TheRealPeaches

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About me I'm an artist. I also trade. In the words of American artist Jeff Koons, "I became a commodities broker so I wouldn't need the art market."
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Markets Allocation
28 % cryptocurrency 18 % forex 8 % indices 46 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BTCUSD 20% | 8 XAUUSD 15% | 6 US30USD 10% | 4 EURUSD 7% | 3
20 0 0
USDJPY, 1W
USDJPY Update: failed breakout

I was initially hoping for the Yen to fall, sparking a breakout of a multi-month consolidation. However, the Yen was one of the few currencies that as actually appreciated versus the dollar, in the face of a technical bullish progression in the USD. Unlike the Euro, the AUD and others, the Yen is trading more like a save haven. Consequently, the breakout was ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches ITA40, 1W, Short ,
10 0 0
ITA40, 1W Short
Italy Has A Problem

Last week saw the break of a bear flag. We are now resting on downtrend support. The chart looks heavy at this point. Italian banks have major exposure to Turkey. Also, Italy threatens to drag the EU under. The Italians are not as docile as the Greeks - they do not care for whatever rules Brussels attempts to impose on them. Thus, my next target for capital ...

18 0 0
US30USD, 1D Long
Dow Jones: Still Bullish (WARNING: Trump rant)

I wrote last week that many stock markets around the world were threatening downtrends. That down move materialized in ITA40, DE30EUR, EU50EUR, JP255USD, among others. These charts have heavy patterns, they all look as if they could give way at any moment. Yet US markets simply consolidated above their breakout areas. The markets are screaming at us that capital ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches XAUUSD, 1D, Long ,
24 0 0
XAUUSD, 1D Long
Gold: Box Breakout or Breakdown?

This is the daily of Gold. Whatever market we're looking at, it's all about the US Dollar - and will continue to be for some time. The DXY has broken above major support. That being the case, I find it inconceivable that Gold should rally... yet, I cannot ignore the bull div forming in Gold. We may be looking at a pause, in which case a breakout of last week's ...

10 0 0
US30USD, 1D
Dow Jones: Reflections Of A Bear

I don't like being bearish. I'm an optimist by nature and like to see things rising. It also says something about my journey as a trader, as I started investing in 2008, at the feet of the financial crash, so I'm used to buying dips and riding upwards. Yet, I find bear opportunities plentiful in forex - EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD. I'm also bearish commodities like ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches ETHUSD, 30, Short ,
40 0 0
ETHUSD, 30 Short
ETHUSD: Bear Continuation

Ethereum has broken trendline support and is now flagging beneath - classic bearish action. A return above the support line would stall downside momentum, otherwise the path of least resistance is down. I'm eyeing the 340 area as first support. From these levels, that's a risk-reward of around 2.5 ...not the best, maybe a better average price can be found on a ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches NZDJPY, 1W, Short ,
23 0 0
NZDJPY, 1W Short
NZDJPY Tempting Breakdown

The NZDJPY is at a major crossroads, tempting the break of multi-year trendline support, dating back to the 2011 low. The last 12-24 months' action seems to foretell an accelerated downturn. My first target is the 69 area, with a risk-reward ratio of around 4.8 Only a break of the succession of lower highs would shift me neutral.

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches ETHUSD, 1W, Long ,
54 0 0
ETHUSD, 1W Long
ETHUSD: 4 week waiting game

Ethereum fails to benefit from Bitcoin's rally. As to what this indicates, I have no idea. It could be investor uncertainty and doubt. Perhaps money is waiting for Bitcoin to pause for breath at a higher level, before it can be re-invested in more speculative cryptos. The trendlines for ETHUSD are easy. We are awaiting a breakout of a 6 week consolidation, of ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches XAUUSD, 1W, Short ,
49 0 0
XAUUSD, 1W Short
GOLD: THE PENULTIMATE ACT

Gold is breaking the final frontier of a multi-year pennant. It is now nestled below trendline resistance and the weekly 200MA. Could this just be a false move? Unfortunately for the Gold bulls, Gold has to contend with a a very bullish USD. Unless the USD is going to make a move to the downside, I cannot see Gold making ANY serious upside traction. And my ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches EURUSD, 1W, Short ,
49 0 0
EURUSD, 1W Short
EURUSD: Pending Short

EURUSD has been churning for 2 months. The triangle consolidation will break. My bet (I'm short) is that it will beak down. I'm not expecting a clean break, as we are nestling above 2015-2016 resistance-turned-support and the weekly 200MA. This might produce a choppy environment. However, once these supports give way, I would expect a swift move to the lower ...

13 0 0
NAS100USD, 1D Short
NASDAQ: bear div confirmed

The story of the NASDAQ is the story of a lot of global equities at this point. The SPX and DE30EUR come to mind. This, among others, is what makes me doubtful of new DJIA highs. I've singled out the NASDAQ because the bearish divergence is the clearest. I favor shorting the NASDAQ on intraday rallies because of this clarity. A break of green support to the ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches BTCUSD, 1D, Long ,
284 0 2
BTCUSD, 1D Long
BITCOIN: the next 3 months

Bitcoin is currently in a holding pattern, between the 200MA and previous resistance-turned-support. As long as we hold this support, we are poised to go higher. First target is the 9500, then around 11000. The most bullish scenario would be to consolidate here for a day or two, pop above the 200MA, which would then act as support on the way up to 11k. Should ...

28 2 1
US30USD, 1D
Dow Jones: WARNING PART II

In my previous post, I was short the DJIA, with the expectation of adding at down trending resistance. I did add, but was quickly stopped out. Now price has broken ABOVE the resistance line, and I'm forced into a neutral position. This means I have no conviction either way, and any trades I take will be 1/3 of my full size. I do not want to be one of these ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches US30USD, 1D, Short ,
35 0 0
US30USD, 1D Short
Dow Jones: WARNING

We are at predictable resistance in DJIA. Last Thursday saw the break of a rising wedge, but Friday offered little follow-through. We are now falling moderately in early Sunday trading (at the time of writing). I was aiming for a test of trendline resistance within the purple box. We can still test this area; either way, I'm betting on a wholesale decline in ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches BTCUSD, 1D, Long ,
258 0 2
BTCUSD, 1D Long
BITCOIN: THE INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS STRIKES AGAIN!

Today was a big day across the board. Big moves in the Nasdaq and currency markets, and of course - Bitcoin. Today Bitcoin confirmed perhaps the cleanest Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern I have seen in a long time. We have popped up almost 10% at the time of writing. Not an insignificant move. The dilemma we now face is where price has stopped - at trendline ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches BTCUSD, 1D, Short ,
134 0 2
BTCUSD, 1D Short
BITCOIN UPDATE: AMBIGUITY

This is the Daily chart of bitcoin. We failed at 6800 resistance, which has given way to a moderate drop, into a level of weak support. There are two ways of reading this pattern - an unresolved inverse H&S pattern, or a signal to lower lows ahead, invalidating the H&S. This brings me to a core concept of technical analysis. The point of TA is to make the ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches CHFJPY, 1W, Long ,
19 0 0
CHFJPY, 1W Long
CHFJPY mini long idea

As the USDJPY breaks out of a major triangle pattern, the CHFJPY is breaking above a smaller multi-week H&S pattern. A target would be around the 116 level, confluence of a measured move and 200 weekly moving average. I won't trade this as my current platform doesn't allow me to set a stop at the week's low. You will find that trading providers offer so-called ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches USDJPY, 1W, Long ,
37 0 0
USDJPY, 1W Long
USDJPY BREAKOUT!

The USDJPY is breaking out of a multi-month triangle. I have entered a long position with a stop below this week's open. I was specifically waiting for this breakout to enter, which I consider just a small addition to my 'long dollar' portfolio. My major shorts are EURUSD, and GBPUSD. If the breakout holds, I will begin to build a larger position in USDJPY. My ...

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