TheRealPeaches

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Bitcoin & Gold
Markets Allocation
30 % cryptocurrency 15 % indices 10 % forex 45 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BTCUSD 25% | 5 XAUUSD 20% | 4 DJI 15% | 3 EURUSD 10% | 2
TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin: BEHOLD A PALE HORSE
131 0 0
BTCUSD, D
Bitcoin: BEHOLD A PALE HORSE

"And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him." There are two successful buying strategies in trading. In the first, you ride the tail of a comet; buying with strong momentum propelling you into the stars, your equity curve buoyed by cherubs. In the second, you watch and wait in monk-like silence, as ...

DJI: Dow Jones Update: WARNING
96 0 1
DJI, W
Dow Jones Update: WARNING

In my last dow update, I was excited because price broke out of an upward wedge - a powerful trend continuation signal. BUT... We quickly lost momentum and fell back down into the wedge and lower. This is NOT a good sign. Bullish formations denied become bearish. The market is scared of the action-packed week's data - specifically the FOMC decision tomorrow. ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin: the triangle that everyone can see
116 0 1
BTCUSD, 240
Bitcoin: the triangle that everyone can see

The triangle: a measured move to the upside takes us to about 15k, and a measured move to the downside would take us to around 7k. Exceeding 13.7k on the upside would avert downside, and depending on the structure, a solid close into the 15k region could be the beginning of a new rally. On the downside, we have monthly, weekly and trendline support. A final ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO DJI, D, Long ,
DJI: DOW JONES ON FIRE
35 0 0
DJI, D Long
DOW JONES ON FIRE

The dow has been trading well within a rising wedge. Rising wedges in bull trends can be very good, or very bad. When price breaks up from a rising wedge, it can be very powerful. DJI gave 3 entries in January. You had to be quick, but you are being generously rewarded. The first was at the start of the year - easy breakout. The second was a small ...

DXY: Dollar: Are We There Yet?
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DXY, M
Dollar: Are We There Yet?

January has seen a collapse in the Dollar. The monthly bear div that formed over last October and November has resolved. Yet, we are in a confluence of horizontal and trend support. Its possible a bounce could materialize here. But... It will be really interesting to see how DXY handles the red resistance line above. It would be textbook for price to bounce, ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold: Top or Breakout?
33 0 0
XAUUSD, D Long
Gold: Top or Breakout?

Gold exceeded the key high set last September, but has since backed away. Thursday printed a rejection of the high, and Friday confirmed that rejection. Since Gold has climbed in January, we have been losing momentum. This, and the bearish divergence in the Stoch/RSI makes it difficult to initiate a long trade here. Taking a look at Silver - not shown - we can ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO SILVER, W, Long ,
SILVER: Silver: Bullish with Caution
11 0 0
SILVER, W Long
Silver: Bullish with Caution

In my last post on Silver I wrote that caution was required. Now we are printing a bullish engulfing for the week - the week isn't over, but if this holds, it portends further upside. The broadening formation over the last few weeks is bullish. The weekly Stoch/RSI is in overbought territory, so perhaps some further grinding might be required to create some ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold: At Resistance
27 0 0
XAUUSD, D Long
Gold: At Resistance

We are now in the take-profit zone I drew in my last Gold post. This is BIG resistance and a break up from this level would be huge. It would break a multi-year consolidation. So what do we do now? A few days of consolidation would be perfect here. Then we can trade the breakout. If you would like to buy here, bare in mind that this is resistance, and you will ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO BTCUSD, M,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin: No Trade
593 4 12
BTCUSD, M
Bitcoin: No Trade

In trading, it is tempting to tell an audience to do something, just as it is tempting to do something yourself. But in trading, doing nothing is never doing nothing. In fact, 90% of trading is patiently waiting. Therefore, I am doing nothing. And in doing nothing, I preserve my capital, my sanity, and leave chart-chasing to the plebs. We are in a DANGEROUS ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Bear Div
86 1 3
BTCUSD, 240 Short
Bitcoin Bear Div

Short BTCUSD update - Bear div on the 4 hour, warning a touch of support in imminent. There is weak support at a lower up trendline, currently at around 13500 area. Below there, 11k comes into play. The last bounce on the 8th was a long entry, but price did not get very far. What can't go up must go down.

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO DXY, M, Short ,
DXY: Long-Term Dollar Index And Where Gold is Heading
48 0 1
DXY, M Short
Long-Term Dollar Index And Where Gold is Heading

Here is the monthly chart of the DXY, going back to 2003. Look at how beautifully the Dollar obeys the parallel lines. There is the dominant downtrend (white), and the secondary uptrend (green). The chart is obeying the logic of both lines. Which one will prevail in 2018? Price broke out of a wedge in 2014 and rallied hard, peaking at the end of 2016, and ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Update
20 0 1
EURUSD, D Long
EURUSD Update

The Euro as fallen back from resistance at the significant 1.21 area. A three day correction is normal. We should expect tomorrow to be green, given that we are close to support. A bounce at this zone would look great for continuation. I'm long and bullish the Euro until 1.25. I break below 1.18 would invalidate my bullish thesis, and would put EURUSD in neutral.

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO BTCUSD, 240, Long ,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Update
377 1 1
BTCUSD, 240 Long
Bitcoin Update

This is the 4 hour chart of Bitcoin, Bitfinex. The bearish divergence at the recent lower high gave way to a fast drop, which has bounced where it needed to bounce. We are currently tentatively trading up. We now have a new wedge. Typically, I lose money in these environments. I like clean, easy trades. I do not enjoy scalping within a range. Yet, this is all ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold Update
28 0 0
XAUUSD, D Long
Gold Update

This is the daily chart of Gold. The impressive rally has stalled at the median line of a larger multi-month fork (not entirely visible here). We've made several tests of this line before, and the chart seems to respect this angle. Therefore, some test of support should be expected. I'm more cautious than usual, given that we're losing momentum on the Stoch/RSI, ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO XAGUSD, M, Long ,
XAGUSD: Happy New Year: Silver
46 0 0
XAGUSD, M Long
Happy New Year: Silver

Just a quick note with Silver, monthly chart. As with Gold, we have the same rounded bottom formation. We also have a break of a longterm down trendline, which is now acting as support. We should at least expect a test of the 18-19 area. However, 19 presents potent resistance. Breaking and closing above 19 on a monthly basis could shift the whole structure, and ...

DJI: Happy New Year: Dow Jones
63 0 1
DJI, W
Happy New Year: Dow Jones

It is a cryptocurrency? No, its a weekly chart of the Dow Jones. Parabolas do happen in other markets too. Yet, I come into 2018 with a sense of caution. I'm flat, so I can either buy, sell or do nothing. The thought of buying the Dow when it is so far from the 200 MA is gambling. To sell here would also be gambling. It may fall, or it may just keep going. So, ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: Happy New Year: Bitcoin
442 0 6
BTCUSD, D Short
Happy New Year: Bitcoin

An epic bull run should rightfully be followed by an epic bullish consolidation. This is what I believe will form in Bitcoin in January. The thought of making a fast move from here seems least likely. Not enough longs have been cleared, and the market lacks triggers to spark a panic. A more likely scenario would be a bullish wedge formation. These formations ...

TheRealPeaches TheRealPeaches PRO XAUUSD, M, Long ,
XAUUSD: Happy New Year: Gold
80 0 1
XAUUSD, M Long
Happy New Year: Gold

This is the monthly chart of Gold. Gold finished 2017 with a promising bullish tone. Gold had the opportunity to test support at the trendline formed from the 2015 low. It did not do this. Instead, it broke support at a steeper trendline, and reversed sharply in December. This implies that it was a false breakout to the downside (yellow circle), which has ...

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