A look into the SPY: Are we sold on a full reversal yet?
3Day Chart-
With 1 day left, the shadow of the candle kissed the 50 EMA. Even with a close ABOVE its previous candles close but BELOW its current candle shadow low this should be seen as bearish. This would print a Shooting Star. 444.39 would be the level to watch for this scenario.
3Day Chart
Bulls will want to see a close above the previous candles swing high at 446.46 at a minimum. Best case would be a close above the mid Feb swing high at 448 or better a close above the 50 EMA.
1Day Chart
March 14 22' there was a 50/200 EMA cross under. Since then there has been a bit of a rally. 4 days ago, the Daily candle printed above the 50 EMA and 2 days ago above the 200 EMA. In between a Doji printed, kissing both the 200 and 40 EMA signifying major uncertainty.
1 Day Chart
If the Daily candle prints at or below 445.50(ish) then we could view this as 1 Black Crow. My best gut feel says its this happens, then selling pressure may be more likely than not to continue through Friday.
A note to bulls: this scenario would be OK as long as the .786 Fib is ultimately respected. A healthy .382 is a more likely retracement, but keep in mind the worst case break point at 423.24. Any retracement is fine as long as a HIGHER low is set. Those sweet spots IMO are the above 2 I mentioned.
1 Day Chart
Ultimately, bulls want a close over the 200 EMA and bears under the 200 EMA.
Here is a link to the 1 Week and 1 Month chart, comments below.
Weekly Chart
The SPY weekly candle should close above previous swing high candle body resistance around 449.
Weekly Chart
453 is marked as resistance, as seen created locally in November. Nov-Jan it acted as support, but now broken it is viewed as resistance. This break of support to resistance happened in a breakout(down) of a major ascending level of supported created April 2020 as the market was recovering from the "covid" crash.
Weekly Chart
Best case for bulls: EOW rally to close the current weekly candle above 453.
Best case for bears would be a weekly close with no lower shadow around 440 or a close below the 50 EMA
A close of around 445-446 would print a Doji, meaning indecision in which patience is advised.
Monthly Chart
Best case for bulls is a close above its previous monthly candle high at 451. This would print a Bullish Engulfing candle.
Best case for bears is a close below 423. 423 is a level back in May 21 that acted as resistance and helped create a Doji (indecision). This setup would look similar to a 3 Black Crowes reversal pattern
The market has most certainly shown bullish signs, but IMHO this is a critical juncture that will shows us further signs of market recovery or turmoil.
With 1 day left, the shadow of the candle kissed the 50 EMA. Even with a close ABOVE its previous candles close but BELOW its current candle shadow low this should be seen as bearish. This would print a Shooting Star. 444.39 would be the level to watch for this scenario.
3Day Chart
Bulls will want to see a close above the previous candles swing high at 446.46 at a minimum. Best case would be a close above the mid Feb swing high at 448 or better a close above the 50 EMA.
1Day Chart
March 14 22' there was a 50/200 EMA cross under. Since then there has been a bit of a rally. 4 days ago, the Daily candle printed above the 50 EMA and 2 days ago above the 200 EMA. In between a Doji printed, kissing both the 200 and 40 EMA signifying major uncertainty.
1 Day Chart
If the Daily candle prints at or below 445.50(ish) then we could view this as 1 Black Crow. My best gut feel says its this happens, then selling pressure may be more likely than not to continue through Friday.
A note to bulls: this scenario would be OK as long as the .786 Fib is ultimately respected. A healthy .382 is a more likely retracement, but keep in mind the worst case break point at 423.24. Any retracement is fine as long as a HIGHER low is set. Those sweet spots IMO are the above 2 I mentioned.
1 Day Chart
Ultimately, bulls want a close over the 200 EMA and bears under the 200 EMA.
Here is a link to the 1 Week and 1 Month chart, comments below.
Weekly Chart
The SPY weekly candle should close above previous swing high candle body resistance around 449.
Weekly Chart
453 is marked as resistance, as seen created locally in November. Nov-Jan it acted as support, but now broken it is viewed as resistance. This break of support to resistance happened in a breakout(down) of a major ascending level of supported created April 2020 as the market was recovering from the "covid" crash.
Weekly Chart
Best case for bulls: EOW rally to close the current weekly candle above 453.
Best case for bears would be a weekly close with no lower shadow around 440 or a close below the 50 EMA
A close of around 445-446 would print a Doji, meaning indecision in which patience is advised.
Monthly Chart
Best case for bulls is a close above its previous monthly candle high at 451. This would print a Bullish Engulfing candle.
Best case for bears is a close below 423. 423 is a level back in May 21 that acted as resistance and helped create a Doji (indecision). This setup would look similar to a 3 Black Crowes reversal pattern
The market has most certainly shown bullish signs, but IMHO this is a critical juncture that will shows us further signs of market recovery or turmoil.