SPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash.
*October CPI rose 0.4%, the same increase as in September; but what moved markets was that Core CPI rose 0.3% compared to 0.6% in September. Such an impulsive rally after one dovish CPI print is hardly sustainable in a bear market; however, if the UofM Sentiment Survey tomorrow is bullish and Russia renews their grain deal with Ukraine on 11/19, this rally may be able to continue into the PCE report on 12/01. Equities finished up in today's session and Equity Futures, Oil, Agriculture, DXY, Long-Term US Treasuries, HSI, NI225 and CNYUSD are up. Cryptos are correcting after many experienced a ~20% rally in today's session. VIX, Natural Gas, Gold, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are down. Russia ordered their citizens to evacuate Kherson City in anticipation of a Ukrainian shelling that would level the whole city, this of course is probably another False Flag operation because Ukraine likely has no interest in destroying their own infrastructure. Ukrainian military officials cast their doubts over such a retreat and think it's a ploy to lure Ukrainian soldiers into a central location to maximize inflicted damage.
Key Upcoming Dates: UofM November US Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .*
Price finished today's session trending up at $3956, it's still technically testing $3913 minor resistance and will need to close above it in tomorrow's session to help confirm bullishness; considering that Price appears to be legitimately breaking above the 50MA for the first time since 07/19, it may test it as support before continuing higher. Volume finished the session High (moderate) and obviously after a bullish CPI when inflation is the number one market focus, it favored buyers; Price is trading in the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3700, this is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 with no signs of peak formation as it approaches a retest of $4058 minor resistance. Stochastic resisted a bearish crossover in Wednesday's session and is currently trending up at 60, it's still technically testing 48 minor resistance. MACD remains bullish after also resisting a bearish crossover in Wednesday's session and is currently trending up at 21 as it attempts to confirm a break above 11 minor resistance. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 17 as Price has been pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to flip $3913 minor resistance to support then the next likely target is a retest of $4058 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3913 minor resistance, it will likely retest ~$3855 as support before potentially falling lower to test the 50MA as support at ~$3800. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3913.
*October CPI rose 0.4%, the same increase as in September; but what moved markets was that Core CPI rose 0.3% compared to 0.6% in September. Such an impulsive rally after one dovish CPI print is hardly sustainable in a bear market; however, if the UofM Sentiment Survey tomorrow is bullish and Russia renews their grain deal with Ukraine on 11/19, this rally may be able to continue into the PCE report on 12/01. Equities finished up in today's session and Equity Futures, Oil, Agriculture, DXY, Long-Term US Treasuries, HSI, NI225 and CNYUSD are up. Cryptos are correcting after many experienced a ~20% rally in today's session. VIX, Natural Gas, Gold, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are down. Russia ordered their citizens to evacuate Kherson City in anticipation of a Ukrainian shelling that would level the whole city, this of course is probably another False Flag operation because Ukraine likely has no interest in destroying their own infrastructure. Ukrainian military officials cast their doubts over such a retreat and think it's a ploy to lure Ukrainian soldiers into a central location to maximize inflicted damage.
Key Upcoming Dates: UofM November US Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .*
Price finished today's session trending up at $3956, it's still technically testing $3913 minor resistance and will need to close above it in tomorrow's session to help confirm bullishness; considering that Price appears to be legitimately breaking above the 50MA for the first time since 07/19, it may test it as support before continuing higher. Volume finished the session High (moderate) and obviously after a bullish CPI when inflation is the number one market focus, it favored buyers; Price is trading in the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3700, this is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 with no signs of peak formation as it approaches a retest of $4058 minor resistance. Stochastic resisted a bearish crossover in Wednesday's session and is currently trending up at 60, it's still technically testing 48 minor resistance. MACD remains bullish after also resisting a bearish crossover in Wednesday's session and is currently trending up at 21 as it attempts to confirm a break above 11 minor resistance. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 17 as Price has been pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to flip $3913 minor resistance to support then the next likely target is a retest of $4058 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3913 minor resistance, it will likely retest ~$3855 as support before potentially falling lower to test the 50MA as support at ~$3800. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3913.