S&P 500 Forming head and shoulders and is expected to have another leg up within the new few months to a peak of $3000 marked in yellow. Before we see the reversal and start to fall to the target areas we have shown. S&P 500 has been on a Major bull run since 2012 and is now expecting to curve the momentum.
The SPXUSD (the perpetual contract of the SP 500) is somewhat of an indicator for domestic US investor sentiment. In comparison, I consider the DJIA to be an indicator of foreign capital flows to the US.
The US appears to be triggered by the nomination of a Supreme Court judge, or rather, the slander and innuendo associated with the nomination... and despite all...
The SP 500 is stair-stepping up parallel support lines, whilst butting up against parallel lines set by March intraday lows. This is technically bullish, and implies that a breakout to the next parallel line is in the cards.
The only concerning point is the successive Stoch RSI bearish divergence. While excessively bullish markets will ignore bearish divergence...
It's always better to wisely chose your index, to short the weakest, and buy the strongest. I think by comparing performance between SPX/NASDAQ we could better chose the index. Currently the NASDAQ is the strongest index. But my analysis is showing a reverse is possible and NASDAQ could become weaker than SPX in the next weeks.
SPX500USD short 2610 levels. This level is half the previous decreasing correction wave. I expect a steady increase from the 2610 level. For the first purpose of the rise 2881.
Using the Relative Strength Indicator the S&P500 is showing the third strongest run in 40 years... and surpassing the other two in Nov-1995 and Mar-1986. But don't try to call the top...
In each case the S&P500 made higher gains, and momentum actually faded significantly before any major pullback.
Major pullbacks are preceded by consolidating ranges (i.e....
Let's zoom out and have a look at long-term horizon of the SPX500...
It's still in a upwards move with Higher-High's and Higher-Low's however June closed with a pin-bar.
Could this be the end for the Bulls and are Bears lurking around the corner?
The 20/50 EMA are not touching at the moment and the June pin-bar closed higher (green) ... I think it's aiming for...
We have updated our monthly publication - US Sectors Relative to S&P500.
It is an overview of the major US sectors, and covers, amongst others, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Healthcare, Technology and Financials.
Within several ratings changes, we have Downgraded Financials to Underweight.
On an absolute basis, the US Financials ETF XLF is...
There are further signs of bullish trend development in the VIX.
Prices are now trading above congestion around 15.00 as momentum studies post positive divergence and continue to strengthen. The proprietary Tension Indicator (not shown) is also improving.
In the coming months, expectations are for higher levels to attract, with focus turning to congestion around...
Bullish sentiment in the US S&P500 Index is fading. Risk/reward is turning lower, as overbought momentum studies unwind and the Tension Indicator (not shown) continues to weaken.
The break below the 2351.31 gap low of 17 February has been seen, with focus now on the 2326.10, (23.6%) Fibonacci retracement and the 2319.23 gap low of 10 February. Deeper reactions...
GBP/USD and SPX are closely related. The chart comparison of SPX versus GBP/USD show a fairly negative correlation.
This is odd, and unusual to history, because it implies that USD is positively correlated with the SPX. Its a strange situation where rate hikes are interpreted as 'good' for the market.
With this in mind, a sell-off in SPX would undermine the...
Further downside likely:
Price is fading and losing momentum on the higher lows these last two days. Support at 2345 looks stressed. 2360 is key resistance and is establishing a downward trend - definitely watch how price behaves on a rally 2353.
Key notes on the chart.
If you're already short (I have been explaining why I was short last week) then holding a little longer may be fruitful - the price consolidating at this low of 2338 is telling of a further sell-off.
It tells me the market is still in shock from this rapid sell-off yesterday, with a bid temporarily propping up prices. Non-professional investors will likely...
Earlier charts showwe initiated a short at 2390. Our bearish view holds for these reasons:
1. 13th Feb to 13th Mar S&P500 traded in a short-term trend (blue dotted) that was diverging from its Relative prices (the RSI below).
2. On the 7th Mar it broke this trend, and the same trend turned from support to resistance. This was clearest at 2390 on the 13th.
3....
US Equities remain at elevated levels, with prices extending the November 2016 rally to reach 2400.
However, immediate continuation is expected to find difficulty reaching the 2460~, (200%) projection of the 2015-2016 fall, as overbought short-term studies unwind and monthly stochastics continue to unfold in extreme levels.
The progressively steepening...
Bullish sentiment in the US S&P500 Index remains intact, but prices are finding difficulty sustaining the test of 2400. Risk/reward is turning lower, as overbought momentum studies unwind and the bullish Tension Indicator shows signs of fading.
A break below the 2351.31 gap low of 17 February is looked for, with focus then turning to the 2319.23 gap low of 10...
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