U.S. non-farm payrolls rose 236K in March, just under the 240K expected and less than the 326K added in February (revised from +311K). Jobs growth in March was well below the average monthly gains of 344K over the past six months.
While the headline number suggests that jobs growth rate is cooling, the unemployment rate, slipping to 3.5% from 3.6% in February, indicated a tighter labor market. That compared with the consensus estimate of 3.6%.
At the same time, the labor market is bringing in more workers who had been sitting on the sidelines.
Stocks had been wobbly earlier last week in response to signs of a slowing economy, including weak data on private payrolls and job openings. That marked a change from previous sentiment, when investors cheered weak economic numbers in the hope that the Federal Reserve might ease up on its campaign of interest rate hikes. Now, the market seems to be struggling to decide whether recession worries or rate hike worries are more meaningful to stock prices.
Chart: SPX daily and 15 mins
The week begins slowly with many markets across the world observing the Easter Monday holiday. However, the quiet start serves as a calm before the storm as not only key CPI and PPI prints are due in mid-week, but a host of key earnings reports. Inflation data and FOMC mins will be released on April 12th, as mentioned before, the market seems to be struggling to decide whether recession worries or rate hike worries. Therefore, the market will be moving sideways around 4070-4105ish level.
Chart: SPX weekly and daily
From the tech side of analysis, even though 8&21 EMAs from daily have been catching up, but the overall market is still extended from 8&21 EMA weekly basis. From weekly chart, it already made a higher pivot lows, therefore, how to deal with prior weekly resistance 4150ish is the key for the market. And from the daily chart, it holds 8 EMA so well, and since the market is struggling, so I think it will not break last Tuesday's high in next two days.
While the headline number suggests that jobs growth rate is cooling, the unemployment rate, slipping to 3.5% from 3.6% in February, indicated a tighter labor market. That compared with the consensus estimate of 3.6%.
At the same time, the labor market is bringing in more workers who had been sitting on the sidelines.
Stocks had been wobbly earlier last week in response to signs of a slowing economy, including weak data on private payrolls and job openings. That marked a change from previous sentiment, when investors cheered weak economic numbers in the hope that the Federal Reserve might ease up on its campaign of interest rate hikes. Now, the market seems to be struggling to decide whether recession worries or rate hike worries are more meaningful to stock prices.
The week begins slowly with many markets across the world observing the Easter Monday holiday. However, the quiet start serves as a calm before the storm as not only key CPI and PPI prints are due in mid-week, but a host of key earnings reports. Inflation data and FOMC mins will be released on April 12th, as mentioned before, the market seems to be struggling to decide whether recession worries or rate hike worries. Therefore, the market will be moving sideways around 4070-4105ish level.
From the tech side of analysis, even though 8&21 EMAs from daily have been catching up, but the overall market is still extended from 8&21 EMA weekly basis. From weekly chart, it already made a higher pivot lows, therefore, how to deal with prior weekly resistance 4150ish is the key for the market. And from the daily chart, it holds 8 EMA so well, and since the market is struggling, so I think it will not break last Tuesday's high in next two days.
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