As we predicted, QQQ give a shooter on daily chart, which can be interpreted as "market is struggling and choosing direction".
Today, all eyes will be focus on March CPI data and FOMC mins.
The inflation data due out on Wednesday will offer a signal as to whether the central bank will raise or pause interest rates in May -- one of the biggest debates on Wall Street.
Economists expect March's headline CPI to rise 0.2% from the month before, down from the 0.4% pace recorded in February. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to climb 5.2% vs. 6.0% in February. Stripping out the volatile food and energy sectors, core CPI is expected to advance 0.4% M/M vs. the 0.5% February reading, and 5.6% vs. 5.5%.
While the headline print would mark the slowest annual increase since May 2021, it would still be more than double the Fed's 2% inflation objective. The monthly increases in consumer price inflation for January and February also do not inspire confidence that 2% is just around the corner. That gap means another 25-basis-point rate hike will likely take hold at the Federal Open Market Committee's May 2-3 meeting, in a scenario that fed funds futures are largely pricing in, bringing the policy rate target range to 5.0%-5.25%. Of note, Y/Y core CPI is expected to run hotter than the headline number for the first time, and this still indicates that the FED still have a long way to go.
Another interesting data I found online was "BEAR RELOAD on Equity Shorts" it says "Hedge funds are reloading on bearish wagers on US equities, betting the latest market retreat will persist amid worsening economic data and corporate earnings."
I don't wanna join the debate, therefore, I choose to join the "clearest" one I saw on charts. As what I draw on chart, SPX had been tried to break its 4150ish weekly resistance level couple times, Monday was the best chance to make a "higher highs" on daily chart, but failed. Therefore, yesterday's hesitation make it looks like a double top on 15 mins charts. Therefore, if the CPI data could not give us huge surprise, I will consider join the short side.
