Everything down due to high inflation/ rate hikes/bond. Over extended market was no surprise from COVID. SPX down 20%, bull div on daily RIS, ready for a 10% relief bounce to a lower high.
If I had to put a number on each potential outcome from my very limited experience:
10% chance we see full market recovery (2018)
20% The New Great Depression
20% similar to 2008 crisis (to soon to tell but 80% chance something breaks but everyone seems to be aware so hard to say)
60% prolonged bear market.
All that being said, in my gut, I feel like the most likely outcome is going to be that something breaks in the credit market and this is the beginning of the next 'crisis' for the history books lets call this one "The Global Debt Bubble".
My bias:
-Investments at this moment 60%+ in cash 10% BTC 30% equities
-feeling over exposed to equities ( bought the dip to early)
-bought 5% of BTC at $46,000 bullish fake out 5% around $30,000
-looking for an entry in bonds but looking like it would be a short term trade because I don't see how interest rates can go down with how high inflation is.
-fundamental perma-bear on the current financial system
-I am a pessimist
-spookily close to the 100 year anniversary of the great depression
If I had to put a number on each potential outcome from my very limited experience:
10% chance we see full market recovery (2018)
20% The New Great Depression
20% similar to 2008 crisis (to soon to tell but 80% chance something breaks but everyone seems to be aware so hard to say)
60% prolonged bear market.
All that being said, in my gut, I feel like the most likely outcome is going to be that something breaks in the credit market and this is the beginning of the next 'crisis' for the history books lets call this one "The Global Debt Bubble".
My bias:
-Investments at this moment 60%+ in cash 10% BTC 30% equities
-feeling over exposed to equities ( bought the dip to early)
-bought 5% of BTC at $46,000 bullish fake out 5% around $30,000
-looking for an entry in bonds but looking like it would be a short term trade because I don't see how interest rates can go down with how high inflation is.
-fundamental perma-bear on the current financial system
-I am a pessimist
-spookily close to the 100 year anniversary of the great depression