merchtank19

merchtank19

As much as I love BTC for a insurance policy against government debt, it is still subject to human nature. Fear and Greed. And with proxy exposure to the function of all financial markets, liquidity. I want to believe that we have seen the worst that is to come for now but at this point it feels like sticking my head in the sand. How can we not see a correction...

merchtank19

WARNING!!!! Chart may induce seizures I have some serious chart shame about this one but IDC my point is still valid (I moved my magic bold white line ) I think I'm calling it, Bitcoin bear over. as soon as the weekly moving averages started trending up @ the yellow arrows, despite all of what's going on in the world I turned bullish. I'm scared. Feelings...

merchtank19 Updated 

And update to one of my previous bitcoin cycle charts. I KNOW ITS VERY BUSY, I HAVE ADHD! (and my charts are for me anyways.. i know what i mean) Over simplification: Bitcoin bottoms Mid Jan 13 2015, Mid Dec 2018, so now it must bottom Mid Nov 2022 Bitcoin still only down 70%ish needs to go down >80%ish All this correlates with my magic thick white ...

merchtank19

Short term trading plan: Trade the possible range Red = Sell Blue = Neutral Green = Buy Overall market still very bearish Probabilities: SPX: New lower low = 80%, Test Lows = 15%, Lows are in = 5% Crypto: New lower low = 60%, Test Lows = 35%, Lows are in = 5% (This one is hard for me)

merchtank19

Channel? Lets see what happens, might be a good continuation channel

merchtank19

White vertical = RSI over bought >73 Green vertical = Spx market bottom I keep hearing all over," dxy is over bought, oil is falling, market recovery soon". Stumbled on this correlation, DXY/USOIL RSI >73 on the weekly = prelude to a market bottom since 2000. In all reality, this market is like none we have seen in decades so this time may very well not work...

merchtank19

-Build short position against BTC until options expire (June 30th) after this I expect downside to increase sharply -US markets look horrific & FED tightening cycle (FED hikes, high inflation (demand destruction), Bonds already tightened market, oh yeah.. and Quantitative tightening) To soon to call BTC bottom at $12,500 USD?? - 80% drawdown from Cycle top...

merchtank19

Everything down due to high inflation/ rate hikes/bond. Over extended market was no surprise from COVID. SPX down 20%, bull div on daily RIS, ready for a 10% relief bounce to a lower high. If I had to put a number on each potential outcome from my very limited experience: 10% chance we see full market recovery (2018) 20% The New Great Depression 20% similar to...

merchtank19

self explanatory

merchtank19

Drew this line as a half joke in april, becoming spookily accurate

merchtank19

Almost looks like a long...breakout in the next week or 2 Buy or sell the breakout

merchtank19

Again for my own accountability

merchtank19

Posting this for myself (accountability) I know I can head down the rabbit hole of finding similarities (seeing what I want to see) will be using this info for planning in the nest few months I would buy $7800 Based on this I would expect to see a break out Sept/Oct. unless something drastic changes(second wave of stock market crash) Im stuck at a 50/50 with...

merchtank19

Im currently short. looking for a retest where my long entry is. so I will be buying to close my short there, then looking for a good long entry to prepare for the inevitable bullish breakout to all time highs! Getting excited, everything looks like its finally falling into place. Going full Degen here

merchtank19

Fingers crossed on this one. but I have a good entry High risk high reward! looking for it to hit the other side of the descending channel before reversing and breaking out to the upside and dreaming of a continuation and alt season at the same time?? Lets go!

merchtank19

I like the state if the market and a nice bullish divergence on the Daily RSI. Very good Risk vs Reward. I think its a horrible project tbh, no faith In them at all... but if they can give me more BTC.. I DONT CARE!!

merchtank19

Macro long, looking for the best possible entry for trend reversal. take some profit at 3-4R then start loading up on retracements It looks like ill be maxing out my bitmex account. >;)

merchtank19

Just realized I referenced this chart without posting. This was what I was referring to. I made this chart up a month or two ago trying to see where we could bounce. #hindsightrading (JK)