NZDUSD - Breakout Of A Range?
Analysis:
From the charts we can clearly see that price was stuck in a range until recently where we saw a breakout to the downside signalling to us that there is downwards momentum. With this bias we're only looking for shorts on this pair. Price has since returned to our area of interested, giving us the opportunity to look for shorts from this area. Why this area? Well for added confluence we also have the 50% fib retracement level which has been tagged and which we expect to hold and for sellers to continue to push price down further. Our second added confluence that we have is the downwards trendline that is clearly present on the chart. We expect that this trendline will be respected meaning that price will head to the downside. When we look at the fundamentals these also go in our favour. The USD is stronger then the NZD with the USD being the 2nd strongest major currency compared to the NZD which is the 4th strongest major currency so this helps our idea. For more confidence in this setup the NZD had an increase in short positions meaning that more institutions are starting to short the NZD. Now institutions have access to a lot more data then we do so there must be a reason why they are starting to short the NZD whereas we actually see an increase in both long and short positions on the USD. Although this isn't a positive it also isn't a negative as there are still institutions entering long positions on the USD. With all of the data we have access to and taking a look at the technicals and the fundamentals we are bearish on this pair!
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
From the charts we can clearly see that price was stuck in a range until recently where we saw a breakout to the downside signalling to us that there is downwards momentum. With this bias we're only looking for shorts on this pair. Price has since returned to our area of interested, giving us the opportunity to look for shorts from this area. Why this area? Well for added confluence we also have the 50% fib retracement level which has been tagged and which we expect to hold and for sellers to continue to push price down further. Our second added confluence that we have is the downwards trendline that is clearly present on the chart. We expect that this trendline will be respected meaning that price will head to the downside. When we look at the fundamentals these also go in our favour. The USD is stronger then the NZD with the USD being the 2nd strongest major currency compared to the NZD which is the 4th strongest major currency so this helps our idea. For more confidence in this setup the NZD had an increase in short positions meaning that more institutions are starting to short the NZD. Now institutions have access to a lot more data then we do so there must be a reason why they are starting to short the NZD whereas we actually see an increase in both long and short positions on the USD. Although this isn't a positive it also isn't a negative as there are still institutions entering long positions on the USD. With all of the data we have access to and taking a look at the technicals and the fundamentals we are bearish on this pair!
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Trade active:
Price has met our entry criteria and our order has been filled so we are now short on this pair looking for price to continue with the downwards momentum we've started to see!
Comment:
We got some news yesterday for the USD which ended up being slightly negative and we've seen our trade go into a little bit of drawdown however this is perfectly fine with us and normal. Later today we have FOMC which will have a big impact on this trade so this is something we'll be watching out for and we'll be sure to keep you updated on our positions.
Trade closed: stop reached:
For full transparency and honesty we'll tell you when a trade hits our stop loss. We're actual traders. We take losses, everybody does. If anyone tried to claim that they don't then they are lying to you. This trade was a valid setup that fit our proven profitable strategy. With that being said however this trade did result in a -1R result. We had some news come out for the USD which wasn't as good as expected so it had a negative affect on this trade resulting in us being stopped out. Just because we've taken a loss it doesn't mean we're going to stress about it. Instead we're just going to look for the next opportunity!
JPI
JPI