EUR/USD -14/9/2023-

• All technical indicators are pointing to a bearish picture for the Euro
• First, the price broke below an ascending channel since January
• Second, the series of higher lows is being questioned as we are trading at the previous swing low at 1.0630 and bulls really need to defend that level to gain traction
• Third, the price is trading below the 200 MA for more than a week without even testing that level back
• The 2021-2022 1.5 year long down trend was followed by almost a yearly rally which stopped very close to the 61.8% level of that decline, which questions whether the yearly rally that we have seen recently is a major bullish trend or just a correction for the previous major bearish trend
• The level 1.0630 is critical in this scenario and if bears successfully break below it, next support will be 1.05 followed by 1.0220
• Today's dovish ECB statement and Lagarde speech supports the bearish picture as the Euro area growth is slowing and forecasts for the coming months and year remain tilted to the downside