EUR/USD...EUR in trouble? Key level approaching
I'm sure you've seen the headlines regarding the world's most popular trading pair. To say its doom and gloom is probably an understatement, and why shouldn't it be?
The EU commission slashed EU zone growth forecasts and the market reacted with its worst 2-week decline since September. Predictably, the scapegoat for the negative forecast was none other than "trade tensions" and Chinese growth concerns (are we ever going to stop hearing this?). Further, the report predicted a a rise in core inflation due to wage growth. It appears nearly a decade of QE is taking its toll and the market can care less about seven straight years of growth.
The technical outlook appears to rest near the 1.13 zone should we continue to slide further. The Euro Group meeting on Monday may provide some more direction, followed by German and EU GDP on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The problem with any fundamental releases at this point is they are more than likely priced in; it appears the EU Commission has already tipped its hand from a directional view.
Should price break below the 1.13 zone, the 1.12 zone is a reasonable target area if one decides to short. If we see a bounce up, I would be cautious and probably see this more as a pull back short opportunity.
The EU commission slashed EU zone growth forecasts and the market reacted with its worst 2-week decline since September. Predictably, the scapegoat for the negative forecast was none other than "trade tensions" and Chinese growth concerns (are we ever going to stop hearing this?). Further, the report predicted a a rise in core inflation due to wage growth. It appears nearly a decade of QE is taking its toll and the market can care less about seven straight years of growth.
The technical outlook appears to rest near the 1.13 zone should we continue to slide further. The Euro Group meeting on Monday may provide some more direction, followed by German and EU GDP on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The problem with any fundamental releases at this point is they are more than likely priced in; it appears the EU Commission has already tipped its hand from a directional view.
Should price break below the 1.13 zone, the 1.12 zone is a reasonable target area if one decides to short. If we see a bounce up, I would be cautious and probably see this more as a pull back short opportunity.