EUR/USD -3/5/2023-

• Euro Dollar is trading in a tight range between 1.09 and 1.11
• Bulls and bears are in balance, awaiting this week's key rate decisions for fresh impetus
• Technical setup is pointing towards a breakout soon and odds are 50 50
• We can see an ascending triangle and the price action is shrinking as we move through the cradle of the triangle
• This pattern is questionable since we usually see an upward preceding move before the triangle formation which is not the case here
• Whether the triangle formation is valid or no, we got an ascending trend line which has been tested in March and a resistance area between mid 1.10s and 1.11
• Bulls are trying to break above 1.11 from current levels, and might see a better opportunity if the price re-tests the trend line support.
• Bears need a clear break below the 20 MA and the trend line in question to flip the odds in their favor
• Two factors can negate the long term bullish trend:
1- Breaking below the ascending trend line with a clear confirmation ( several daily closes below with an increased volume )
2- Trading below mid 1.05s which breaks the higher lows series that's been forming since last November.
• This week is full of key events and economic data: FED and ECB are gonna release their rate decisions along with their forward guidance on the path of tightening policy
• NFP report on Friday
• Markets are expecting 25 bps from both central banks but keep in mind that surprises can always occur, just like the surprise rate hike from RBA last night

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