EUR/USD: Strategic Insights - Bullish Patterns - FOMC

The EUR/USD pair has embarked on the final day of January with a notable bullish impulse, setting the stage for potential market shifts during the London session. Wednesday's Asian session witnessed another test of the crucial 1.08000 support level, marking a strategic entry point. The price action suggests the emergence of a Double Bottom setup, with indicators such as a stochastic RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart within a bearish channel and a recent rebound off a daily dynamic trendline adding to the intrigue.

On the 1-hour timeframe chart, the Euro (EUR) has initiated a bullish move from the 61.8% Fibonacci area. This development potentially serves as a confirmation pattern aligning with our earlier double bottom thesis observed on the 4-hour timeframe.

Quasimodo Bullish Pattern ( Reversal )

However, as the market dynamics unfold, various factors are contributing to the pair's movements. The JOLTS report released on Tuesday indicated an unexpected increase in US job openings to 9.02 million in December. This unforeseen strength in the labor market may influence the Federal Reserve (Fed) to refrain from initiating interest rate cuts in the first quarter, lending support to the resilient US Dollar (USD). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about China's economic challenges are additional elements boosting the safe-haven appeal of the USD and exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Despite the prevailing headwinds, the recent dip in US Treasury bond yields might temper the enthusiasm of USD bulls, particularly with the highly-anticipated FOMC monetary policy decision looming on the horizon. Concurrently, uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank's (ECB) potential interest rate adjustments could act as a tailwind for the Euro (EUR). This complex interplay of factors might curtail further depreciation of the EUR/USD pair, aligning with our optimistic outlook and anticipation of a bullish position on the Euro.

As we navigate the month-end market swings, traders are advised to remain vigilant, considering both global economic indicators and geopolitical events that could influence the currency pair's trajectory. The balance of these factors will likely shape the EUR/USD landscape in the coming sessions, making strategic positioning and risk management crucial for traders seeking opportunities in this dynamic forex market.


Our Idea:

Long positions above 1.06700 with entry at 1.08000 and targets at 1.1000 & 1.1150 in extension.