Here is what the fundamentals are following the ECB rate decision today, words from ©Lloyds Bank
European Central Bank (Dec): We're not pivoting
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates today by 50bps, in line with expectations. It follows 75bp hikes in the last two meetings in September and October, and a 50bp rise in July. There was broad agreement (not unanimity) on the decision and it brings the deposit rate up to 2%. There were similar increases in the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate to 2.5% and 2.75%, respectively. Policy rates have been raised by a total of 250bp since July (Chart 1).
Although the hiking pace was reduced today, the ECB warned that interest rates will “still have to rise significantly” and that they will be kept at “restrictive levels” to dampen demand and guard against second-round effects on inflation. President Christine Lagarde indicated that more 50bp rises could occur early next year (the next update is on 2 February). She said, “we’re not pivoting” and that the ECB is “in for a long game” and there is more ground to cover.
Current inflation was described as “far too high” (Chart 4) and forecast to stay above target for what is seen as “too long”. The ECB’s new quarterly economic projections upgraded inflation for 2023 to 6.3% (from 5.5%) and for 2024 to 3.4% (from 2.3%). The first forecast for 2025 is 2.3%, still above the 2% target (Chart 2). The ECB envisages a “short and shallow” recession – while next year’s GDP growth was revised down to 0.5%, it remains above the consensus forecast (Chart 3).
Detail on the start of quantitative tightening (QT) – the reversal of QE – was also provided today. The ECB said that from March it will no longer reinvest fully the proceeds from maturing assets held in its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) portfolio. From March until the end of Q2 next year, the average decline will be €15bn a month, meaning that about half of estimated redemptions wil be reinvested (Chart 7). This degree of detail could also be interpreted as hawkish, because it reinforces the impetus to reduce the ECB’s balance sheet (Chart 6).
Overall, while today’s interest rate decision was expected, the messaging was nevertheless surprisingly hawkish. There seems to be increasing disquiet about persistent upside surprises to inflation and the extended period in which it is expected to remain above target, while the economic downturn is now perceived as potentially less severe than previously feared. The market reaction saw the euro rise above $1.07 for the first time since June, while the pound fell below €1.15. Markets now expect the ECB ro raise interest rates above 3% next year.
Hann-Ju Ho
Senior Economist
That may be the fundamental reason and may be I am a little early in my trade idea as today's candle hasn't closed.I am assuming that we don't make a new higher high before the end of the NYC session.
European Central Bank (Dec): We're not pivoting
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates today by 50bps, in line with expectations. It follows 75bp hikes in the last two meetings in September and October, and a 50bp rise in July. There was broad agreement (not unanimity) on the decision and it brings the deposit rate up to 2%. There were similar increases in the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate to 2.5% and 2.75%, respectively. Policy rates have been raised by a total of 250bp since July (Chart 1).
Although the hiking pace was reduced today, the ECB warned that interest rates will “still have to rise significantly” and that they will be kept at “restrictive levels” to dampen demand and guard against second-round effects on inflation. President Christine Lagarde indicated that more 50bp rises could occur early next year (the next update is on 2 February). She said, “we’re not pivoting” and that the ECB is “in for a long game” and there is more ground to cover.
Current inflation was described as “far too high” (Chart 4) and forecast to stay above target for what is seen as “too long”. The ECB’s new quarterly economic projections upgraded inflation for 2023 to 6.3% (from 5.5%) and for 2024 to 3.4% (from 2.3%). The first forecast for 2025 is 2.3%, still above the 2% target (Chart 2). The ECB envisages a “short and shallow” recession – while next year’s GDP growth was revised down to 0.5%, it remains above the consensus forecast (Chart 3).
Detail on the start of quantitative tightening (QT) – the reversal of QE – was also provided today. The ECB said that from March it will no longer reinvest fully the proceeds from maturing assets held in its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) portfolio. From March until the end of Q2 next year, the average decline will be €15bn a month, meaning that about half of estimated redemptions wil be reinvested (Chart 7). This degree of detail could also be interpreted as hawkish, because it reinforces the impetus to reduce the ECB’s balance sheet (Chart 6).
Overall, while today’s interest rate decision was expected, the messaging was nevertheless surprisingly hawkish. There seems to be increasing disquiet about persistent upside surprises to inflation and the extended period in which it is expected to remain above target, while the economic downturn is now perceived as potentially less severe than previously feared. The market reaction saw the euro rise above $1.07 for the first time since June, while the pound fell below €1.15. Markets now expect the ECB ro raise interest rates above 3% next year.
Hann-Ju Ho
Senior Economist
That may be the fundamental reason and may be I am a little early in my trade idea as today's candle hasn't closed.I am assuming that we don't make a new higher high before the end of the NYC session.
