Macrobriefing

Macrobriefing

I am a #BTC bull, so any contrarians should reverse everything I say from now on. #Bitcoin halving is days away. The trend following a halving is at least 6-months to the upside. We're already 2 months into a #BTCUSD bull-cycle. So I am bullish in this current trading range, meaning looking for "Buy-the-Dips". The trading range is from the ATH @ $75185 in the...

Macrobriefing

So the Ethereum Futures have finally filled the gap and IMHO we have now completed the bearish correction in the major crypto futures. I am now looking for both BTC and ETH to make higher highs and higher lows on the intraday charts. With the BTC chart, the volume and triangle/pennant pattern aligned with the correcting over time theory, and the ETH has done...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Lets assume that the strength in the US dollar wont last for too much longer, as Central Banks try and work out how many more trillions are needed in the system. The BTCUSD had been in a trading range for some time and this week we convincingly left it, with a big dose of Bullish price action. Will it last? IDK. I am long BTCUSD so I am fundamentally in the...

Macrobriefing Updated 

I am going to assume that the US dollar is increasing in value until we get to the debt ceiling decision. I am expecting a move up to and perhaps beyond the $103-$104 area. If this happens I have to assume that the BTCUSD will come tumbling down into my next buy zone. If we don't take out the next weekly level, this will be a great buying opportunity. But some...

Macrobriefing

Following on from the EURJPY short this morning I am now looking for a sustained move lower in the pound. The USDJPY is coiling around the weekly open, so we may have to wait for this to break out too.

Macrobriefing Updated 

All three yen pairs have set up for a short ahead of the ADP number due in 90 minutes. 
USDJPY GBPJPY The USDJPY should be the driver lower, especially on a bad number.

Macrobriefing Updated 

Going to start tracking some ideas that I trade on a live account with an EA I made. This is a trend-following strategy with a momentum break element

Macrobriefing Updated 

Going to start tracking some ideas that I trade on a live account with an EA I made. There is a fixed SL and TP

Macrobriefing Updated 

Going to start tracking some ideas that I trade on a live account with an EA I made. The first one is a long EJ

Macrobriefing

Looking for continued weakness in the USDJPY as the DXY comes off its highs. The GBPJPY reversed and then followed through to the downside and so we could get a continuation here too The EURJPY did the same but with no follow through so this was the only loser yesterday. The strategy doesn't do as well on a Wednesday as it usually does on Monday and Tuesday....

Macrobriefing

Now that we have had the data from the BoJ, I am focusing on the news that is coming out later today. At 1:30pm my time we receive the Canadian GDP m/m, which is expected to come in at 0.2% and down from the previous reading of 0.5%. So anything stringer and the CAD will strengthen. Then we also have the US Core PCE Price Index m/m which is expected to come in...

Macrobriefing Updated 

As we have UK CPI on Wednesday this long could be just an intra-day punt. Looking for a drop down into the imbalance and then a sweep of the recent swing high. There is a double bottom just below the entry hence why I am not really bullish. The news could be used to sweep those lows and maybe a pushed further down. Going to stay nimble. The USDJPY held up today,...

Macrobriefing Updated 

We've just had a decent pullback and now we could get the bounce. The US fiscal flows have gone into surplus. What does that mean? It means the US Treasury is taking more out of the system than they put in. This means they are taxing more than they are spending. When a government taxes they destroy the currency. This means there are fewer dollars in the system...

Macrobriefing Updated 

I know a lot of people want the stock market to crash and burn, and for the US economy to go into a recession. Well here is my idea of what to look for in a short trade on the US500, ES, SPX etc. But be warned, after this tax drain, if the US Congress lifts the debt ceiling, your shorts will be blown out of the water. There will be more and more positive fiscal...

Macrobriefing Updated 

The USDJPY has a potential two set ups to the long side, which isn't helpful, especially as it failed to break Friday's high or low during the overnight session. I am looking for longs as the EURJPY and GBJPY have taken out Friday's high, and there is a clear trade off level for each. GBPJPY EURJPY The RRR is also greater than 1:2 for all trades, so as long...

Macrobriefing Updated 

Still waiting for a long set up on USDJPY. The start is similar to that of yesterday as we have not seen a move above yesterday's high. So now we're just waiting to see if the bulls will buy at a discount. EURJPY and GBPJPY will be pushed around by the USDJPY so if all 3 line up on an area of demand, I'll pull the trigger.

Macrobriefing Updated 

Currently, the USDJPY is trapped between a previous day's high and a recent day's low. Until we break out of this range there is little to do. Yesterday's target was not the rebalancing of the previous 3 days' action but the high from the 13th. If we get a break below this level, I'll have to look for a short down to 132.50 The DXY higher time frame chart shows...

Macrobriefing

After examining the Weekly chart for the DXY, it appears to me that the dollar flow is likely to continue downward for some time. Today's Advance GDP q/q reading is expected to be 2.0%, following the disappointing last reading of 2.6%. Additionally, the US Unemployment Claims are anticipated to be higher, at around 247K. In my recent blog posts, I discuss the...