Recent analyses of FED fire power suggests they have only used only about 1% of their arsenal of 'tools'. This obviously means that there is a lot more room for the north due to FED interventions. But what is market sentiment saying? There is a big fight on.
Get your popcorn ready!
Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Up and down are simple binary concepts. I know this, from when my thinking was like that may years ago. I still wrestle with the urge to think in that way. Obviously if price isn't going up it has to go down. But over the years in stalking many charts, I've come to realise that time frame is really important.
I could easily answer the question "..is us30 going down.." with a simple 'yes' or 'no'. It would be meaningless and highly likely to be 'wrong' and 'right'. On a 1 min time frame I'd be right and at the same time on a 4H time frame I'd be wrong. So the question itself as stated - leads to an always dubious answer. I don't know what people 'mean' unless they are specific. Sorry - this business is about specificity.
When traders ask up or down, in essence they're looking for a prediction even if they don't know it 'consciously'. I have asserted for a long time that predictions models are wrong. I work on a probability model: where if I estimate price may rise in a trend envelope (going up for example) on a particular time frame, I know there is a residual probability that it may go the other way. The only way I know to limit how wrong I may be, is with a stop loss.
The other problem with 'yes' or 'no' answers, to 'up' or 'down' questions - is that nobody knows or can predict how far up or down. That is the key problem. So I'd be right if I said 'up' and price moved one pip up thereafter and wrong if the other way. I hope some get the point of how useless, 'up' and 'down' are, as ideas.
Hats off to all others and experts out there, who say my reasoning is wrong.
The job of any trader is to get in at an opportune moment on any time frame and exploit part of a trend probability in any direction. Trend becomes more important than price going up or down. Trend is not 'price' because it contains an envelope which will contain zillions of price movements. The idea becomes: 'getting in' at the best probabilistic time based on careful analysis, and then 'getting out' when the trend weakens sufficiently.
Trend following and trend-continuity methods exploit the same idea. I do not go into methodologies. Even simpler strategies of exploiting support and resistance areas are also exploiting particular areas of trend weakness.