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Cigna – Is There a Sign of Trend Reversal for a Deep Correction?

Short
NYSE:CI   The Cigna Group
Fundamental Indicators:
  • Sector – Healthcare
  • US Business Cycle Stage – late cycle, when this sector is one of the most favourable
  • Revenue - consistently growing since for the last 10 years
  • Profits – peaked in 2020 and considerably dropped since then
  • Net margin – quite low with just 3% and dropping since 2020
  • P/E – at a good level of 16 compared to S&P500 with 21 and Healthcare sector 22
  • Liabilities - debt ratio is at 0.7 which is within normal limits
  • Conclusion – still good financial performance comparted to the market as a whole but with signs of a slow down

Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
  • Main scenario of this idea suggests that we are still observing development of the global growth cycle which is currently at the stage of completing wave 3 (see higher timeframe graph)
  • Since the correction of March 2020, we can see choppy move to the upside updating historic highs which is a sign of an Ending Diagonal. And wave 5 of 5 is also very likely to be an Ending Diagonal which indicates that bulls are out of energy and a sharp reversal is about to play out
  • The long term target for the depth of global wave 4 is likely to be $110-$150 (0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels). However, given the previous correction took 8 years between 2000 and 2008, the upcoming one should be even longer in duration according the EW guidelines

This is a higher timeframe to reflect the full history of Cigna and to provide full wave count:

What do you think about Cigna and its short term prospects?
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