So for about 6 months now we have not seen exponential growth. Call it what you will. I think I will call it a "bitcoin recession." For two quarters we have not seen the kind of positive growth we have come to expect, however, compare what we have now to this time last year and you should still be a very happy camper. If you've been HODLing of course and even if you've been trading, as long as you have more coins you are in a very good position. This brings me to my first point. We tend to have a very short memory and those poor souls that bought into BTC with out doing research just didn't see that this is perfectly normal. We have already had a drawback of approximately 70% which is slightly better than the two or three worst ever.
The average cost of a bitcoin through mining, depending on country is somewhere between $531 and $26,170 so let's round and say the spread is $500 to $26000. Therefore we have a whopping grand total average of $13250. Now, if you don't think that is a baseline of where we should be I'm quite sorry. With weighted averages we might say that it's a bit lower, for instance if China is in the dominant position of mining, let's say 75%, then the average with these two numbers is quite a bit lower. If the cost in China was $500 and let's say the U.S. is $26000 then we are looking at a weighted average of $1025. Oh no, that's a dismal price for Bitcoin!
Luckily, those aren't the respective prices. It's interesting that bears have pegged a downside price at around $4,000. The cost of mining in the U.S. just happens to be about $4758. Hmmm!?!? Fascinating. The problem is that at this point we know that the average cost of mining a BTC is actually around $6500 so what will cause BTC to fall below this? For reference, this was established in the first two months of the year when the cost to profit was 1:1 ratio. I haven't seen any electric bills anywhere in the world go down. When an electric corporation finds a more efficient way of producing they hold the price stable longer, but they certainly don't drop it. Same for ASIC miners and graphics cards. Demand went up and so did the price. Even though production went up the demand was simply too high.
Here's what I'm trying to point out. The top chart shows the overall logarithmic growth of BTC and the bottom shows linear increasing bottoms since late 2017. Despite our current recession we are still growing positive. When I read other peoples views, I concentrate specifically on counter arguments because that's the only way to find something that I've missed. I have yet to read a reason for BTC to plummet.
Let's start with Fibonacci retracements. These are potential turning points or high likely-hood of reversal points both on the low and high side. They are not the reason that something rises or falls. If they were, then we would always and forever oscillate. Pennants, flags, cups, H &S, inverse H & S are indicators again, not reasons. That's why they are only correct part of the time. I want a reason on the macro or micro-level, or a well detailed mathematical explanation of why BTC is going lower.
Please keep it educational, but also please comment below.
The average cost of a bitcoin through mining, depending on country is somewhere between $531 and $26,170 so let's round and say the spread is $500 to $26000. Therefore we have a whopping grand total average of $13250. Now, if you don't think that is a baseline of where we should be I'm quite sorry. With weighted averages we might say that it's a bit lower, for instance if China is in the dominant position of mining, let's say 75%, then the average with these two numbers is quite a bit lower. If the cost in China was $500 and let's say the U.S. is $26000 then we are looking at a weighted average of $1025. Oh no, that's a dismal price for Bitcoin!
Luckily, those aren't the respective prices. It's interesting that bears have pegged a downside price at around $4,000. The cost of mining in the U.S. just happens to be about $4758. Hmmm!?!? Fascinating. The problem is that at this point we know that the average cost of mining a BTC is actually around $6500 so what will cause BTC to fall below this? For reference, this was established in the first two months of the year when the cost to profit was 1:1 ratio. I haven't seen any electric bills anywhere in the world go down. When an electric corporation finds a more efficient way of producing they hold the price stable longer, but they certainly don't drop it. Same for ASIC miners and graphics cards. Demand went up and so did the price. Even though production went up the demand was simply too high.
Here's what I'm trying to point out. The top chart shows the overall logarithmic growth of BTC and the bottom shows linear increasing bottoms since late 2017. Despite our current recession we are still growing positive. When I read other peoples views, I concentrate specifically on counter arguments because that's the only way to find something that I've missed. I have yet to read a reason for BTC to plummet.
Let's start with Fibonacci retracements. These are potential turning points or high likely-hood of reversal points both on the low and high side. They are not the reason that something rises or falls. If they were, then we would always and forever oscillate. Pennants, flags, cups, H &S, inverse H & S are indicators again, not reasons. That's why they are only correct part of the time. I want a reason on the macro or micro-level, or a well detailed mathematical explanation of why BTC is going lower.
Please keep it educational, but also please comment below.