On the weekly timeframe these are my potential price paths leading up to and beyond the all important halving.
Using the volume profile indicator, it's possible to see where the highest volume areas are during the way down from the 69k all time high. These areas are where price will usually reach congestion where large orders are being defend and or added to in order to try and push price back in the original direction.
As shown BTC is currently inside a Bearish Orderblock and waiting for price to react off of it, and how Bitcoin reacts leads me to the 3 paths I have predicted:
Bullish Path - If btc flips this bearish OB and retests it with a confirmation as new support, next stop is 38k where the volume profile shows an area of high volume, and therefor resistance as the last time we were at this level the imbalance on the orderbook sent price lower. As price continues to retake previous bearish OB's and turning them into bullish ones by the time the next halving comes around we should be poised to look forward to retaking the ATH.
Neutral Path - I think the middle and most balanced of the 3 outcomes would make the most sense to me given the economic macro environment with the threat of recession looming over the crypto industry, but also the majority of the downtrend is over from the bear market, Btc dropped 77% from its high and although its possible to drop further it's inline with bear markets in the past.
Bearish Path - The bearish outcome leading up to and beyond is the current OB rejects price and sends it back to the POC (point of control) which would really hurt the market but isn't out of the question given the lack of available disposable income and free credit to invest going into the later months of 2023. Unfortunately this is quite likely in my opinion. However, the halving event that takes place this time next year has always started rally's in price, and last Bullrun began just before a halving event. So in conclusion HTF chop and then rally into the halving and beyond.
Using the volume profile indicator, it's possible to see where the highest volume areas are during the way down from the 69k all time high. These areas are where price will usually reach congestion where large orders are being defend and or added to in order to try and push price back in the original direction.
As shown BTC is currently inside a Bearish Orderblock and waiting for price to react off of it, and how Bitcoin reacts leads me to the 3 paths I have predicted:
Bullish Path - If btc flips this bearish OB and retests it with a confirmation as new support, next stop is 38k where the volume profile shows an area of high volume, and therefor resistance as the last time we were at this level the imbalance on the orderbook sent price lower. As price continues to retake previous bearish OB's and turning them into bullish ones by the time the next halving comes around we should be poised to look forward to retaking the ATH.
Neutral Path - I think the middle and most balanced of the 3 outcomes would make the most sense to me given the economic macro environment with the threat of recession looming over the crypto industry, but also the majority of the downtrend is over from the bear market, Btc dropped 77% from its high and although its possible to drop further it's inline with bear markets in the past.
Bearish Path - The bearish outcome leading up to and beyond is the current OB rejects price and sends it back to the POC (point of control) which would really hurt the market but isn't out of the question given the lack of available disposable income and free credit to invest going into the later months of 2023. Unfortunately this is quite likely in my opinion. However, the halving event that takes place this time next year has always started rally's in price, and last Bullrun began just before a halving event. So in conclusion HTF chop and then rally into the halving and beyond.
Comment:
So far BTC is on track for either the orange neutral path or the bearish red. Time will tell but so far the bearish OB got a bearish reaction and so we flip bearish for now until 32.5k is flipped.
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So far the bearish path is being followed perfectly, I think with all the upcoming big news events could send price down towards that 24K mark due to increased volatility. A big three days coming up in the crypto markets!!
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Update after the recent selloff;
We continue to follow the bearish path as laid out originally in April. Another rejection off the bearish OB and failure to break 32.5K has meant prices have fallen lower to 24k briefly.
At time of writing price is at 26.5K filling the entire FVG, the real question is now that the FVG is filled the target for the bulls should be the 32.5K zone. However, the bearish path would mean we continue lower towards yearly open of around 19K.
With macro economic struggles causing a lack of new money inflows, in conjunction with SEC cases and the threat of rescission across the globe my gut tells me things get worse before they get better.
Having said that, planning for each eventuality is important. So far this year has been a bear market rally until proven otherwise, and as such returning to yearly open is on the cards. Would be a great place for Blackrock and the other ETF's to buy in wouldn't it...
We continue to follow the bearish path as laid out originally in April. Another rejection off the bearish OB and failure to break 32.5K has meant prices have fallen lower to 24k briefly.
At time of writing price is at 26.5K filling the entire FVG, the real question is now that the FVG is filled the target for the bulls should be the 32.5K zone. However, the bearish path would mean we continue lower towards yearly open of around 19K.
With macro economic struggles causing a lack of new money inflows, in conjunction with SEC cases and the threat of rescission across the globe my gut tells me things get worse before they get better.
Having said that, planning for each eventuality is important. So far this year has been a bear market rally until proven otherwise, and as such returning to yearly open is on the cards. Would be a great place for Blackrock and the other ETF's to buy in wouldn't it...
Comment:
Coming up on September monthly close, price is still hovering around that mid 20k's, but I still think the red path makes great sense on the run up to the halving.
We now have confirmation of a FED pause in interest rate hikes at 5.5%, with the FED's target at 2% we should expect rate cuts to be made once there is a dent in core inflation around 6 months from now. This would mean a pivot to a more dovish policy almost exactly at the BITCOIN halving.
There is of course the topic of the ETF's and their approval. The SEC has postponed their decision a number of times and will no doubt continue to draw this out. The consensus is positive, I think it's a matter of when not if and so once approval is confirmed it will bring something crypto as a whole hasn't had in the last 2 years, new institutional buyers. I believe once these players get involved a bit lower down than we are now it will be slow and steady and then all at once in terms of price movement.
We now have confirmation of a FED pause in interest rate hikes at 5.5%, with the FED's target at 2% we should expect rate cuts to be made once there is a dent in core inflation around 6 months from now. This would mean a pivot to a more dovish policy almost exactly at the BITCOIN halving.
There is of course the topic of the ETF's and their approval. The SEC has postponed their decision a number of times and will no doubt continue to draw this out. The consensus is positive, I think it's a matter of when not if and so once approval is confirmed it will bring something crypto as a whole hasn't had in the last 2 years, new institutional buyers. I believe once these players get involved a bit lower down than we are now it will be slow and steady and then all at once in terms of price movement.
Comment:
Quick update...
We are yet to get the ETF decision although it is rumoured to be imminent. BTC structure is currently between the green bullish path and the neutral yellow path despite yesterdays flash crash. (Thanks to a rumour of ETF rejection & Jim Cramer)
Sentiment is generally that we'll get a big bullish candle if the ETF is approved followed by a sell off back into the 30k's. 32K being the major support. Then starting the journey towards the halving.
We are yet to get the ETF decision although it is rumoured to be imminent. BTC structure is currently between the green bullish path and the neutral yellow path despite yesterdays flash crash. (Thanks to a rumour of ETF rejection & Jim Cramer)
Sentiment is generally that we'll get a big bullish candle if the ETF is approved followed by a sell off back into the 30k's. 32K being the major support. Then starting the journey towards the halving.
Comment:
Well who saw this coming! Ahead of schedule mostly thanks to the BTC ETF narrative and the explosion of institutional investment. With The Halving event 49 days away it looks like BTC could break its ATH before mining rewards half for the first time ever!
When looking at the chart February has left a giant FVG with the Bullish Order Block at the 52K mark. If there were to be any pullback at all I would say a good place to add would be there, perhaps after a SFP of the ATH? I would say in these market conditions SHORTS are completely off the table, way too much buying pressure even at these prices.
If BTC just continues to move like this without a correction I would be scared for what will eventually happen. However, these are exciting times in the crypto space!
When looking at the chart February has left a giant FVG with the Bullish Order Block at the 52K mark. If there were to be any pullback at all I would say a good place to add would be there, perhaps after a SFP of the ATH? I would say in these market conditions SHORTS are completely off the table, way too much buying pressure even at these prices.
If BTC just continues to move like this without a correction I would be scared for what will eventually happen. However, these are exciting times in the crypto space!
Comment:
BTC retested its previous ATH of
69K
and made it new support! as long as BTC stays above this level the whole market has a green light to continue its rally!
Comment:
Possible swing fail pattern in play. A rejection off the
69K
level (previous Bullrun ATH) makes BTC look weak/bearish on the HTF.
Bulls need a reclaim in the short term or I sense we see more bleed and/or chop before the halving.
Bulls need a reclaim in the short term or I sense we see more bleed and/or chop before the halving.
