I thought it was time to make a long-term chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a long-term bitcoin bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles is the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally—every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The long-term goal of BTC, in 2025+, is at around 150K USD imo. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
CURRENT SITUATION
$BTC broke out of the downtrend on the monthly chart.
The bull and bear market after the halving lasted approx 1000 days. If we take the historical data we can see that $BTC entered the next halving with ≈ 50% down from the top. Considering this, the price of Bitcoin could be around $35k going into the next halving.
I hope this chart helps people understand the long-term growth dynamics of BTC :)
This idea only in the probabilistic way
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a long-term bitcoin bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles is the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally—every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The long-term goal of BTC, in 2025+, is at around 150K USD imo. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
CURRENT SITUATION
$BTC broke out of the downtrend on the monthly chart.
The bull and bear market after the halving lasted approx 1000 days. If we take the historical data we can see that $BTC entered the next halving with ≈ 50% down from the top. Considering this, the price of Bitcoin could be around $35k going into the next halving.
I hope this chart helps people understand the long-term growth dynamics of BTC :)
This idea only in the probabilistic way
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Analyzing Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio: A Guide to Market Trends and Predictions
The Bitcoin MVRV ratio is a metric that divides the current Bitcoin market capitalization by the realized capitalization, which provides two distinct measures of the cryptocurrency's value.
Over the course of three halvings, the MVRV has proven to be an exceptional indicator of market trends.
The MVRV ratio is also helpful in detecting market trends. If the market capitalization grows faster than the realized capitalization, the MVRV ratio increases, indicating a possible motive for selling. On the other hand, if the realized capitalization outpaces the market capitalization, the MVRV ratio decreases, indicating a potential decline in selling pressure.
In April 2020, after Bitcoin rebounded from the COVID crisis, the MVRV turned green, indicating values above 1. The MVRV continued to rise, reaching values above 3.75, marking Bitcoin's all-time high.
During the China ban, the MVRV dropped from this high to 1.5 before recovering and hitting a lower high of 3. The MVRV then began a descending pattern, returning to the 1.5 level and eventually breaking it due to negative narratives surrounding major crypto firms such as Terra Luna, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network, and FTX. The MVRV broke the 1 level downward, reaching lows of 0.75 in November 2022.
The MVRV ratio broke the 1 level in an upward direction as a result of a significant increase in Bitcoin prices in January 2023, which was driven by a considerable accumulation in both the spot and derivatives markets. This surge was further supported by the record-breaking number of open interest in Bitcoin options, suggesting a continued growth trend.
By examining the MVRV ratio, it becomes clear that the 1.5 level holds significant importance. The question arises whether the ratio will breach this level to sustain the upward trend. In my opinion, it is highly likely that this will happen since Bitcoin is rapidly being withdrawn from exchanges, resulting in a scarce supply.
Analyzing Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio: A Guide to Market Trends and Predictions
The Bitcoin MVRV ratio is a metric that divides the current Bitcoin market capitalization by the realized capitalization, which provides two distinct measures of the cryptocurrency's value.
Over the course of three halvings, the MVRV has proven to be an exceptional indicator of market trends.
The MVRV ratio is also helpful in detecting market trends. If the market capitalization grows faster than the realized capitalization, the MVRV ratio increases, indicating a possible motive for selling. On the other hand, if the realized capitalization outpaces the market capitalization, the MVRV ratio decreases, indicating a potential decline in selling pressure.
In April 2020, after Bitcoin rebounded from the COVID crisis, the MVRV turned green, indicating values above 1. The MVRV continued to rise, reaching values above 3.75, marking Bitcoin's all-time high.
During the China ban, the MVRV dropped from this high to 1.5 before recovering and hitting a lower high of 3. The MVRV then began a descending pattern, returning to the 1.5 level and eventually breaking it due to negative narratives surrounding major crypto firms such as Terra Luna, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network, and FTX. The MVRV broke the 1 level downward, reaching lows of 0.75 in November 2022.
The MVRV ratio broke the 1 level in an upward direction as a result of a significant increase in Bitcoin prices in January 2023, which was driven by a considerable accumulation in both the spot and derivatives markets. This surge was further supported by the record-breaking number of open interest in Bitcoin options, suggesting a continued growth trend.
By examining the MVRV ratio, it becomes clear that the 1.5 level holds significant importance. The question arises whether the ratio will breach this level to sustain the upward trend. In my opinion, it is highly likely that this will happen since Bitcoin is rapidly being withdrawn from exchanges, resulting in a scarce supply.
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BTC continued its bullish move after the golden crossover and the breakout of the inverse head and shoulder pattern.
Currently, BTC has breakout the bullish pennant and trying to reclaim the previous resistance level of $28600. Reclamation of this level with a candle close above it would be a strong bullish sign for the market.
Currently, BTC has breakout the bullish pennant and trying to reclaim the previous resistance level of $28600. Reclamation of this level with a candle close above it would be a strong bullish sign for the market.
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#BTC showing a bearish divergence move in the daily time frame and at resistance.
#BTC showing a bearish divergence move in the daily time frame and at resistance.
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Short-Term Holder SOPR indicates that the coins are once again realizing a profit
Due to what is currently happening in the banking sector, we see that market participants are reevaluating their attitudes toward the Bitcoin market. Since March 12, 2023, coins moved inside the network by short-term holders are again profitable.
Of course, this is a positive factor for Bitcoin, but still, one thing confuses me here. It is absolutely clear that the rate at which the profitability of short-term coins (< 155d) is growing is far behind the growth of the Bitcoin price. If this contradiction persists shortly, it may create conditions for another rollback to $19,000-$21,000.
Short-Term Holder SOPR indicates that the coins are once again realizing a profit
Due to what is currently happening in the banking sector, we see that market participants are reevaluating their attitudes toward the Bitcoin market. Since March 12, 2023, coins moved inside the network by short-term holders are again profitable.
Of course, this is a positive factor for Bitcoin, but still, one thing confuses me here. It is absolutely clear that the rate at which the profitability of short-term coins (< 155d) is growing is far behind the growth of the Bitcoin price. If this contradiction persists shortly, it may create conditions for another rollback to $19,000-$21,000.
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#BTC is at strong resistance but if it breaks this level then it will become extremely bullish!
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Coins Held by Digital Asset Holdings
Fund Holdings refer to the total amount of coins held by digital asset holdings such as trusts, ETFs, and funds.
During the recent bear cycle, which persisted until the end of 2022, this metric saw a downward trend.
Indirect investments through these holdings saw increased demand during the bullish rally of 2023. However, the banking crisis and widespread worry disrupted the index's upward trajectory, reducing it to 688K coins (indicated in yellow). Recent reports suggest that trust has returned to holdings, as they have added around 2000 bitcoins to their reserves in the last two weeks.
Fund Holdings refer to the total amount of coins held by digital asset holdings such as trusts, ETFs, and funds.
During the recent bear cycle, which persisted until the end of 2022, this metric saw a downward trend.
Indirect investments through these holdings saw increased demand during the bullish rally of 2023. However, the banking crisis and widespread worry disrupted the index's upward trajectory, reducing it to 688K coins (indicated in yellow). Recent reports suggest that trust has returned to holdings, as they have added around 2000 bitcoins to their reserves in the last two weeks.
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Bitcoin Market Heats Up: Transfer Volume Up 153% in Last 24 Hours
Over the past 24 hours, there have been some significant changes in the Bitcoin market that investors should be aware of. First, the taker buy-sell ratio, which measures buying to selling in the Bitcoin derivatives market, has shifted significantly in favor of buying. This indicates increased demand for Bitcoin derivatives and could signify bullish sentiment in the market.
Another metric that has significantly changed is the total number of coins transferred, which has increased by 153.06% compared to yesterday. This indicates a high activity level in the Bitcoin network and could signify renewed interest in Bitcoin. Similarly, the total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins increased by 63.62% compared to yesterday.
This is another sign of increased interest in Bitcoin and could indicate a growing bullish sentiment in the market.
Over the past 24 hours, there have been some significant changes in the Bitcoin market that investors should be aware of. First, the taker buy-sell ratio, which measures buying to selling in the Bitcoin derivatives market, has shifted significantly in favor of buying. This indicates increased demand for Bitcoin derivatives and could signify bullish sentiment in the market.
Another metric that has significantly changed is the total number of coins transferred, which has increased by 153.06% compared to yesterday. This indicates a high activity level in the Bitcoin network and could signify renewed interest in Bitcoin. Similarly, the total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins increased by 63.62% compared to yesterday.
This is another sign of increased interest in Bitcoin and could indicate a growing bullish sentiment in the market.
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The Accumulation Cycle Still Intact, Despite the Recent Correction
Bitcoin has moved into a -10 percent correction after ascending almost 100 percent during early 2023. While the price action looks bad, traders should still remember to stay calm.
From a purely technical point of view, bitcoin passed its critical inflection point at the turn of the year, where the descending and ascending trend lines met (black). The point acts as a technical watershed and defines the market from 2021 until the halving year of 2024.
In the early 2023, bitcoin has been able to rise above the realized price (grey) indicator. The realized price is important because it represents the average price of all bitcoin purchases. At the same time, the realized price illustrates that average bitcoin buyers are making a profit on their investments.
In the broader picture, bitcoin’s market behavior can be segmented into accumulation (turquoise) and distribution (purple) phases, which together form a multi-year series of cycles. Institutional money has traditionally favored accumulation cycles, while retail investors have been active in distribution cycles. Bitcoin’s history is also defined by halving events, which are always preceded by a pre-halving accumulation cycle (turquoise).
Despite the falling spot price, bitcoin's exchange stablecoin ratio (yellow, ESR) is currently acting as a leading indicator to bitcoin, and other digital assets in correlation. The ESR and bitcoin's spot price converged from 2021 to 2022, however the last year's selling pressure broke their correlation.
Pivoting its path back in late 2022, the exchange stablecoin ratio is again reaching towards new highs. In the current market structure, ESR acts as a magnet to bitcoin's spot price.
As an epilogus, bitcoin's market structure is still supported by multiple technical and on-chain factors. The multi-year inflection point backs bitcoin technically. Additionally, the leading cryptocurrency is supported by realized price, growing ESR divergence, and pre-halving accumulation cycle.
Bitcoin has moved into a -10 percent correction after ascending almost 100 percent during early 2023. While the price action looks bad, traders should still remember to stay calm.
From a purely technical point of view, bitcoin passed its critical inflection point at the turn of the year, where the descending and ascending trend lines met (black). The point acts as a technical watershed and defines the market from 2021 until the halving year of 2024.
In the early 2023, bitcoin has been able to rise above the realized price (grey) indicator. The realized price is important because it represents the average price of all bitcoin purchases. At the same time, the realized price illustrates that average bitcoin buyers are making a profit on their investments.
In the broader picture, bitcoin’s market behavior can be segmented into accumulation (turquoise) and distribution (purple) phases, which together form a multi-year series of cycles. Institutional money has traditionally favored accumulation cycles, while retail investors have been active in distribution cycles. Bitcoin’s history is also defined by halving events, which are always preceded by a pre-halving accumulation cycle (turquoise).
Despite the falling spot price, bitcoin's exchange stablecoin ratio (yellow, ESR) is currently acting as a leading indicator to bitcoin, and other digital assets in correlation. The ESR and bitcoin's spot price converged from 2021 to 2022, however the last year's selling pressure broke their correlation.
Pivoting its path back in late 2022, the exchange stablecoin ratio is again reaching towards new highs. In the current market structure, ESR acts as a magnet to bitcoin's spot price.
As an epilogus, bitcoin's market structure is still supported by multiple technical and on-chain factors. The multi-year inflection point backs bitcoin technically. Additionally, the leading cryptocurrency is supported by realized price, growing ESR divergence, and pre-halving accumulation cycle.
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![TOP 20 Key Patterns [cheat sheet]](https://s3.tradingview.com/6/6puZ59qW_big.png)
