Hi folks!
First - as I like to update on my positions (because you should never trust anyone who do not put their money where their mouth is - and Tradingview should definitely have a "Proof of Position"-feature:
I got liquidated on one of my shorts (46.3k, SL 52k, TP 30k) - equivalent to a 0.9% loss of my total free equity portfolio. I still hold the (49.5k, SL 56k, TP 30k) short and added an even larger (52.5k, SL 56k, TP 30k)
short. I am currently short BTCUSD for about 2.5% of my free equity portfolio.
In my opinion, we are in a massive financial bubble that will eventually burst - even from a Black Swan or (most likely) due to (possibly some combination of) very highly probable factors such as liquidity decrease and less complacency. This has - as you mave have seen from my ideas for the past couple of months - convinced me that the best thing you can to is to sit it out, bet on volatility and possibly enter some short positions
is a possibility arises, although with a proper risk management strategy (see the Kelly Criterion).
Now, as I have stated multiple times, I am mostly trading VIX futures these days in the since that I buy big amounts of short term future contracts (you can do this through ETFs such as VIXY/VXX etc for simplicity, but you should definitely understand the math before you jump into this - which holds for all investments). However, the grim technicals in BTCUSD - especially the volume divergence - has made me enter short positions for the last month. After the fact, you may say I was too early or placed a too tight SL on my first short, but this is a probabilistic game and you lose sometimes - also, the tight SL is often a bad idea in crypto markets unless you are a scalp trader. Also, if you have the opportunity to enter volatility contracts for a good price (not binance vol options!), that might be better than shorting.
Now, I have marked concurrent divergences in RSI and MACD on the daily as buy (long)/sell (short) signals with a price range until the next opposite indicator. As you can see, this simple indicator has yielded massive gains at all signals this year (given that you held the entire position until an opposite signal appeared, which is not recommended due to the change in expected value, and also required you to hold a loose SL at some occasions). This indicator - especially coupled with a volume divergence (which is arguably the most important) - hold up very good historically in both directions. Just check for yourself if you do not believe me.
We also saw a first rejection off the what was the support line of the broken ascending wedge today, and the singal is confirmed on up until 4h - if this continues to hold throuhgout the dayly candle, it is another important indicator that supports the sell signal based on the stated triple DIV.
For the record, I am a huge believer in blockchain technology, and I also own some staked DOT and ETH. I also plan to place the potential profit of my shorts and/or volatility bets in crypto (in addition to real assets)
if I am right - I just think this is a terrible risk/reward environment where the expected value is higher on the short side than the long side in both the U.S. stock market, bond markets and crypto.
DYOR.
NFA.
Never take the words of others as a given, and never take advise from one some without skin in the game.
I wish you all well :)
First - as I like to update on my positions (because you should never trust anyone who do not put their money where their mouth is - and Tradingview should definitely have a "Proof of Position"-feature:
I got liquidated on one of my shorts (46.3k, SL 52k, TP 30k) - equivalent to a 0.9% loss of my total free equity portfolio. I still hold the (49.5k, SL 56k, TP 30k) short and added an even larger (52.5k, SL 56k, TP 30k)
short. I am currently short BTCUSD for about 2.5% of my free equity portfolio.
In my opinion, we are in a massive financial bubble that will eventually burst - even from a Black Swan or (most likely) due to (possibly some combination of) very highly probable factors such as liquidity decrease and less complacency. This has - as you mave have seen from my ideas for the past couple of months - convinced me that the best thing you can to is to sit it out, bet on volatility and possibly enter some short positions
is a possibility arises, although with a proper risk management strategy (see the Kelly Criterion).
Now, as I have stated multiple times, I am mostly trading VIX futures these days in the since that I buy big amounts of short term future contracts (you can do this through ETFs such as VIXY/VXX etc for simplicity, but you should definitely understand the math before you jump into this - which holds for all investments). However, the grim technicals in BTCUSD - especially the volume divergence - has made me enter short positions for the last month. After the fact, you may say I was too early or placed a too tight SL on my first short, but this is a probabilistic game and you lose sometimes - also, the tight SL is often a bad idea in crypto markets unless you are a scalp trader. Also, if you have the opportunity to enter volatility contracts for a good price (not binance vol options!), that might be better than shorting.
Now, I have marked concurrent divergences in RSI and MACD on the daily as buy (long)/sell (short) signals with a price range until the next opposite indicator. As you can see, this simple indicator has yielded massive gains at all signals this year (given that you held the entire position until an opposite signal appeared, which is not recommended due to the change in expected value, and also required you to hold a loose SL at some occasions). This indicator - especially coupled with a volume divergence (which is arguably the most important) - hold up very good historically in both directions. Just check for yourself if you do not believe me.
We also saw a first rejection off the what was the support line of the broken ascending wedge today, and the singal is confirmed on up until 4h - if this continues to hold throuhgout the dayly candle, it is another important indicator that supports the sell signal based on the stated triple DIV.
For the record, I am a huge believer in blockchain technology, and I also own some staked DOT and ETH. I also plan to place the potential profit of my shorts and/or volatility bets in crypto (in addition to real assets)
if I am right - I just think this is a terrible risk/reward environment where the expected value is higher on the short side than the long side in both the U.S. stock market, bond markets and crypto.
DYOR.
NFA.
Never take the words of others as a given, and never take advise from one some without skin in the game.
I wish you all well :)
Comment:
Note: The two grey price range indicators to the right in the chart are predictions - i.e. what one stands to make from a hypothetical entry at the sell signal until my TP at 30k*
Comment:
...The rightmost grey arrow is also wrong - the potential profit should be higher, as the arrow should start at apx. 52.5k*
