TheDots

TheDots

See chart - I placed short @ 30.5k with SL 31.5 and TP 26. In addition, we see massive call skew on the S&P, Fear&Greed index @ Extremely bullish etc - I have bought VIX futures as well btw* DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of others as a given, And never listen to a word of anyone without skin in the Game. I wish you all well.

TheDots

Hi, folks! It´s been a very long time since my last post, as there have been very little few concrete signs of any direction. Now, however, my hypothesis is that we´ll see large bouts of volatility in the time to come - where my bias leans towards a long position: - Bollinger bands are the tightest we have seen since the beginning of the covid rally in 2020 -...

TheDots

Hi folks! Long time no see! In a long-term perspective, I still believe you will get to buy BTC at a lower USD price later this year. However, after we saw a triple buy signal in buy/sell vol and confluence with bullish div in MACD on 1D, we have seen a bounce up untill now. We are now at a critical level technically - with confluence in upper BB on 1D and...

TheDots

Hi folks! Long time no see, as the market has been largely untradeable in my view! Now, I still think the market is in a chop, but it might be tempting to bet some small funds on a bounce these days due to the really fearful sentiment and the very low liquidity in the markets. In that sense, I have researched some potential candidates for long-shot bets, and I...

TheDots

I am posting a short term trade idea that I am willing gamble on myself - although I am bearish for risk-on assets in the short-to-intermediate term. DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of others for granted - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game! I wish you all well :)

TheDots

Hi folks! The market seems untradeable right now imo - we are in no mans land in terms of technicals (trends, horisontal support/resistance, MACD/RSI etc.) I still believe we will go way further down in the long term, and we have a lot of both immediate and longer term risks in the market. However, a crash/big correction almost always happen over a very long...

TheDots

Hi folks! A fourth real test of the long-term trend line from 2020 right now - in what seems to yet another red day for all financial markets around the globe. Technically, BTC actually looks very tempting in isolation, but almost every stock index looks terrible. I will be shorting for 37k at least if the trend line breaks, and fill up my longs on a New bounce...

TheDots

Hi folks! Just a short take on the VIX: During the last weeks, we have seen some volatility, but the VIX has barely moved (in VIX-scale, that is). This is not a good sign for the market - as the market usually do the unexpected thing. The Fear and Gread index is also neutral, so the market is not afraid at all of a further dump. Every single period of...

TheDots

Hi folks! Not much to say - extremely critical support at apx. 41.3k - along the long term trend line since 2020. The S&P500 and Nasdaq are not yet on their daily supports, so this CAN be ugly, but we might also have a crazy bounce - just watch the market closely today (and potentially during the week if we end up in a narrow consolidation pattern in a couple...

TheDots

Hi folks! The market just feels untradeable at the moment - there has been significant correlation between BTCUSDT and the stock market in the last couple of months, and that generally holds in periods of fear. Now, the stock market itself seems untradeable ATM (although the overall picture seems bearish): - Intraday Bounce in american stocks during friday. -...

TheDots

Hi folks! As you all know the fundamentals behind the stock market rally is not great - and it is driven by one thing and one thing only: All time low real interest rates (U.S. CPI - US10y is almost 5.5 percentage points - that is insane!). Since the market has kept on going far longer than I expected, I have turned much more into T.A. in the last couple of...

TheDots

Hi folks! As I stated in my last two posts about BTCUSDT (see linked), I bought at the long-term trend line (purple), as we saw buy signals in the MACD, RSI (not shown), Bollinger and the Money Flow Index. However, the volume was still very low on the bounce and the pullback larger than expected - in addition to the apparent bull trap in the stock indexes...

TheDots

Hi folks! I just tried to take a broader perspective on things again, and wanted to take a look at the pricing of the S&P500 relative to the M2 Money Supply, as well as the effect of real interest rates on markets. Note that the orange line here is the negative of the real interest rates - that is, . My takes are these: (1) The S&P500 relative to the M2 (broad...

TheDots

Hi folks! Enough said already - just stay out: - S&P500 has just once been more expensive in terms of most metrics (Schiller PE, P/S, Relative to Money supply etc.) - Real interests (inflation - treasury yields) have NEVER been as negative as they are now - contributing to huge inequality in society => Fed will have to act, and most likely a lot faster than the...

TheDots

Hi folks! I really think that the bullish trend is broken and that the market will soon realize that the pricing is built on easy money and Bigger Fool bets very soon - tight movie theatre door etc etc. The end of a market cycle is always a fool's game - the smart money is gone and only those in denial are left trading for the great honor of holding the bags. I...

TheDots

Hi folks! So, I was right about my last post (see linked), so let us see if the buy signal is real! Just posting what I see as a very clear technical buy signal if you consider BTCUSD in isolation of the general market: - Testing massive trendline since last year. - Retesting broken bearish trendline. - Massive bullish div on the 1D - Money Flow index will post...

TheDots

Hi folks! There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500. However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with...

TheDots

Hi folks! For the record, I still believe that we will have a crash in most financial markets in not-so-long time. However, the timing is extremely unpredictable (at least for me), so I trust more on the technicals than i normally do these days (that is, because the markets are crazy these days, so I do not trust fundamentals to matter until the crash): Everyone...