GBP Volatility is dropping off back down to the floor that is firmly set at 6.00
This has been a strong support for pound volatility for years now so buying GBP Vix at this level should provide relatively good gains from a bounce up to 16.00. It could go higher if there is new trade tensions with Europe and the Brexit saga continues
We expect an additional boost in the exchange rate. We are likely to build a double wave structure. The target price can be 42.6%. The panic atmosphere can last for a few days. But for the longer term we are more optimistic.
The CBOE’ VOLATILITY INDEX’ (VIX’) has been doing good numbers increasing over 150% in the past two weeks.
The index is now retracing but additional bullish action is expected according to what I am seeing coming from the charts.
CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX’ (VIX’) Analysis by Alan Masters
Before increasing by 150%+, the VIX’ touched a low point, which is the...
The VIX is called the 'Fear Index'. That's for a good reason. In times of high volatility what do you do? People in general stay out i.e. they sell off and keep their powder dry, or look for safe havens. They fear for their money, even if they don't admit it.
As a trader you're told 'volatility is good for traders'. But really - is it? It depends on how extreme...
I like to look at potential patterns in market cycles.
The VIX has touched 9.40 three times since 1990.
December of 1993
December of 2006
June 2017 to present
What is interesting about these dates? They all precede the build up of a financial crisis of some kind.
Take December 1993, the VIX briefly touched a low of 9.31,
3 years and 7 months later the East...
A more cautious tone is appearing across global equity markets.
Further gains to prove increasingly difficult to maintain.
China poised to break higher?
Global equity markets remain in their dominant bull trends.
Investor portfolios are overweight and investor sentiment is positive.
However, warning signals are now appearing, suggesting further gains are likely...
There are further signs of bullish trend development in the VIX.
Prices are now trading above congestion around 15.00 as momentum studies post positive divergence and continue to strengthen. The proprietary Tension Indicator (not shown) is also improving.
In the coming months, expectations are for higher levels to attract, with focus turning to congestion around...
This is not a cry to long VIX by any means, but it seems we are off the lows having had the lowest implied volatility in the first quarter of 2017 EVER recorded. Realized volatility was the lowest in 40 years.
What is does tell us though is that the rally is fading, uncertainty growing, and the key level to watch is the fresh low set by the S&P500 week before last.
The VIX is showing signs of stabilisation within the November 2016 bear trend as bearish stochastics and momentum studies continue to unwind.
Strengthening in the Tension Indicator (not shown) also suggests improvement, with further downside risks expected to remain limited. A break below psychological support at 10.00 cannot be ruled out, but further supports...
The VIX remains within the November 2016 bear trend, highlighting potential downside risks in the coming weeks.
However, signs of stabilisation are appearing as bearish stochastics and momentum studies continue to unwind. Strengthening in the Tension Indicator (not shown) also suggests improvement, with further downside risks expected to remain limited.
The VIX remains under pressure, within the November bear trend, with the close below the July 2014 trendline putting pressure on the 10.28 year low of July 2014.
Falling studies anticipate extension to psychological support at 10.00, with potential for further losses to the 9.70 year low of February 2007. Still lower is the 9.39 year low of December 2006, but...
The VIX is coming under fresh downside pressure, with the November bear trend extending further, with prices now approaching trendline support from 2014 and the 11.02 low of August.
A tick lower in the Tension Indicator anticipates risk of a deeper reaction towards critical support at the 10.28-10.88 year lows of 2014-2015, but any immediate tests are expected to...
Preparing for a Trump win
Following Friday and the FBIs decision to re-open the case on Hilary I have decided I am going to assume A Trump win, this is for several reasons:
1) After reading into it, the reopening of the FBI case implies one of three things imo - 1. They have found new significant...