Traders, As stated in my video on Sunday, all charts/indexes that we have been tracking and utilizing as leads for our crypto price predictions are still right on track. A quick review (left to right) shows: - The dollar has found support and, if my overall thesis is correct, could bounce here and travel up to that 107 target before dropping from our bearish...
The overnight range was the name of the game today. As mentioned earlier, we were looking for a potential break in either direction. After establishing the initial balance, we saw a test of the overnight session low (5019), which was successfully defended. Subsequently, buyers entered the market, leading to a push higher in $ES. This move broke the high of the...
Traders, It looks as if the dollar, vix, and precious metals/commodities will continue to trend up, stocks will continue to pull back. Bitcoin is tenuous. But it is possible that altcoins have reached their low, though that low may be retested soon. We'll discuss these subjects in this weekly update. Stew
The Markets are moving money into buying Puts and this signals Fear. This is what war does I suppose and is the logical scenario that we would anticipate. Put Options are being bought as market participants anticpate lower prices on the Indices overall in the Short term at least here. We gapped up to a Daily level on the Vix where we consequently observed a...
Stocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility. Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market. It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon'...
VIX is holding its resistance; expect a dive down to the 15.50-16.50 level Maj resistance box is holding well and the price is in topping formation
As we look at the VIX we note the historical impact the level 20 has had in the past. The last two times the VIX peaked above 20 were October 3rd 2023 and 30th 2023 which were the two bottoms of the SPY in the last 6 months. Using VIX and noting the significance of action above 20 is very important to understanding the psychology of the market. Use 20 as a key...
Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high: It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since...
VIX has broken to the upside of this descending trend line as the world holds their breath over the Israel/Iran conflict. This is the first time fear has broken above this trend line since September of 2022. Pair this observation with the current dollar strength and you know which way the markets will go, down.
As stated in this weekends video update, I expected us to retest the top of the red channel first, with potential to drop back inside the channel and test the bottom. The middle yellow channel is also a less likely possibility. I don't think we'll get down to the green again until AFTER we hit are WAVE 5 target and also, Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern target...
50 DMA should easily cross the 200 DMA if Iran will retaliate and it looks like they are set to do so. Can't stand politics, but we have to respect the pillars in order: Macro, Fundamental and finally Technicals,
UVXY which leverages the VIX as a measure of volatility / greed/ fear has finally crossed over the mean anchored VWAP. This is a sign of bullish momentum and perhaps a signal that traders should hedge or consider their positions in terms of hard risk management. Those who traded this move up today made 10% or better in the trade. Those who bought call...
the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out. TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down. Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if...
Traders, In this video I'll cover the spikes we are witnessing in the dollar, fear, and precious metals (specifically gold). We'll discuss what this might indicate to us from a geo-political/macro-economic perspective. Inflation continues to tick up. The SEC continues to attack big players (tokens/coins) in the crypto space without providing rules for how to play...
IWM is currently in a strong accumulation area based on the volume profile delta. The indexes were a bit oversold after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes, leading to a bounce in the afternoon. I am skeptical as to whether today's PPI report and fed speakers will have the same effect so I closed my puts. Here is my reasoning: VIX keeps rejecting above...
The VIX’s structure with higher peaks and troughs became distorted after the FOMC meeting. Despite this being a positive development for the markets, it might be proper to stay attentive to the VIX for a couple more days to watch out for any potential rekindling of volatility. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow...
UVXY on the 30- minute chart is now in an establish falling wedge breakout. Increasing volumes lend support for bullish momentum as does the fear that rate cuts may be postponed the the market's bullrun may stall and correct. This chart is left clean with only trend lines drawn in recognizing that quite a few traders only have a basic subscription on...
If you've been following me for a while, you know that I've been warning of a crash for some period of time, and now I think we're within weeks of that playing out. I've largely been bullish for the past year, with periods where I thought things might fall, but now all of my upside targets for BTC have been hit (minus GETTEX:54K which is still possible) and...