AlexClarkFX

AlexClarkFX Updated 

Recently USTs moved a lot lower as yields continued to push higher on inflation fears and hawkish guidance and communication from Fed. With investors and traders focusing on the 3.5% before any significant correction in stocks. However with the recent push hitting 3.23%, US stocks plunged sparking global risk off sentiment. As such USTs found support from safe...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

Much like gold, silver has been beaten down but has now broken the multi month downwards sloping trend line. Market now building a congestion zone and hasnt broken out like gold has... have to wait and see what happens, but a break of the $15 handle is key for silver then look to get long a pullback and trade the market up to $15.50 - $15.60 for 4.5 to 1 returns...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

Current risk off sentiment in the market is keeping JPY bid across the board with USDJPY breaking below 112 eventhough touch choppy and indecisive around trendline support and horizontal support. It feels like the near term future for risk sentiment depends on the 112 handle for usdjpy. As for Cad, weakening and breaking out on the usdcad chart so were seeing jpy...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

Fundamentals... Post BoC rate decision where the bank raised rates by a quarter point to 1.75% from 1.5% initially USDAD strengthened breaking through 1.30 handle only to close the session back above. And in todays session weakened against the us dollar still holding above the 1.30 level. This doesn't match not only the rate hike but the hawkish guidance...

AlexClarkFX

AUDUSD broke above its multi-month trendline yesterday and closed above on a much larger than expected trade surplus and also Chinese gov report they will support the economy with aggressive stimulus in a "do what ever it takes" approach. This positive news comes at a time when Asia Pac FX is extremely bearish and oversold without much in the way of relief. Trade...

AlexClarkFX

Published 01/11 - RISK ON TRADE IF risk on sentiment returns to the market (even in the short term), JPY will continue to weaken across the board as USDJPY will push higher towards 114.50 resistance. USDJPY bulls defended the 112 handle as USTs found resistance and equities have bounced for now. Also, new positive brexit commentary is out today, with Raab, the...

AlexClarkFX

Published 31/10/18... Fundamental bias = Bearish . Down trending sin Jan2019 mainly due to the slowdown in neighboring china. Slowdown in China began in advance of the US-China Tariffs, however the initial impact of the tariffs dented confidence globally adding to the effect. We've yet to see any impact of tariffs in hard China data, if anything in the short...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

Fundamentals: CHF hasn't been acting in traditional safe haven character, with global risk sentiment in the "off" position and CHF is weakening. Unsure why this is, but if you look at yield spread between treasuries and CH10 its been widening all year as treasury yields rally and CH10 yield is relatively unchanged on the year. jan2018 spread= 250bps & Oct spread =...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

With ongoing weak sentiment for GBP breaking below 1.29 GBPUSD as a result of break down in Brexit negotiations, technicals breaking key levels to the downside helping to push this market lower. On the CAD side the BOC hiked rates today 25bps to 1.75% from 1.5% as expected, but also featured hawkish comments in the statement saying "bringing rates to neutral" and...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

Recently seen risk aversion in the market with US equities almost 9% off the recent peak (SP), US 10 year yields off the highs from 3.25% as low as 3.11% where there is near term support, Traditional high yielding FX (AUD lower, NZD lower, EUR lower, GBP lower), WTI crude 14% off recent peak and safe haven flows lifting JPY, gold, silver and US bonds. We're now...

AlexClarkFX

Fundamentally this AUDUSD been down trending due to slowdown in growth in China. Some of the slowdown in China is due to confidence collapsing due to trade tensions with the US, but yet to see any hard evidence of tariffs impacting Chinese companies. Interestingly in Q3, tariffs have boosted Chinese manufacturing and exports as companies front run the effects of...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

Apologies for late post here... WTI testing the multi month trend line. Recent move higher in oil was due to strong global growth and demand for oil and after US-administration confirmed they would impose sanctions on Iranian exports, the price of oil began to rally in fears of supply risk. As such traders pushed price higher ahead of the November deadline...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

Since April Gold -0.50% has sharply declined and is now horrendously over sold. In fact, the weekly RSI is the lowest in almost 12 months, right before the market rose back towards the highs. Short sellers have battered this market, and there hasn't even been any meaningful profit taking (intermediate retracement), which means the vast majority of the short...

AlexClarkFX Updated 

More of a technical play here, as the market bounced off the 2016 highand has now reached a key inflection point where the 1.150 handle meets Fib618 from the high of the previous leg lower and also horizontal resistance at 1.1490. Technically the lower trendline here if that were to break would be further bearish confirmation. Fundamentally, if the Euro growth...

AlexClarkFX

Over the past few years, playing the rage in the Swiss Franc has been a massive money maker, the range being super wide, just wait for the extremes of the range and play it back to the other side. Fundamentally , The Swiss National Bank, SNB, communicate that they dont want the currency being too strong, (which is the lows on the USDCHF ...

AlexClarkFX

Recently took a short off the 114.50 handle on this pair and covered in to the 112.00 handle. 114.50 is a huge resistance area and has capped price since 2017. I do believe that if the US equity market stabilizes around its 200DMA and makes a new ATH, USDJPY will break the 114.00 area. With US10Y yields rising, US rate differential with JPY at 2.35% and on track...

AlexClarkFX

Heading in to the key EU October summit to be held this Wednesday where Brexit will be discussed. Lots of positive Brexit talk in the last 2 weeks with the EU saying they're prepared to offer a "supercharged Brexit deal" and that "EU are ready to offer a deal" and most recently, German companies (specifically auto sector) putting pressure on the German govt -0.08%...