Fundamentally, if the Euro growth story continues to stall and slow, core CPI in Euro area continues to slow in to year end (opposite to ECB rhetoric) and the US continues on rate path of hiking in to Decemeber and in to 2019 I think the USD will press on and drive EURUSD lower.
CHF has been acting a bit strange, not reacting as normally to usual risk off character and has rebounded here for reasons I dont understand.
Good technical set up and nice reward. Trade offers potential 10 to 1 returns if played back down to the 2018 low 1.1200. With s stop placed just above Fib618 and 1.15 handle a sigificant breach of this level would reassess this market.
When Bund vs BTP spread widens sharply thourgh 300bps due to Italian risk or greek or spanish risk whatever... EUR falls accross the board and CHF gains on safe haven flow. So you have the demand supply thing where each currency moves in opposite directions...
I think the recent unexplained slow grinding move higher in EUFCHF could be as spreads begin to settle down and Italy amended the budget and finally sent it off to Europe... Notice that in todays session (17 Oct) after italian Govt source said there may be downgrades to Italy credit rating, Bund vs BTP spread sharply widened back past 300bps and that resulted in EUFCHF trading around Lod