WTI testing the multi month .
Recent move higher in oil was due to strong global growth and demand for oil and after US-administration confirmed they would impose sanctions on Iranian exports, the price of oil began to rally in fears of supply risk. As such traders pushed price higher ahead of the November deadline pricing in ahead of time. (buy the rumor sell the fact).
Since then profit taking has occurred and then risk sentiment turned negative as US equities sold off sharply. Now were hearing fears that 2019 global growth will slow, China is slowing, EU growth is non existent and now the US may potentially slow too, this affecting demand side for oil . However none of this has actually happened yet.
Looking at demand side: Global growth is still strong... On friday we get the latest US GDP figures for Q3 and currently in the midst of season (the busiest week with 150 SP components reporting this week including ( AMZN ).
Supply side: Iranian sanctions and not enough spare capacity to fill the shortfall left by the sanctions.
Theres also the kashoggi case, where by the US are not going to be happy if the Saudis are caught red handed in the assassination, if the US then decided to punish Saudi Arabia, will the Saudis retaliate by putting an embargo on oil , driving the oil price alot higher, most unlikely scenario but could happen.
Technically, WTI is testing multi month trendline support and 200DMA is close below. bias on oil off of this trendline back towards October high based on strong global demand and tightening supply. If the SP recovers, global risk sentiment improves, with a solid GDP print on Friday could be enough to send oil higher...
However, as always if the trendline breaks and risk sentiment continues to worsen, I wouldnt hesitate to take a short position in this market on a re test of the trendline from the backside.
The timing of this trade, during a risk off environment after Caterpillar missed earnings and reported worries of a slowdown in growth could be a catalyst... In future the make sure if there is a good fundamental reason for a rise in oil that the market is risk on.
Main takeaways is great risk reward and nice set up, risk well managed in this case risked a buck to make $7 potentially. On to the next