Alright so I've come up with a formula between different US Bond Yields resulting in an oscillator indicator - which successfully signals tops on the stock markets and the bear market after.
Based on the area where that oscillator crosses the 0 value (down), we start topping until it comes back up. This period last in average around 1 year and is aligningt +/-...
The 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate
and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate.
A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens.
Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63
in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a...
We are in a strange epoch, at the moment all the US Bonds Yield break an historical trend-line that start in the 80'.
Now it's approach a resistance, that in my opinion it'll break because the interest rate il still low, at the present 2.5% in comparison with an high inflation.
Another consideration is about the volatility we can se in stock market and...
Hey everyone! 👋
This month, we wanted to explore the topic of interest rates; what they are, why they are important, and how you can use interest rate information in your trading. This is a topic that new traders typically gloss over when starting out, so we hope this is a helpful and actionable series for new people looking to learn more about macroeconomics and...
We are currently facing a too much curve inversion which plan for a recession
We can go deeper to green line but this mean the growth will dive strongly
US30 treasuries are hitting a resistance line, 50 MMA and a high RSI and MACD. It seems like a good risk / reward to buy some treasuries here.
If the recession is starting it should put a downward pressure on inflation and treasury rates.
I will buy some TLT ETF and SPPX ETF.
The three decade + trend for bond rates has been downward. In June, we witnessed the first rise above that trend line in recent history, followed by a return to the trendline last week. This is a pivotal point for both bonds and stocks. If stocks drop back down below the trendline, we can see the market go higher in the near term. If the 30 year bond rates...
Historically - inflation has never been defeated except when a long term bond (in this case the 30 year) yield is above the rate of inflation. The collapse of supply has meant too much money chasing too few goods. This means more and more capital is sucked into a blackhole of wage-price spirals. Currently the US has trapped itself against a wall and a hard place...
Treasuries are an intersting play right now. Depending on your home currencies it still might be a good moment to consider stocking up on them in your portfolio.
Couple of notes looking at the chart.
FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate was shown to be around 4% (per June...
For the same reason, I think the US30YT and the US2YT can be inverted at this level by -0.25% and no more can be done because of the high recession level incoming.
In next weeks this will happen, this summer in my point on view
