Luncyan

Luncyan

The final obj is 37 but oil will go down and the same for RUB, the FX cross should make a second contact before. Obj = 93

Luncyan

Possible support from 3200 for the candle to 2800 for the wick. with a mid objective to 3000

Luncyan

We are currently facing a too much curve inversion which plan for a recession We can go deeper to green line but this mean the growth will dive strongly

Luncyan

Copper will fall following the depression currently happening. Next to follow

Luncyan

After the rate shock comes the big DOWN on rates so bond will grow again, HUGE movement inc

Luncyan

Well recession started since Q1 and yes, Q2 will be ugly too Considering lowering of bitcoin. Considering lowering of Nvidia+AMD stocks earnings Considering lowering of TSMC, ASML earnings + end on market multiple Then Sox have to sink deeply to 550. The lowest value in 2009 is 168 so it's still 3 times higher than the lowest point and rich will remain rich....

Luncyan

Because of the loosing monetary policy the currency will devaluate. This should be 145 within 5 months.

Luncyan

And energy will remain the best trade in long term. (going to 185$+ in next cycle). Beautiful double top is forming. However, because of the coming crash. Energy will follow indices even if less than during covid. So I feel the objective to be around 43$

Luncyan Updated 

Just see the end

Luncyan Updated 

I think we are on the top of the long term trend line and it's going to get cold soon. Already started in fact

Luncyan Updated 

As been slow until now, may to july will be bloody

Luncyan Updated 

This is the end of our easy era of bubble the market WITHOUT inflation. Every new move from the FED will lead to high inflation so the next step will be hard for many. Have fun

Luncyan

For the same reason, I think the US30YT and the US2YT can be inverted at this level by -0.25% and no more can be done because of the high recession level incoming. In next weeks this will happen, this summer in my point on view

Luncyan

Considering the high recession potential, I don't think US2YT can raise at a 4,75% level. 3,75% should be more realistic but still high for many

Luncyan

Following my previous analysis, I decided to increase the canal range New objective around 55

Luncyan

I feel like on other indices a huge fall but even with a -75% it's still bull and profitable to invest on stock market. Because 47 is nearly double than the bottom so everything will remain fine and rich will stay rich :) Have a good trade

Luncyan

Currently, we faced a slow deflation in asset prices but when investor will want to start to preserve their performance and capitulate, vix will go up same in europe

Luncyan

I think TERRA LUNA was just an example of a possible market cap loss. When everybody wants to sell there is not counterparty.