We saw an improvement in the CPI numbers at 3%, but the PCE number is what Fed is concerned with as it is still lingering around its high point.
Out of the approximately 4,000 banks in the United States, it seems like JP Morgan, among these top 7 banks we are seeing here, is the only bank that has climbed back up from the March banking crisis. The rest are still...
🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
1:✨Eagle eye: Since 1987, the market has been continuously declining, reaching its valid low in 2020 and confirming the lows in 2022. This is the first valid low in 35 years.
2:📆Monthly: The market is undergoing a change of character from bearish to bullish after 35 years. However, the high has not been confirmed...
This is another scenario which indicates the bond market is going down. RSI is confirming the momentum shift to the down side. Lets see how the market plays out.
The long end yields have been climbing recently and many stock market participants are not recognizing this.
The long end yields market may be signaling to us that inflation is going to be entrenched longer than what mainstream experts are calling for.
On a technical basis the 30 year has now recaptured all the key daily moving averages and looks primed to head...
30 years bond shows weakness on the chart while Dollars index is showing a green bar daily divergence,
Most assets are having a green bars the 31st March will that stay the same till we all go in march
Or take profit and first quarter profit taking will occurr?
Most assets are above their 50% from last bottom
only the Indexes are currently sitting on a +15% ...
✅US30 broke the local rising
Support line and the breakout
Is confirmed because the
4H candle closed below the line
So I am locally expecting a
Move down(after potential
pullback and retest of the broken support)
Towards the target below
Around the 96'16'0 area
SHORT🔥
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Long term views clear up the noise. Looking at this chart shows the 30 year yield is likely going to continue higher.
Long term trend changes are serious and should be respected.
The Fed funds rate is higher than the 30 year treasury interest rate.
The last time that happened was in 2000 and 2008.
What happened back then was that the stock market and the 2 year treasury interest rate both dropped significantly.
Will history repeat itself?
I received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2
The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure...
The US Government Treasury 5Y vs the US Government Treasury 30Y is now back above inverted levels and will continue this path as the FOMC hawkish rhetoric and major policy error will drive the US into a recession this year. It is in our opinion that this trade will move from inversion to +100bp as the FOMC pivots, equity markets falter and the FOMC stops their QT...
One of the more powerful but under-appreciated categories of patterns are very short term drift patterns in strongly trending markets. Flags, pennants and small lateral trading ranges can all fall into this category. The patterns are fractal, that is, they appear across all time frames.
I find small multi drift patterns invaluable. First, they are ubiquitous....
The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22.
At what level will he consider an interest rate cut?
He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut.
Market consensus...
The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22.
At what level will he consider an interest rate cut?
He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut.
Market consensus...
2022 has been very difficult year for traders and investors, but this new year can be much better, here we will guide you in the 2023 in your quest to learn how to trade.
Here is our technical outlook for US30Y.
US30Y is trading within a demand zone.
Based on our view the price will rise.
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