A quick review on indicators specifically, 21-49 EMAs on RSI show a significantbear cross following the same behavior dron 2001 and 2008 recessions, get ready for an important correction on the stock market as I announced days ago.
I believe stock markets worldwide will continue its bull run despite past indicators like the yield curve inversion signaling a bear market/recession. We are entering a new era of time.
On the monthly we can argue the case for 2-year yields being inside a 4th wave correction of a 5 wave sequence since the cycle lows. This advance started in 2011 and for it to remain true we need to remain above the 50% retrace (1.761) which we are currently sitting on.
Anything below here will put questions towards the nature of this rally and destroy...
Here we are tracking for a floor to form at the front end of the curve.
We are currently sitting at key 1.761 support; this will attract buying interest and also mark a good level for shorts to begin unwinding. The congestion area below which includes extension targets will be enough to cap any squeeze/overshoots to the downside.
I will also be uploading a...
FED with no other choice but to cut rates as predicted a few weeks ago. This was no coincidence and perfectly plays into the recession scenario.
Cutting rates with the fully loaded balance sheet is a very precarious task and markets are bound to become increasingly unstable Because of the insanely high uncertainty when it comes to monetary policy.
Long on...
It is very clear from the monthly chart here that this has been an uptrend for some time now. The 2 year yields have started to see some widely anticipated profit taking just shy of the 2.618 extended target for the 3rd wave.
The market has since retraced and held the 23.6% in a corrective 4th wave process.
Time to start paying attention to yields again for 2019.
2YY is falling after a retest of the multi-decade trend. This will be the fourth time in history.
These are followed by a major bear market and recession.
Inversion on the yield curve is making markets very uneasy and for good reason. Now the fed is stuck between to evils. Raising rates to reduce the balance sheet in order to be prepared for the inevitable recession (lets be honest, its too late for that now), OR reduce rates to at least flatten the yield curve. This would show in the yield of the 2 year and 3 month...
USO2Y 2-Year US Treasury Bonds Predicting Interest Rate. If the graph analysis is correct. We can see a nearly 1% downward trend in interest rates this year. Monetary easing is expected.
FX turmoil early in the evening session with the AUDUSD falling to .6750, USDJPY falling through 105 and USDTRY blasting through 5.6.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are taking some heat, too, in what is being explained as carry trades being unwound as market participants are finally getting the gist: growth and inflation are slowing.
In my previous post, my intermediate...
