2:30 to 3:00 PM EST today will provide indications for Globex this evening. Should they follow the usual suit, the Indexes will begin to grind higher into the Close. All of the leaders, with the exception of FB - were sold. Continued Distribution. __________________________________________________________________ With VXZ and SPOT/CASH VIX near Par and 100%...
240 Ticks to Gap Fill. Settlement Wednesday. FOMC Wednesday. ______________________ Short Term, Gap Fill Probability is increasing on ES Symmetry. A Full Retracement could be in Trade.
200+ Ticks to Gap Fill VXZ M1 / V1 lower Gap Fill Continuous Contract simulated in next Commentary. _____________________________________________ ES breaks ATH this week and M1 will correct sharply.
There are complications into next week. In order to avoid the Dramas associated with these opposing forces - permit me to infer the extremes have never quite been this degree of a Cluster F_ck. Fail on Drama, apologies _____________________________________________________________________ An "offsides trade" is again forming as I see 4X Negative Divergences...
Indices continue their Rally. I am posting an analogue for the Indices this morning to demonstrate how similar the RTs are to a recent point in time. We see a large RT during Globex due to the Vix beginning its pullback. ______________________________________ Privately, I was contacted by a number of Traders a few hours before the close - they all now...
sell climax in S&P500 futures should drive a buy climax in volatility index futures followed by a bumpy ride back down below the $21-20 area for VIX
By the numbers, the VIX has repeatedly moved to Extension Price Objectives. In addition, each has been exceeded signaling a move higher. Pullbacks are limited to Globex. High are made during RTH. __________________________________________________________________ Important SMAs Crosses... they ere a sign as well.
As Breath began to indicate an overall collapse in August, narrowing of each successive move high in the NQ & ES were driven by the heavy weights within each Index. The "7" held their ground after Q3 reporting led to some clawback. AMZN was the first to decline, signaling trouble ahead.
BUY vix calls in the 1 to 3 month time frame here. use a reverse pyramid ratio so atm 1 otm 3 deep out 6 and repeat this as a unit slowly
APEX Key - Protection remains Bid out to January 2022. It can Pullback today or tomorrow. It will depend on whether the Indies begin to converge on Lower POs below, by example, the NQ can drop 300+ Points today... No rush, patience wins here. Entries will be provided. _______________________________________________ Sobering up underway - Rehab T4ades are...
The directors of all twelve Federal Reserve Banks favored maintaining the current primary credit rate at the existing level (0.25 percent). In light of the uncertainties associated with the economic outlook, the directors judged that it would be appropriate for the FOMC to maintain the current stance of...
The VIX remains Bid. Large Range - which will trade. No need to Guess. Obey. __________________________________________ 22.70 to 23.10 the Support Zone. No Shortage of MAcro Data and Fed Pelicans to move this around. After the 4th largest one-day percentage spike in history and the 5th Spike this year... the Market undercurrents are one of danger. The...
What is encouraging after Sunday GLOBEX: The VIX exceeded the 50% of 2021 and although it did not make a new high against the Prior Spike High On a Percentage Basis it was the 4th Largest Percentage Spike The Prior Spike did NOT. _________________________________________________________ Use the VIX Pullback for RT Targets for ES YM RTY. VXN for NQ. VIX...
A Gap 10 Handles below - Weekly and Monthly Chart which is of concern for the Bulls. Delta remains the trade in the VIX. Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED. _________________________________________________________________ The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since...
New is always given for the cause of market changes but could the announcement of Jerome Powell vs Lael Brainard decision be a market mover? We will see. Should this chart play out...a third higher low could spark volatility to increase. I see a 1, 3, 5 pattern forming which can affect the market. Time & Price reflects a change somewhere near Dec 6th - Jan 18th...
Down form 398 of the prior Settle. Contango in the Curve remains strong but coming in 26% Month over Month. The VIX Range 20.35 is the LIS 19.70 a break.
Unfortunately, although the Spread has been cut in half, there will remain the usual Gap Fill to complete as VIX INDEX (Cash/Spot) will square Price at the end of tomorrow's Session. VXX will equal the VIX Index. _________________________________________________________ Wednesday's will show, surprise, another Gap on the Continuous Contract. The Gap will be at...
The prior 398 Tick Settlement has declined to ~269 Ticks. __________________________________________________ Daily Low VX Price Objective remains 12.25. It is difficult to Imagine - A VIX print this Low. __________________________________________________ December has become a significantly distorted Settlement Month for Equity Future...