US 2y yield (blue line) vs GER 2y yield (red line)...The spread is immensely wide as the FED has been in a hiking phase wile the ECB still continues to apply a "whatever-it-takes policy". Eventually the ECB policy will have to roll back and front-end yields will react by backing up. I believe the German 2y yield will eventually move higher and lead the...
Are we headed for a flat Yield Curve? The Yield Curve highlights the spread between short term and long term bonds and is an important indicator of economic growth. We are currently in an uptrend, with short interest rates lower than longer maturities. A flat yield curve can signal an adjustment in the economy and a shift in growth. It precedes an inverted...
The difference between the US 10 and 5 year yield is down to just 20bps. The market is reflecting short-term growth and short-term Fed tightening, but sees inflation firmly anchored at 2% for the long-term. The fact that inflation is at 2% also keeps equity valuations up, but for how long? As the curve flattens to 2006 levels, are we 12-18 months away from an...
Although the fake news would have you believe that the Eurozone is fast on its way to recovery, it is still mired with issues and the failed Euro is taking its toll on German yields. There is still geopolitical tension, a migrant crisis, and a huge stagnation in inflation that extends to the entire developed world. The Kovach Chande is incredibly bearish and we...
The yield curve (spread between the 30 year and 2 year spread) just broke below 1%. All indicators suggest this trend to continue. It has been encroaching the lower Bollinger Band of the Kovach Reversals Indicator, with no retracement in sight. A retracement will be confirmed by a green triangle, if an when it happens. The Federal reserve should be very ...
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of 10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of 10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of 10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
When fed funds above Treasury Yield Curve Rates and Treasury Yield Curve Rates at zero or negative (inverted).. well new crisis has arrived in the next months... not there yet but getting closer.
Watch out for a failure at the neckline resistance of 2.31% followed by a break below 2.263%. Such a move would signal the corrective rally has ended and the yield is heading towards 2.00%. Failure at the neckline would also signal a top in the Dollar-Yen and a potential sell-off in the equities.
A weekly close below 2.3% would open up downside towards 2.0% (target as per measured height method)
The yield found support at 1.28% (former channel resistance) yesterday and has staged a rebound to 1.33%. The major averages - 50-DMA, 100-DMA and 200-MA are all sloping upwards and nicely aligned (one below the other) suggesting the long-run view remains bullish.
The yield looks set to test the expanding channel formation resistance seen around 0.55% as the RSI is yet to hit the overbought territory, although a pull back to 0.393% (Feb 15 high) cannot be ruled out given the loss of bullish momentum as highlighted by the daily MACD.
US Oil prices and the 2-year treasury yield correlation has been strong ever since Trump won the elections. But from late Feb, the two have been moving in the opposite directions. The reason is quite clear - markets positioned for a March rate hike... given the hawkish talk from the Fed officials. The question now is will the yields follow oil prices? It all...
German 10-yr Bund prices dropped to rising trend line support coming from June low and July low. Prices are attempting a rebound form the rising trend line support and the odds of a solid rebound are high, if we take into consideration the bullish price RSI divergence on the hourly and 4-hr chart. Even the MACD is suggesting the bearish momentum has run out of...
Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to overshadow next week’s FOMC rate decision, said Marc Ostwald, Strategist at AMD Investor Services International on today’s finance show. Ostwald focused more on BOJ and explained the reasons for the recent steepening of the bond yield curve and its impact on the financial markets. Watch the segment with Marc Ostwald here –...