arigolden

arigolden

The current US Dollar Index (DXY) rally + level looks familiar... Previous DXY peaks have signalled crypto markets bottoms (as seen by the Crypto Total Market Cap and BTCUSD)

arigolden

Increases in the US Fed Funds rate during the FED's hiking cycles have always preceded a recession. A simple analysis of the most recent recessions, the amount of rate hikes preceding them and the downward trending channel in which FED Fund Rates have moved suggest the FED only has room for 150bp worth of hikes (or a total of 6 hikes).

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Increases in the US Fed Funds rate during the FED's hiking cycles have always preceded a recession. A simple analysis of the most recent recessions, the amount of rate hikes preceding them and the downward trending channel in which FED Fund Rates have moved suggest the FED only has room for 150bp worth of hikes (or a total of 6 hikes). OANDA:SPX500USD FRED:FEDFUNDS

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This is simply (forget all the FED stimulus holding these markets up) a case of market-cap weighted exaggeration vs an equally-weighted reality: While the S&P500 Index (market-cap weighted) is bear rallying higher since its March 2020 lows, the Value Line Geometric Composite Index (equally weighted) is NOT confirming this move at all. The SPX has made it back...

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2020 The Great CoviDebt Reset sees markets initially drop by -36%. FED pushes market back up by +33%, right near the monthly 20 EMA level. CB intervention continues to push markets higher which further widens the gap between the markets and economic reality. The last two major pullbacks during the 2001 tech bubble and 2008 global financial crisis saw >50%...

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Three simple reasons why markets are still broken and why I lean towards the much higher probability of another move down despite FED stimulus: 1) Garbage prospects for equity earnings - earnings were terrible a long time before COVID-19 hit and this is way beyond a virus now: -Earnings were terrible way before COVID-19 -Q4 2019 was the worst fall in EPS....

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Please note I am using the TradingView Confirmed TOTAL COVID data line and then projecting how I think COVID will progress using the Spanish Flu as precedence - I am also assuming there will be no vaccine at least till next summer: I have tried to keep this analysis/projection simple using two estimates: 1) Looking at how the Spanish flu happened in 3 waves and...

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Thought it would be interesting to visualize the recent breakdown of correlation coefficients between the equity markets (SPX) vs fixed income (US10y yield) and commodities using a weekly chart and plotting the correlation coefficients vs the following: WTI oil (growth indicator) and gold (safe haven). A correlation coefficient of +1 indicates assets moving very...

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Using a monthly chart of the S&P 500 I am simply charting two interesting characteristics based solely on longer-term technical analysis and charting: 1) what percentage was the drop in 2008 SPX levels and what was the corresponding percentage drop in the stochastic RSI level (to see at what level was it oversold) vs what percentages we have dropped for the same...

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Charting the LOG of the US 2y yield (blue line) compared to that of the US 10y yield (red line) here shows the heavy move up in the 2y compared to the 10y. This, in my opinion, is very important because a 2y yield at or above 3% will likely drive short-medium term market reaction. Some of my thoughts on the 2y, 5y, and 10y points of the curve for context: • The...

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The current trajectory of the flattening in the US Treasury 5s30s curve (30y yield minus 5y yield) and the 10s30s curve (30y yield minus 10y yield) illustrates a potential for the following: 1) A flat curve by July 2018 if the flattening trajectory continues (green lines); 2)A flat curve by Nov 2018 if we plot the trajectory from the recent steepening of the...

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US 2y yield (blue line) vs GER 2y yield (red line)...The spread is immensely wide as the FED has been in a hiking phase wile the ECB still continues to apply a "whatever-it-takes policy". Eventually the ECB policy will have to roll back and front-end yields will react by backing up. I believe the German 2y yield will eventually move higher and lead the...

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The red rectangle highlights the current Yield-Red-Zone for equities. Initially, as the US10y yield (blue line) moved above 2.6% starting at the vertical yellow line, the SPX started to move sideways. Yields continued higher putting a cap on equities and once the 10y yield moved past 2.8% (the start of the Yield-Red-Zone), equities began to falter and...

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Most textbooks will tell you that a higher yield attracts capital inflows and therefore demand for that currency increases and in turn, increases the value of that currency. This chart shows exactly the opposite happening with the US10y yield and the US dollar going in opposite directions. Some can argue that this is the intention of the Trump administration to...

arigolden Updated 

I see strong of support for the 10y at just above the key 2.40% level: -Current 10y levels have finally crossed over the trend-line going back to July – strong near-term indicator is broken which suggests 10y support at/above 2.40%. -Interestingly, the ~2.40% yield level is the .618 Fibonacci level which we have also crossed over – this is a key Fib level which...

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Based 80% on technicals and 20% on fundamentals, oil looks quite oversold: Technicals: Oil has now traded below RSI 30 mark (last few times it reached these levels it bounced back on oversold levels) and is finding support and flirting with its 1 year trend line. Fundamentals: Oil consumption continues to increase globally, even within the context of extra...

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Sell Sept 10yr Treasury futures, given that Fed policy (Yellen) is still adamant about a rate hike. The point here is not IF the Fed will raise rates but that the Fed needs to introduce some form of normalization into the market through a rate hike - zero rates when the US paper economy points to strength signals that near zero rates are absolutely not necessary...

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Like this name more than CyberArk. Seems to be more predictable. With the recent zerohedge.com, wsj.com, united and nyse technology-related issues the corporate demand for IT security hardware, software, and services should continue to be strong with well-publicized hacks/breaches essentially becoming a very real risk.