The calculation of the US10Y - US02Y has commonly been used to measure the yield curve inversion. Historically, when the curve inverts and then inverts back, it has led to a significant recessionary period globally. And I know this information might be hard to understand for attention-deficient people like zoomers, so I included some helpful meme labels for them...
The Bond Yield Curve, which can be calculated by substracting the US 2 Year bond yield from the US 10 Year bond yield, has been inversed for quite some time. An inversion of the bond yield basically means that bond traders require higher returns on short-term bonds than on long-term bonds, which translates to short-term bonds being more risky than long-term ones....
TVC:DXY on left in all charts (only DJI shown here) DJ:DJI & CBOE:SPX & TVC:TNX on right. Short term we are badly due for some sort of relief rally, we nibbled in this area AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SPXL Not sure how high this can go so we have been nibbling and will sell in tranches. #stocks TVC:NDQ AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
Good Morning! Historically, Since 1967, #interestrates have been MUCH higher, around 2008 they began to go lower. Most individuals never mention this. So what's the BIG DEAL?! The US was growing FASTER & the DEBT is now ASTRONOMICAL! Costs a TON in payments alone! SOMETHING has to give, SOON. Daily we could be setting up for some relief. TVC:TNX
This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining...
Trader Joe is pulling back to 50MA where it seems likely to bounce again. ⚡️⚡️ #JOE/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (4.2X) Amount: 4.9% Current Price: 0.25930 Entry Targets: 1) 0.24800 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.29595 Stop Targets: 1) 0.22400 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:JOE BYBIT:JOEUSDT.P #TraderJoe...
G-Morning! Shorter term yields haven't moved much as of late. Demand has slowed down & this coincides with the expectation that the #fed will be cutting rates soon. The 2Yr #yield recently caught up with the strength of the shorter term #InterestRates & looks to be settling in the area just like the others. On the other end the 10 Yr #yield has been...
60/40 is the popular investment strategy that has gone terribly wrong to the international investors. If any it might turn out to be the third year in row. While the liquidity is pouring in the bonds (safety?), the bets for yields fall is coming down. The recent up-move of USD is anything but a factor of another 25 basis point move higher in terms of cost. Not...
Going 2b away today meeting with partners. This post might just be the only one today TVC:DXY This is a pretty strong trend. TVC:TNX That last move was stronger than previous, look at the RSI. 10Yr #yield. TVC:VIX This move was also with more strength than previous moves. Conclusion: Our call to end BULL run was spot on. Should've went BEAR, it's...
It's important to keep and eye on the 10 & 2Yr yields. The inverted #yield curve has huge prediction probability. BUT The strongest aspect of this is when it normalizes. We're not far from that as the10yr has been pumping and the shorter time frames have been pretty stagnant. Now, there's 2 ways this happens. Soft landing, economy slowly recovers OR Lower...
The 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days. Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about. TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again? The only odd man out is the $VIX. It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is...
Akropolis printed a shooting star deviation and seems likely to retrace down to 100EMA support, especially with that overbought RSI. ⚡️⚡️ #AKRO/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Short) Leverage: Isolated (2.6X) Amount: 4.9% Current Price: 0.018692 Entry Targets: 1) 0.019243 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.013254 Stop Targets: 1)...
Vix is price of call and put 'at the money" annualized. the current vix yield cut in have gives us an estimate of downside premium put sellers collect and buyers are paying. its near 8%. its probably less because there is a slight upward skew. In the last 20 years, there have been times when vix has spiked very high and this "put yield" has been roughly 40% for...
Hey guys! Today, we're looking at a Trade Idea in AMD, the popular semiconductor company that often plays second fiddle to Nvidia (NVDA). Like most of our trade ideas, this post focuses on selling put options - this time, on AMD shares. In case you're unfamiliar with options -> when you sell a put option, one of two things happens. Either; A.) The stock price...
The 3 & 6Month #yield look similar. The 3M looks just a tad better. The 1 & 2Y ear look very similar RECENTLY. However, the 1Yr is higher than the #BankingCrisis highs. The 10Y TVC:TNX gave a lot back but it's @ support here. Could have some sort of bounce here. But the most interesting chart is of the TVC:DXY US #Dollar. It looks like it wants to bounce...
#Bond #yield has been moving well lately, but today. SO FAR, they're rolling over, and some hurting more than others. We've mentioned that steam has been running out for some time. Look @ the RSI negative divergence on almost all of the #yields 6M weakening. 1Yr RSI CRATERING. 2YR hurting & RSI DECIMATED It is at major support. TVC:TNX is the lone wolf. Must...
Cocoa continued its upward price trajectory, rising 3% over the prior month (22 May to 23 June 2023). The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has corrected its forecast for the supply deficit on the cocoa market in the current crop year up from 60,000 tonnes to 142,000 tonnes as production is expected to be lower and grinding higher than previously expected....
The consensus is LOWER #interestrates (I mean, they have been around 3.2ish) Every time the 10Yr #yield was in this same situation it FOLDED. Easier to see on daily. However, something looks lil different this time around. Can't make it out on the daily. Let's see the weekly chart. Hmmm... Not yet, but gaining momentum... If the 10 Yr yield starts pumping this...