It was preparation to exit the longs, it looked as if the end of the bull run. We borrowed enough on the already brittle confidence about inflation. Cinematic events push U turn, those who left unwinding rued, those who were holding also rued, those who sat all through did not have any opinions that sums up the plot, otherwise an RED slotter for both bulls and...
One more day, one more loss "of words". Since start of this year, bulls and bears share the honours, with turns and twists, that includes gap up and down, large candles, large wicks, you name it you got it. Yesterday moves remain the icing on the cake. This stems from the larger negative cues, domestic volatile moves, VIX on the rise. One more time Gift Nifty...
The reluctant sell zone, get the reality buy check. Bounces and move past the upper zone of 45200-300. Fin Expiry adds to the spice. While the close is encouraging, the last couple of days of moves if anything to go buy is lower lows and lower highs. Save yesterday. The PIP graph is the Intra-day graph. Let's dwell on the overnight cues the CPI. This is...
The fall in Nifty bank was not to our expectation, the broader market takes the load, more so the PSU pack. Stronger Industrial Growth, stronger than expected inflation, path is optimistically unclear. While domestic growth is resilient, it is the Global Canvass that can print certain doubts in the darts that one wishes to through. The US Dollar, the Yields...
The commonsense demands to carry an umbrella; when it is rainy season; clouds are thick and there is a weather warning. We did warn here and other places, the excess; don't want to use the word froth, that is sure to bring corrective moves. Look at some of the spaces that have wilted near 33% from the highs, to reach that you need 50% up move. Ask anyone, if...
Interest rates on EPF have been one indicator of the markets in previous cycles to foresee the path. For, these rates are an indication that the path of the rate is much more stable in the direction of the action. This time increase. We are back to where we were nearly a decade plus. US CPI revised one comes unchanged, takes some sting out of the worries, but...
The Friday moves from the Index does not reflect the underly belly volatile moves beneath. PSU Pack gets hammered, that is where the maximum interest has been in the recent times. Very short term most of the sectors looks softer save a bottom move in Nifty bank (nothing guaranteed yet and Pharma sector. Here too selective rule the roost. NIFTY ENERGY n Metals...
The much awaited RBI policy comes and goes, re-read our yesterday posting. 1. What is not said is more important than what is said. 2. It is not the news, but the reactions to the news. 2. Focus on Digital Space and regulation, you got lots on this fron too. Some cryptic messages form the policy. 1. Liquidity is ample contrary to market perceptions we did two...
It should come no surprise that the revelations about certain tip givers have actually front run and then post their show they liquidate. It is utter disregard to fiduciary relationship, when ethics are thrown, the result is pathetic. Poor retail who gets the burn out from his hard savings. The "G" shock is sooner or later. As we write, show your finger, it...
Very rarely markets looked for our policy action, it is more less well telegraphed and expected. Today's one appears to be not in that category. We had two VRR the other-day, excess liquidity? Then there are statements from Banking Secretary, that PSU Banks are losing fast the CASA. Blame the quick gain equity markets? Markets have in many counters becoming,...
UN Chief terms current geo-political landscape as age of "Chaos" There appears to be an end to the Israeli Cease Fire, both claiming victories. Interesting to watch Tuskar Interview with Putin. While one can easily admit a mini-Chaos if not major one, this part is relevant even in financial markets. While the world is fighting for inflation to bring down to...
On an ideal day, NIFTYBANK should have held to the opportunity and should have risen. The fall is a disappointment to start with. The failure coming from Mid BB, the bearish close points some lower before any higher. The cost of CASA deposits falling, while the banks with the advantage of CASA are some of the points markets focussing. One can debate the...
Expected gap down did not materialise instead the gap up, if we adjust that piece to the puzzle market held in good stead and the close turns out to be in favour of the bears. After the gravestone doji, we have body bearish engulfing gravestone. Bearish but needs some more conform for larger degree. FEB in recent times is prone for Volatility after the Jan...
UBS in its weekly blog writes about Stranded asset. It is an asset that loses its value earlier than expected. The main causes range from change in underlying economic structures, innovation and revolution making the previous ideas into liabilities. The I told you, so story is more on the face in terms of financial assets forecasting than ever. When Auto...
"Tea" is popular beverage/drink across the globe. There were "Tea" leaves that one could infer the market dynamics, then there are tea parties. There as a proposal in the US to add salt to the tea. The new and controversial book Steeped: The Chemistry of Tea. In this book the author prescribes adding bit of salt to the cup of tea to reduce the bitterness. So...
A day that starts on a note and ends on a similar note, but in between the drama that the markets decide to focus. To start it is the Japan Yields that skyrocketed. The longer yields still climbing. All these on a low base, so the percentage terms are huge. For a start the previous high on 2 Y is 0.15 basis, and look set to climb one more time. BOJ clearly said...
Open was against the cues, negative, the dive, hits our part profit, then moves back to our trailing stop. Falls again, gathers support, rises. Rises hopes. The rise was largely lead by the Metals, on the back of CRR cut of 0.5% starting from Feb 5 by the Chinese Central Bank. One has to understand the difference between "stabilising" and "reviving". As recently...
Leader Blinks, Followers wink. HDFC continues its march, pulling the gravitation towards it. Nothing is spared, double whammy of PSU Index and PSU banks further punctures. Long unwinding is the word than profit taking. Indus IND joins, Kotak is not far behind, lone saviour is the ICICI Bank. The gap of 28 November filled yesterday; we are in the fourth week of...