507 days since ES mini crossed over the death cross. My idea is that the fed QE and stimulus bill passed March 27 elevated the market out of its previous channel formed in the 2008 financial crisis into a much steeper "By The Dip Channel". The market will need to eventually cross over the 50/200 day death cross. Last encountered March 27 (507d) Big MOC ES...
Not legal and financial advice; Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Goodmorning traders and welcome to the most important day of the rest of the month. It is exactly 1 year ago when gold made its all time high at $2075. The FED has two targets to raise interest rates and start tapering. The first is inflation above the 2% target per year (currently sits around 3.5%), so that is a check. ✅ The second is that the labor market gets...
Hi guys, Goldy is rangebound for over a week now and I am expecting a breakout this week. Today is the last day for Basel III, and I expect the metalbanks to start buying gold this week with ADP & NFP functioning as the fundamental catalyst. Gold bulls have done a terrific job so far to de-accelerate the selling and dips are being bought pretty quickly. We have...
What a great pair to trade recently! Let me explain why - Currencies have lacked momentum of volume. Even though, gold has been range bound the moves has been a lot cleaner on scalp trades including silver too. However, today will be very critical which us trades much pay attention. Jackson Hole Summit, Powell to speak today about monetary policies longer term...
Hello, today is an extremely important day. We are waiting for the press conference of Jerome H. Powell and the movements he will provoke. One option that looks good is USDCHF. Here we have a break of the downward trend and then the development of a triangle. This triangle will most likely be broken today! We expect to see a rise, as trades are recommended...
Trump: China is ready to go back to the negotiating table. China, for its part, reiterated its desire to resolve trade problems through negotiations. safe-haven assets against this background have slightly adjusted and provided excellent opportunities. Despite the optimistic comments from Trump’s side as well as Chinese, everything might change. We have recently...
Horror Stories From the G7 and/or Jackson Hole Over the Weekend? Investors seem to be fretting over the potential for market horrors to unfold over the weekend involving unexpected headlines from the G7 summit or the Jackson Hole. Add to this the Friday options expiration plays and we have got a recipe for chaotic and inexplicable moves today, especially during...
$CNY is higher than the initial breakout which caused mass panic among the macro tourists on TV. Instead all eyes are on the hapless Fed Chair who shall be known as the man who crashed equities markets. Equity markets will get spooked regardless whatever Powell decide to do. A hold means money's too tight, a full blown rate cut program means an acknowledgment...
(these plans were published at tradersai.com much earlier - re-posting it here for your easy reference; please subscribe at tradersai.com for free - no credit card required - if you want to be able to view the posts as soon as they are originally published) PLEASE NOTE that the chart shows a short level at 2921 (from yesterday), but it is updated to 2918 (the...
Find out on the next episode of Dragon Ball DXY... Or we could just guess with what we know now like any analyst. Expecting fed meeting minutes to state what the fed members are stating already, they believe the economy is still resilient and does not need too much expansionary policy, cuts above standard aren't necessary, etc. These statements will reassure many...
We have already noted that this week promises to be calm but The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual symposium, traditionally gathering representatives of all the leading Central banks in the world, might give enough reasons for bursts of volatility. The most vulnerable are the euro and the dollar. Weak inflation in the Eurozone (yesterday's report...
The Fed and ECB chiefs have kept their promise not to touch on the monetary policy issues in Jackson Hole, but Janet Yellen has suddenly succeeded more in that. The dollar lost ground on Friday after the release of text version of Yellen speech which was generally useless for investors. The absence of any clues was a signal for the reduction of dollar positions...
The German economy has revealed signs of slowdown, despite the widespread economic pickup in the euro area and the concomitant strengthening of the euro. A number of data released on Friday pointed to a slowdown in exports and imports in the second quarter. Investment optimism also declined, probably due to the strengthening of the euro, overshadowing the...
We have a bullish Gartley setting up on the EURGBP with an entry that aligns with previous structure. There is nothing bullish about the Pound, and if Mario Draghi fails to specifically address the exchange rate/detailed monetary policy again tonight then we should see further upside to this pair. All the best, Mase.
Good evening traders, There is a bearish Bat pattern forming on the EURJPY up at the 1.30100 level that we will be looking to enter only if the moon (price) and the stars (Mario Draghi, Jackson Hole) align. We're hoping for a return of more volatile markets, and Jackson Hole could well be the catalyst. Have a plan and trade it. All the best, Mase.
We can enter a 0.5% risk long in GBPUSD to get started and then add in the coming days, and tighten the stop as well. The short term trend has shifted to the upside, and now it's in sync with the daily chart, which shows a potential low is in place, specially confirmed if we don't hit 1.2799 in the next 3 days. Let's see how this evolves. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
DXY: 1. Given the firming of USD STIR/ Fed funds following Yellens JH remarks and the markets hawkish reaction i still think there is another % or so of topside to be priced into USD topside. - Fed funds implying 36% probability of a Sept hike - the highest implied prob in 3 months - hence given cables 50pip appreciation i feel theres another 100pips here to be...