S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/25 Notwithstanding Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, our models continue to not give credence to the bounce above 4400 in SPX. We need confirmatory signs before we negate our bearish bias. In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down,...
DLTR dropped on a mild earnings beat. It is now below a volume shelf at 128. Indicators including the MACD suggest a reversal as bullish divergence is showing. The mass index supports a reversal. On the dual time frame RSI, the low TF green line is above the higher TF black line which is weaker. Overall, DLTR could retrace to 133 based on the Fib retracement...
Gold is possibly still within its descending channel, though it has discovered a foothold at $1885 and demonstrated an upward shift this week due to a decline in bond yields. However, the anticipation is for the Fed funds rate to remain higher for longer, so gold’s upside potential might be short-lived. Butting up against this hypothesis is the very recent...
The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720, down 0.09%. The UK economy continues to cool down, and today's PMI readings showed deceleration in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The Manufacturing PMI eased to 42.5 in August, down from 45.3 and below the consensus estimate of 42.5. The...
With treasury yields hovering close to their highest point in the past 15 years, attention is squarely focused on the forthcoming policy speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell this Friday at the Jackson Hole event. The primary interest lies in gauging the current level of hawkishness exhibited by the Federal Reserve. Anticipations are that Fed Chair Jay Powell will...
KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would keep the bias as bearish below 1945 and we would be looking for the target level of 1890. Ideally, we wanted the support levels to hold giving us a move for the long trades, and then we would be looking upside resistance to short the market again down into the given level. Unfortunately, we didn’t get the...
Upside: 448.06 → 448.92 → 450.48 → 451.70 → 453.07 Downside 443.97 → 442.97 → 441.98 → 441.08 → 439.46 Technical Analysis: Since making yearly lows in March, SPY has been in a larger uptrend channel, with its last higher high peaking in July. Since making this high SPY has made a downwards channel on the daily inside the larger upwards chanel, and looks to...
Upside: 15172 → 15260 → 15333 → 15444 → 15582 Downside 14995 → 14947 → 14888 → 14810 → 14656 Technical Analysis: Similar to ES, NQ had a down week and closed right on its bullish trendline support tracing back to the lows made in March of this year. NQ had a much weaker close than ES, finishing down 0.69% in Friday's session. I am looking to see if NQ holds this...
The threat on the long term chart is unpleasant for GBP, 1.15xx and 1.05xx have been set up. Just at the right moment, because BOE cannot now recapture the short-end of the rate curve with inflation still to reach his goal. To open things up, a simple test below 1.175x is all that is needed with Jackson to unlock the flow; a textbook swing ever since we saw...
AMEX:UVXY My UVXY is that fear and volatility will rise after the Powell speech from Jackson Hole WY tomorrow. Accordingly, I expect UVXY to reverse its current downtrend while the S & P and NASDAQ slowly rise Accordingly, I will buy the $9.50 strike call options expiring September 2nd now priced at 35 cents er each or $35.00 for one contract. I expect a...
USDJPY Intraday - We look to Buy at 137.55 (stop at 136.67) The primary trend remains bullish. We look for a temporary move lower. Support is located at 137.50 and should stem dips to this area. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 137.50, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be...
EUR/USD has edged higher today and is trading at the parity line. In the North American sesssion, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0019, up 0.57%. The US dollar has posted sharp gains against the major currencies, as Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole left no doubt that the Fed will continue to tighten rates in its titanic battle with surging inflation. The...
The US dollar shot up as hawkish comments from the Jachson Hole retreat sent yields soaring. We have broken through our recent high of 109.30, making new highs at 109.47. We are just a few ticks south of our target of 109.86. Despite the strong hawkish tone of Fed officials last week at Jackson Hole, it does feel like a technical retracement may be in store for...
Stocks swiftly sold off as the markets digested comments from the Jackson Hole retreat. This is a gathering of central bankers from around the world, and while no 'official' policy decisions are made, the markets pay great attention to comments made by key members. In particular, Jerome Powell came off sufficiently more Hawkish than anticipated , and the...
Traders, Let's talk about today's FOMC press release, the market's current reaction, and where we can expect this will lead us into next week as well as what today's FED vs. BIDEN admin tug-o-war means for future macroeconomic conditions.
we are channel trading/consolidation. and this will probably continue till the meetings coming up. my main thesis is based off a few things. the up coming Jackson Hole meeting followed by Fed Jpow Friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by Sept October. there is alot of factors influencing this, inflation, rate hikes, etc. 390 would be the area im looking...
Last week saw SPX and Nasdaq's bear market rally finally clip into April and May highs before the week finished notedly, albeit not too terrifyingly, lower. All along the way, none of the Twitterati or the media cartel has so much as issued a peep about the Federal Reserve's critical Jackson Hole meeting lying in wait at the end of August. Notably, two of the...
Bitcoin Intraday - We look to Buy at 21251 (stop at 20688) Trading within a Corrective Channel formation. The trend of higher lows is located at 21200. Dips continue to attract buyers. Our profit targets will be 22648 and 23148 Resistance: 21700 / 22500 / 23000 Support: 21000 / 20800 / 20000 Please be advised that the information presented on...