Why has the relationship between inflation and unemployment reversed in recent times? (Phillips curve) -
1. 1980s vs 2017 - Expansion in govt and consumer credit, economic boom, demographics
2. unemployment manipulation/ part time, participation rate 4pts lower 63 vs 67.
3. Servicing debt rather than consuming more goods/ services - wage v debt differential
Preparing for a Trump win
Following Friday and the FBIs decision to re-open the case on Hilary I have decided I am going to assume A Trump win, this is for several reasons:
1) After reading into it, the reopening of the FBI case implies one of three things imo - 1. They have found new significant...
1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows.
USD risks are bid
1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015...
Opec to cut or not to cut?
* I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.*
1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective.
2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to...
Presidential Election - Trump wins - MXN more sensitive than USD, Yen to pick up the risk-off shift:
1. Positioning for a trump win is much more interesting than a hilary win but nonetheless both should be profitable at some level. My number 1 position will be SHORT MXNJPY for a number of reasons 1) MXN has been very sensitive to the USD election given trade...
Long EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction:
1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously.
2. Ive been...
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level.
3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although...
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level.
1. Sell USDJPY at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on...
As expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent...
The $ and Fed funds remains flat on the day (Dec 56%) despite somewhat hawkish comments from Lockhart, and in particular putting November on the table.. though the market realistically has Nov priced fairly at 10% given a hike here wouldnt make much sense vs Dec. Fed Powell on the otherhand was much more neutral, offering little but more uncertainty/ data...
USD has traded relatively flat following the slew of Fed speakers in the past 8hrs - despite Dec Fed Funds steepening aggressively from <50% implied probability to 56% probability of a hike. Perhaps more interestingly though, is that a fed hike has never happened in the past unless fed funds have priced 50% and recently we have traded below this figure which makes...
Draghi: Our Measures Are Working, Creating Jobs
Draghi: Our Measures Ensure Recovery that Will Ultimately Benefit German Savers, Pensioners
Draghi: We Take German Concerns Seriously
Draghi: Economic Policies are Essential to Complement our Monetary Policy
Draghi: Price Stability Doesn't Mean Inflation of 0%
Draghi: We Need to Act When Inflation Is...
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURAUD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.87%, hence there is a implied 99.13% chance of reversal on the daily.
1. Buy EURAUD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and...
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level.
1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each...
-ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERBANKING A FACTOR IN LOW LEVEL OF BANK PROFITABILITY
-ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERCAPACITY MEANS SECTOR IS NOT EFFICIENT
-ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS LIFE INSURERS FACE WEAK PROFITABILITY UNLESS THEY REFORM BUSINESS MODELS
-ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS MARGIN AND HAIRCUT REQUIREMENTS COULD IMPROVE FINANCIAL STABILITY
BOE'S FORBES: NOT YET...
ECB ECONOMIC BULLETIN:
-Economic Recovery In The Euro Area Is Continuing
-Moderate Global Growth Continued In The First Half Of 2016
-Governing Council Expects The Economic Recovery To Proceed At A Moderate But Steady Pace
-Annual Real GDP Expected To Increase By 1.7% In 2016, By 1.6% In 2017 And By 1.6% In 2018
-Annual HICP Inflation Seen At 0.2% In 2016, 1.2%...
Gov Lowe speech Highlights:
-RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN
-RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR
-RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY...
RBNZ not adding much new in their September statement, and imo, Gov Wheelers speech highlighting the issues with trying to control a ccy with the cash rate makes the persistent worries regarding kiwi/ nzd strength less of a dovish factor than it may appear. Nonetheless, the statement on the margin was neutral, with perhaps the pressure for a lower kiwi and...