WellTrainedMonkey

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

This is a follow-up on my Mar 9 post on NASDAQ:NVDA and I feel using the NASDAQ:SMH would explain overall market picture better. I struggled with how to frame this post as it is a combination of zooming into lower fractals and zooming out to higher fractals and hope this weekly chart helps. In the immediate short-term, markets are oversold and you can spot...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Immediate negative outlook for NASDAQ:NVDA with:- #1 the bearish engulfing candle, #2 accumulated volume hitting 1.9x standard deviation implying a climatic topping, #3 +4x standard deviation on the daily MACD and +5.3x standard deviation on the weekly MACD. Taken together, this looks like a climatic topping act NASDAQ:NVDA ion for a parabolic surge.

WellTrainedMonkey

The bearish engulfing candle in NASDAQ:NVDA just below an intra-day neckline support turned resistance as we head into weekly and monthly option expiries does not bore well for folks who are long stock or short volatility.

WellTrainedMonkey

This is a follow-up from my AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ note:- -> Classic top out with MACD peaking at +2.5x standard deviation and accumulated volume topping out at +3.5x standard deviation. -> Very likely witnessing a lower high forming at 0.618x fibonacci retracement.

WellTrainedMonkey

Follow up from my AMEX:SPY note. -> Bearish island reversal gap formation at +1.9x standard deviation from long-term trend -> NASDAQ:QQQ multiple MACD negative divergence -> MACD hitting +2x standard 3x in 3 months -> AMEX:IWM likely making a lower high at the upper boundary of an established channel

WellTrainedMonkey

Couple of red flag on US equities in general:- -> Fibonacci projection achieved as the S&P500 is within whiskers of round figure resistance at 5k -> AMEX:SPY at +1.9x standard deviation from trend -> Multiple negative MACD divergence -> Low volumes suggest lack of participation -> Island gap formation in QQQ -> IWM likely making a lower high at upper boundary...

WellTrainedMonkey

On the eve of NASDAQ:NVDA earnings report, it is interesting to note the $NQ price volume support has turned into overhead resistance as the $NQ struggles against the 0.786x retracement level and higher interest rates. The correction in 2022 was all about higher interest rates choking off growth and lowering implied equity premium to above +1x standard...

WellTrainedMonkey

Crypto is probably enjoying a tailwind from the SVB blow-up. Technically speaking, you can see the price-volume clusters around the $17k level which coincides with the 78.6% retracement level. Price action is confirming a price trough with capitulation volume seen during the Nov price trough and now a higher low on low selling volume.

WellTrainedMonkey

If there is ever a sign that there has been NO capitulation in this stock market, $NVDA has to be it because we still have uninformed reckless BTFD behaviour. Last night post-earnings price action was a case-in-point. Consider this, between Jan 2019 to Feb 2023, the stock has gone up c.8x while eps remains approximately the same at $1.76 for FY ending Jan 2023...

WellTrainedMonkey

So I keep hearing folks talk about a USD peak but I see a DXY which has broken out of a wedge and is now testing the break out. Using the EURUSD as a proxy (because it has a c.58% weight in the DXY), you can see the inverse:- 1. a breakdown from a continuation wedge, 2. test of the breakdown, 3. over-extended and mean reverting MACD 4. price volume support...

WellTrainedMonkey

This time is truly different as XLU is not the defensive stock as one would expect. Lower lows and lower highs with a declining MACD = more downside pain especially when the dividend yield of 3% pales in comparison to US2yr bills at c.4.6%.

WellTrainedMonkey

It is probably nuts to post this with less than 12hrs to go for a seemingly pivotal CPI print, but logically speaking, the CPI is a red herring. I am using the Q's as a proxy for US equities but the idea is generally applicable across multiple indices, sectors and key index heavies. Technically speaking, the Q's are testing a neckline support turned resistance...

WellTrainedMonkey

Buyers are showing up in droves as NatGas tests a massive congestion zone from 2019-2020 with significantly oversold momentum. Feels like a back-up the truck moment as Russia threatens to cut supply on price curbs.

WellTrainedMonkey

Volume has dropped off for the EURUSD as it retest the wedge breakdown, bulls be warned.

WellTrainedMonkey

Like the HSI trade idea, -2x standard deviation on the NQ1! makes it ripe for a rally. Not a bet the farm type scenario but time to think that it is so bad that it might actually be so good.

WellTrainedMonkey

Clearly not a bet the farm type situation but the HSI has traditionally staged a rally off big -2x standard deviation moves.

WellTrainedMonkey

If there is ever a chart that gives you the best equity warning signals in modern financial history, the Topix has got to be it as the 1.8k/2k level has preceded all major turning points. Couple of other warning signals for this cycle:- -> The collapse of bond prices, $ZB has broken down from a bear flag which implies interest rates are on the rise again. All...

WellTrainedMonkey

This is a public service announcement: I went for a run this morning and my condo security asked me how to buy BTC. I don't have a shoe shine boy, but this is as close as it gets. Does not help there is a negative divergence between the price action and stochastics. $BTC sitting on trend support and this is probably the time to think, are there more paper...