3600/4800 DRAFT 9-3, GOLD IS GETTING READY TO GO NOWHERE AGAIN
Introduction - As anticipated overnight, bulls didn't put enough fight in at 2365 and ferocious bears took out the 43-year trend line. While it's not even obvious they are finished yet - because Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine still see 2323-27 as possible Monday targets before rebounding - I have strong conviction that gold is getting ready to nowhere again. Complete mean reversion may take 50-60 hours, but I have little doubt that price will retrace into "THE BOX" and tag 2382 by sometime this Wednesday. This box, that I adjusted to 2355-2400 limits on Saturday, will continue to trap price to AND THROUGH May 1st FOMC. At time of publishing, this analyst thinks maybe even May 2nd and May 3rd.
Details - Continuing from DRAFT 9-2, gold ignored "consensus expectations to hold gray line". Absent more missile attacks between Israel/Iran, bears took this opportunity to push price under 43-year trend line. With price at 2335.xx at 11:53 AM as I type, bears have little to nothing left in the tank. In last notes of 9-2, I stated that bulls should tag 2367 before NY AFTERMARKET CLOSE (5 hours from now). This is still base case RIGHT NOW but I may have to update this view within the next hour.
Warning - This is a "continuously updating" forecast for FX:IDC/ICE XAUUSD spot gold ticker, limited only by the time I have to continuously update it. In my humbled opinion, price action acts like a girl you are dating that is three marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is a deception that few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else with your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.2% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, don't be a victim, trade defensively, EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make, so be aware!
Details - Continuing from DRAFT 9-2, gold ignored "consensus expectations to hold gray line". Absent more missile attacks between Israel/Iran, bears took this opportunity to push price under 43-year trend line. With price at 2335.xx at 11:53 AM as I type, bears have little to nothing left in the tank. In last notes of 9-2, I stated that bulls should tag 2367 before NY AFTERMARKET CLOSE (5 hours from now). This is still base case RIGHT NOW but I may have to update this view within the next hour.
Warning - This is a "continuously updating" forecast for FX:IDC/ICE XAUUSD spot gold ticker, limited only by the time I have to continuously update it. In my humbled opinion, price action acts like a girl you are dating that is three marks above your pay grade. She's just too good looking for you and knowing that demands all your time and attention. It's been well said that vanity is a deception that few heroes can avoid. Should you make the mistake of doing something else with your life, you'll find her doing nasty things behind your back and stab you in the back while she's doing it. The moral to the story is, should you find price action moving 0.2% in the opposite direction of the continuous forecast, don't be a victim, trade defensively, EXIT FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. At least in trading, stops are easy to make, so be aware!
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12:21, 2329.xx as I am typing... we are about to bottom now
a) so pay attention to it
b) it should be between 2323-2327
c) my call is closer to 2327 because bears wasted too much time already
a) so pay attention to it
b) it should be between 2323-2327
c) my call is closer to 2327 because bears wasted too much time already
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12:30, 2331.xx, I REALLY THINK WE SHOULD TAG 2367.XX when it moves up
a) BUT I don't know if could be done by 5 PM ET (or NY aftermarket close)
b) I would think that bulls could get there during Tokyo session tonight
c) so there's that
a) BUT I don't know if could be done by 5 PM ET (or NY aftermarket close)
b) I would think that bulls could get there during Tokyo session tonight
c) so there's that
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12:39 hold on a second, I'm not sure
a) but IF WE haven't
b) it should be close bc the hard swing up is forming
c) but NOT READY, so in theory, you could still dip to 27
a) but IF WE haven't
b) it should be close bc the hard swing up is forming
c) but NOT READY, so in theory, you could still dip to 27
Comment:
12:57 PM ET 2329.xx, and just tag 28.xx minutes a couple of minutes ago...
d) so we are looking for a sudden counter trend move to 2337 to establish bottom is in
e) we need that move while the bottom setup is still live
f) otherwise we get into another type of bottom, and it can get more complicated
d) so we are looking for a sudden counter trend move to 2337 to establish bottom is in
e) we need that move while the bottom setup is still live
f) otherwise we get into another type of bottom, and it can get more complicated
Comment:
1:10 PM 34.XX, got enough juice to make it to 38, that's all we need
a) and momentum should hit 42-43, which opens the door to 51-52 and higher
b) bulls are favored here and need to act like it
c) miss this window and it can get complicated very fast
a) and momentum should hit 42-43, which opens the door to 51-52 and higher
b) bulls are favored here and need to act like it
c) miss this window and it can get complicated very fast
Comment:
d) 1:17 PM 2330.XX, becareful here
e) if bears win this window, they will push for 2327, 2323, 2318, and 2312
f) and that could happen all at once not gradually
e) if bears win this window, they will push for 2327, 2323, 2318, and 2312
f) and that could happen all at once not gradually
Comment:
2:05 PM ET 2327.XX
g) as warned....
h) but bulls still are not dead
g) as warned....
h) but bulls still are not dead
Comment:
i) in my humbled opinion, this should be the low
j) it's really hard to imagine this going to under because we are stretched vol-wise already
k) at same time, let me check equities first
j) it's really hard to imagine this going to under because we are stretched vol-wise already
k) at same time, let me check equities first
Comment:
l) yeah, both GDX and GDXJ hit their lows early after market open
m) I saw it just hit 25.xx
n) but NQ AND ES bottomed 3 hours ago...
o) I have to believe that this is the bottom
p) so I'm leveraged long with 2324.5 stop
m) I saw it just hit 25.xx
n) but NQ AND ES bottomed 3 hours ago...
o) I have to believe that this is the bottom
p) so I'm leveraged long with 2324.5 stop
Comment:
q) 2:49 PM ET, raise stop to 2327.5
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r) in my car, I don't like why this is taking so long near the bottom
s) staying this long down there will move the trends in a big way
t) THIS IS A PROBLEM... will add notes tonight
s) staying this long down there will move the trends in a big way
t) THIS IS A PROBLEM... will add notes tonight
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3:03 PM, I'm going to take another stab at this.
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3:38, out while I'm ahead 2329.40
a) there's a problem here
b) and I can't explain it
c) it's not quite obvious as you may think ...
d) if you think we are going under
e)
a) there's a problem here
b) and I can't explain it
c) it's not quite obvious as you may think ...
d) if you think we are going under
e)
Comment:
e) I'll add notes tonight when I get back
Comment:
4:10 PM ET, another nasty daily bar that implies one more low
a) but price is already at max pain vs trend map
b) so obviously the bear call is 2310-2314 before rebounding
c) I just don't believe that you could go under in this setup during a bull market
d) BUT price has not taken up any rebound setups
e) so I have conviction that bottom is in but not enough conviction to stay long
f) when price closed that way and is not showing any interest in rebounding in aftermarket
a) but price is already at max pain vs trend map
b) so obviously the bear call is 2310-2314 before rebounding
c) I just don't believe that you could go under in this setup during a bull market
d) BUT price has not taken up any rebound setups
e) so I have conviction that bottom is in but not enough conviction to stay long
f) when price closed that way and is not showing any interest in rebounding in aftermarket
Comment:
g) so what do I think I know?
h) I see 2400 on Thursday
i) I see 2377 on Wednesday
j) which means 2360 should get hit in 20 hours or less
k) and it's 2329.52 as I type
h) I see 2400 on Thursday
i) I see 2377 on Wednesday
j) which means 2360 should get hit in 20 hours or less
k) and it's 2329.52 as I type
Comment:
l) for whatever reasons, the big money has liked to show up last 20 minutes of NY aftermarket
m) so I really want to see 2343 get hit
n) that not getting hit here is not a small problem for overall plans to June 12 FOMC
m) so I really want to see 2343 get hit
n) that not getting hit here is not a small problem for overall plans to June 12 FOMC
Comment:
o) let me put it this way, I was obviously ready for 2324 to get hit today
p) and stated that early
q) but I was not ready for 2329 to stick until now
r) what that really means is...
s) there seems to be 5 different mini cycles of price action from April to early June
t) and we just finished the second one:
p) and stated that early
q) but I was not ready for 2329 to stick until now
r) what that really means is...
s) there seems to be 5 different mini cycles of price action from April to early June
t) and we just finished the second one:
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u) no, 6 not 5 so there's 4 more
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v) 2326.xx, so NOT A SMALL PROBLEM
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w) ok to answer Fair Value Gap at 2297 question:
x) I see it much simpler:
x) I see it much simpler:
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a) in chart above, yellow route base case
b) blue route second place
c) yellow route is a very annoying development
d) why?
e) TIMING, it's everything
b) blue route second place
c) yellow route is a very annoying development
d) why?
e) TIMING, it's everything
Comment:
f) ok need to clear this up, the yellow route is NOT A MASSIVE FAVORITE
g) it's like 55/45 or less
h) why? because price is WAY OUT OF POSITION VS trend
i) so this one of those things that isn't far from a coin flip
j) but it has to be the base case because of statistics
k) I am not happy with the call as a whole, because intermediate trends DO NOT AGREE
l) which means if it moves down I don't know how it all agrees
m) but for the incoming 16-20 hours, 2288 has to be base case now
n) this is because we deal with the NOW FIRST
o) and the LATER LATER
g) it's like 55/45 or less
h) why? because price is WAY OUT OF POSITION VS trend
i) so this one of those things that isn't far from a coin flip
j) but it has to be the base case because of statistics
k) I am not happy with the call as a whole, because intermediate trends DO NOT AGREE
l) which means if it moves down I don't know how it all agrees
m) but for the incoming 16-20 hours, 2288 has to be base case now
n) this is because we deal with the NOW FIRST
o) and the LATER LATER
Comment:
6:01 PM ET 2329.XX no way, blue route is favorite until disproven
p) the vol markers are in consistent with LRC waves
q) so base case is still close to chart at top
p) the vol markers are in consistent with LRC waves
q) so base case is still close to chart at top
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r) so RIGHT NOW, 2343 should be next
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s) but the stop here should be like 27.75
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t) or 28.25
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6:33, 2327.XX, I can't call the move down.
a) bc the math doesn't make any sense
b) and if goes down I don't know what should happen after that
c) it just DOES NOT FIT
d) so I'll shut the hell up until I can prove something
a) bc the math doesn't make any sense
b) and if goes down I don't know what should happen after that
c) it just DOES NOT FIT
d) so I'll shut the hell up until I can prove something
Comment:
6:56, 2330.xx, I think bottom's in and 2360s tomorrow.
e) but I can't prove it
f) I gotta run
e) but I can't prove it
f) I gotta run
Comment:
8:55 PM ET 2330.XX
1) still can't prove it
2) let's just wait til we have something
3) right now we don't have anything
1) still can't prove it
2) let's just wait til we have something
3) right now we don't have anything
Comment:
9:46 PM ET 2309.XX yellow route after all
4) found out from my phone a few minutes ago
5) with this one, could only catch if I was in front of a screen
6) with that said target is 2288 of course
4) found out from my phone a few minutes ago
5) with this one, could only catch if I was in front of a screen
6) with that said target is 2288 of course
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7) first time target is 90 minutes out
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8) 9:53, 2296.XX maybe not that long
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9) 9:54 , 2299.xx spiraling, next 20 minutes critical
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10) for reference, next time if I post 2 options
a) and a move happen while I'm not there
b) assume it's one of the two (which should be obvious)
a) and a move happen while I'm not there
b) assume it's one of the two (which should be obvious)
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11) can we drop to 2275 and be done with this please?
12) don't have all night to watch
12) don't have all night to watch
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13) if it doesn't do it here, it should be one more similar looking stair case down
14) so 2306-2310? and then another similar looking drop
15) that is what the pattern says
14) so 2306-2310? and then another similar looking drop
15) that is what the pattern says
Comment:
16) 10:08 PM ET, 2309.XX, there's 2310, I'm kind of tired tonight
17) drank a bit too much for no reason... so Im not sharp right now
18) can't do any math so I gotta check out here
19) but be aware, that it's VERY UNLIKELY TO HAVE BOTTOMED
20) unless you AT THE VERY LEAST TAGGED 2292
21) my humbled opinion says 2288
17) drank a bit too much for no reason... so Im not sharp right now
18) can't do any math so I gotta check out here
19) but be aware, that it's VERY UNLIKELY TO HAVE BOTTOMED
20) unless you AT THE VERY LEAST TAGGED 2292
21) my humbled opinion says 2288
Comment:
22) at the same time...
23) this bounce is really incomplete as I type
23) this bounce is really incomplete as I type
Comment:
24) so with the caveat that I am under the influence
25) I'm going to call it 2319 then 2292
25) I'm going to call it 2319 then 2292
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26) take that with some salt ok?
27) I'm going to bed
27) I'm going to bed
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28) and of course, new draft tomorrow if I have time
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29) yeah, you guys are on your own tonight
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11:21 PM ET, 2301.XX, Thanks to Maverick0174...
1) he asked sometime last hour "are you ready for 2271?"
2) I didn't see it until now...
3) but I don't know if that's "obvious"
4) getting under 2288 is still difficult
5) but once under that, 2271 is the logical conclusion
6) I'm back to bed early
7) got a busy week
8) have a good night
1) he asked sometime last hour "are you ready for 2271?"
2) I didn't see it until now...
3) but I don't know if that's "obvious"
4) getting under 2288 is still difficult
5) but once under that, 2271 is the logical conclusion
6) I'm back to bed early
7) got a busy week
8) have a good night
Comment:
9) and it's also not obvious, if it gets hit...
10) that it would be today...
11) and by today, I mean tomorrow (Tuesday, bc it's still Monday night here)
10) that it would be today...
11) and by today, I mean tomorrow (Tuesday, bc it's still Monday night here)
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12) I think it would be Wednesday...
13) but whatever, good night
13) but whatever, good night
Comment:
14) meanwhile, I started this post with 3600/4800
15) bc I saw how difficult 4800 would be
16) it's obvious now, that it should be 3600/4200
17) because whether we bottom at 2292, 2288, or 2271
18) same difference vs May high, June low, July high, and August high
19) and by the time we get to June 12th FOMC...
20) it maybe completely obvious that it will be 3600/3800
15) bc I saw how difficult 4800 would be
16) it's obvious now, that it should be 3600/4200
17) because whether we bottom at 2292, 2288, or 2271
18) same difference vs May high, June low, July high, and August high
19) and by the time we get to June 12th FOMC...
20) it maybe completely obvious that it will be 3600/3800
Comment:
4/23, 12:32 AM ET, for that 6-month time frame question:
a) my personal base case this until tonight...
b) was the entry should be between May NFP release which is June 7th and
c) June FOMC, which is June 12th
d) so is not so much what price but what time (so 6/7-6/12)
e) this is because of the overall pattern to gold's bull market
f) I thought I had this pattern wrapped up...
g) but tonight's drop under 2300 has me worried
h) bc the main reason that I refused to accept the drop to 2288 as base case
i) even though I said that, and then changed my mind
j) was that had the entire route through next 21 months mapped out
k) all versions of it.... over 4200
l) now, it's going to get annoying
m) so I don't trust my perception right now
a) my personal base case this until tonight...
b) was the entry should be between May NFP release which is June 7th and
c) June FOMC, which is June 12th
d) so is not so much what price but what time (so 6/7-6/12)
e) this is because of the overall pattern to gold's bull market
f) I thought I had this pattern wrapped up...
g) but tonight's drop under 2300 has me worried
h) bc the main reason that I refused to accept the drop to 2288 as base case
i) even though I said that, and then changed my mind
j) was that had the entire route through next 21 months mapped out
k) all versions of it.... over 4200
l) now, it's going to get annoying
m) so I don't trust my perception right now
Comment:
n) typo on j) ... that "I" had the entire route ...
o) basically I have an answer that I don't trust
b) so I have no answer
o) basically I have an answer that I don't trust
b) so I have no answer
Comment:
7:48 AM, I have a bottom signal, 2291 was pretty decent. This is not very strong, but a real signal.
Comment:
7:55 AM, so a temporary signal...
a) last night, I eyeballed the move as 2319 and 2292
b) the bounce - twice - was 2315 and eventually bottomed 2291
c) but I also said I saw how we could get to 2271, but I thought breaking 2288 ...
d) is going to be difficult
f) so.. at 7:58 AM, I don't love this temporary bottom signal
g) trend waves well organized, but still have not made the turn
h) so any bounce would have a difficult time getting above 2319-2321
a) last night, I eyeballed the move as 2319 and 2292
b) the bounce - twice - was 2315 and eventually bottomed 2291
c) but I also said I saw how we could get to 2271, but I thought breaking 2288 ...
d) is going to be difficult
f) so.. at 7:58 AM, I don't love this temporary bottom signal
g) trend waves well organized, but still have not made the turn
h) so any bounce would have a difficult time getting above 2319-2321
Comment:
i) and would soon have have to test 2288 to move for 2269
Comment:
j) my problem with this move
k) original base case was 2275 on 4/16-18 after the 2432 high
l) war news got in the way twice
m) so this process is going to take an extra 7 days at the end
n) vs the 6/12 schedule, this is "NOT A SMALL PROBLEM" for me bc I have to "sync" my thesis
o) if I can't sync it, then it's just a vague idea that will be "behind the curve"
p) this mean I can only catch moves live with no base case
q) that's the difference
k) original base case was 2275 on 4/16-18 after the 2432 high
l) war news got in the way twice
m) so this process is going to take an extra 7 days at the end
n) vs the 6/12 schedule, this is "NOT A SMALL PROBLEM" for me bc I have to "sync" my thesis
o) if I can't sync it, then it's just a vague idea that will be "behind the curve"
p) this mean I can only catch moves live with no base case
q) that's the difference
Comment:
r) right this second, I don't know:
1) if we really get another low (2269), even tho it makes sense
2) or just sideways to 229X again
3) let's figure that out first
4) so we know what May rally should look like
1) if we really get another low (2269), even tho it makes sense
2) or just sideways to 229X again
3) let's figure that out first
4) so we know what May rally should look like
Comment:
5) 8:39, trend engine is calling for 2335,
6) this seems to be saying low is in
7) can't disagree with it
6) this seems to be saying low is in
7) can't disagree with it
Comment:
8:55 AM, 2308.XX CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.
1) with the caveat that my notes are only as good as my ability to update them ...
2) and for this week especially bc we are in a middle of a move down and I don't really have a base case
3) trend engine has a setup for 2333 and ...
1) with the caveat that my notes are only as good as my ability to update them ...
2) and for this week especially bc we are in a middle of a move down and I don't really have a base case
3) trend engine has a setup for 2333 and ...
Comment:
THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS DRAFT 10-1: 2333 AND 2222:
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