TLT high volume spike, after short term bullish run. Declining rate on the us treasury bonds in the broader market have given the 20 year TLT bond fund a boost over the last week. As the rates have been declining on the anticipation of a fed funds pause, the value of long term bonds has been increasing, or moreover moving up for the unrealized loss positions...
Despite the banking industry turmoil, central banks continued to raise rates last week. This marked moves from the European Central Bank (ECB) by 50Bps, Federal Reserve (Fed) by 25Bps, Bank of England by 25Bps, Swiss National Bank by 50Bps, Norway by 25Bps, the Philippines by 25Bps, and Taiwan by 12.5Bps. Central banks appear determined to show they have the tools...
Last week 1915 was a decisive resistance for price to reach 1990. Upcoming Fed Decision, Will it retest 1915 support or will it trade below 1915? Upcoming Fed Rate Decision, I am confident Fed will rise Interest rate despite having a dilemma like SVB. However, it pausible Fed will stop interest rate at 5% IF inflation rate in bearish This is based on my personal...
Last week 1915 was a decisive resistance for price to reach 1990. Upcoming Fed Decision, Will it retest 1915 support or will it trade below 1915? Upcoming Fed Rate Decision, I am confident Fed will rise Interest rate despite having a dilemma like SVB. However, it pausible Fed will stop interest rate at 5% IF inflation rate in bearish momentum. This is based on...
Just when we thought the hawkish narrative was pretty much priced in, SVB’s fallout basically threw a spanner into the hiking cycle. You’ve probably read quite a lot about the whole SVB debacle since Thursday’s trading session so we won’t harp on that. We instead want to turn your attention to two other markets that moved significantly since the SVB episode....
While it might not be the subprime/GFC “SELL” kind of situation, the real estate sector is undoubtedly facing headwinds. With the most recent Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) printing higher than consensus, maybe it’s about time we take the Fed’s hawkish commentary more seriously. To review, let us look at...
Reposting for my followers: The BOC just signaled a pause, and for the last 20 years, this told the story of what the FED did 1 week later each time. Both in 2006 and 2019, the FED also led the way in reducing the prime lending rate after the pause began.
One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913. Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same...
Today, we will share with you our estimates on the possible movement of the BTCUSDT price over the next week. Let's start with the fact that last week's trade was justified, and it is still relevant. Buyers managed to keep the price above the liquidity zone of $16400-16600. Over the next few days, we expect that buyers will find the strength for another...
I have heard both sides: 1) Historically, the Fed pivot will result in a decline in equities because they are pivoting in response to negative economic data which drags on equities, and 2) this time is different, negative economic data is positive for equites because it means inflation is on its way down. When people reference the former, for whatever reason,...
With all the chatter on the Fed Pivot, we think it’s worth exploring, what happens after a Fed Pivot or Fed Pause. Let’s break down the discussion into two camps, a Fed Pause, defined as a pause in policy rate hikes, and a Fed Pivot, loosely defined as reversal of policy rates aka rate cuts. To keep things in context, we will look at the effect of the Fed’s...
Presently, the inflation rate in the US has started falling, which increases expectations for a pivot - end of interest rate hikes. And factually, we can actually expect it. The supply of M2 Money Stock (M2SL) and its annual growth rate are decreasing. The global economy is shifting, as leading economic index (LEI) indicate. This will undoubtedly put pressure on...
The iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks the prices of 20+ year duration bonds and generally moves inversely to the 20/30 year Treasury yield. Because it gains when yields fall, it is one of the few assets that are guaranteed to appreciate during a hardcore recession or crash which warrants emergency rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The last two...
Using a 10yr -3m Inverted Yields VS. Stock market bottom recession. June 2025 is when the market will start to improve if history repeats itself.
This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th Or maybe they'll allow a brief...
A pure trend analysis of US interest rates and inflation. In my opinion, the cheap money and low inflation era has ended in the long term.
CBOT:ZQ1! We are in a rising interest rate environment. But wait, which rate are you talking about? All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. But could you really borrow money at the Fed Funds rate? If not, why is it a big deal? Most of us deal with different types of interest rates, such as those for bank deposit, mortgage loan, home equity loan, auto loan, credit...
Home Depot Inc Intraday - We look to Buy at 285.03 (stop at 271.38) Buying pressure from 265.00 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. Posted a Double Bottom formation. The reaction higher is positive and highlights a clear reversal. A weaker opening is expected to challenge bullish resolve. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Our profit targets will be...