2 day Time frame update of Quarterly DXY chart below.... DXY shown here with macro harmonics, contrasted with historic Fed Funds rate. Arrows indicate BTC cycle lows put in well below prior DXY peaks, and serves a small dose of balancing hopium in an otherwise bearish market. Fractal is taken loosely from the circled areas, with the suggested path involving...
Chart Shows quarterly DXY and Fed Fund rate, with macro shark harmonic. Terminal PRZ of T1 at 117, t2 125 region with t3 at 136-38. Would be nice to see consolidation at 115-116 back to 106-8 area as other nations begin intervention. As of this hour, GBP halted trading trading as it collapsed 3.25% ***harmonics are not a predictive tool, they are a phenomenon of...
Alternative perspective, Bull case: BTC established cycle lows in 2015 and 2018 before DXY peaked and in tightening FED environments as pointed out in this chart. Worth noting there is certainly yet a case to be made for the macro lows for BTC being already in at mid 17k. One thing that seems to characterize cycle lows in BTC, is the mass calls for still another...
DXY shown here with macro harmonics, contrasted with historic Fed Funds rate and US PMIs. Fractal is taken loosesly for the circled areas, with the suggested path involving consolidation in the 115- 105 range. Hypothesis: as developed nations step in to intervene to prop up their currencies, by tightening (central bank rate hikes like we are seeing from BOE...
CPI the Core inflation, which is the focus of most traders, rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July. Although the US inflation decreased in August; But it was still higher than economists had expected, signaling that the US Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in raising interest rates. Also Eight days before the new Federal Reserve...
This chart suggest a FED pivot arriving much sooner than some may suspect. Compared to 2016 - 2019, the fast & big drop that usually follows a euphoric peak, came much quicker for this year. Given how much money printing went on during the pandemic, it's worth considering that this might be simply the first and second Elliott Waves for commodities, but there will...
Every Time we were around this area, FED went to 5,59 %. interest rate shock times ! obvious but happy. Not correctly priced in the forward curves! it will go higher than 3,8% for sure!
Predicting that the FED FUNDS RATE will go much higher As seen in
The chart above shows the Rate of Change (over a rolling 5-period) in the Fed Funds Rate. The parabolic Rate of Change is unprecedented, yet the Federal Reserve is just getting underway with quantitative tightening as it pledges to do whatever it takes to squash high inflation. It's hard to imagine the Fed can pull off a soft landing. Ironically, this looks...
Yesterday Fed announced rate hikes by 0.75%. Market reacted with longs due to 'smaller than expected hikes', but for my opinion it's absurd and if you look at the 5th May the same happened. Rapid growth and at the next day rapid fall because the fact of the increase of Fed rates means that US500 should go downside. I expect the drop at least to 3980, but in...
Treasuries are an intersting play right now. Depending on your home currencies it still might be a good moment to consider stocking up on them in your portfolio. Couple of notes looking at the chart. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate was shown to be around 4% (per June...
The difference between US Inflation (YoY) and Fed Fund Rate reaches all time high, higher since 1955. I conclude, The Fed is really fall behind the curve (vs Inflation). The Fed must take a huge step. No wonder market worry.
This is a historic timeline showing the following: Visuals: 1. Mid-term election years (Green Vertical Lines) 2. Peak Inflation (Yellow Vertical Lines) 3. Recession (Grey box) Charts: 1. Inflation CPI 2. FedFundsRate 3. Unemployment Rate You can note that there were two similar instances where inflation was getting higher during mid-term elections (1974 and...
When growth deteriorates via Purchasing manufacturing Index, the fed is pressured into cutting rates. Although we are entering a slowdown you must be ready for growth to deteriorate and the fed to flip dovish. If and when it gets ugly, they will lower rates releasing liquidity into the system
The secular trend of Fed fund rates matches the secular trend of the Dollar. Rate hikes never undo the effects of lower rates.
Overview of the yield curve indications on potential liquidity crisis occurring in the near future and leading to downturn in equities.
Interest rates scale is on the left, plotted in orange. The last time we started hiking rates from zero, we saw a decent sell-off with the first hike. Then things became bullish with subsequent hikes, until it neared 2% where markets got volatile; and then at 2.5% where we see another sell-off. If history, that could put QQQ near -40% from ATHs. I'll be watching...
Bond yields are going to do what they normally do, which is gap in after hours resulting in a huge move in bond ETFs. Short Market, Long Yields, Short Bond Etfs. There is slight resistance at this level but I expect a large move.