Prime rates drop only when there is a crisis....why now? Our economy is sooooooo strong....right?
Charts: - Top left = SPX - Bottom left = Initial jobless claims (unemployment metric) - Top right = US 10 year and US 2 year spread (Yield curve inversion metric) - Bottom right = Fed funds rate (short-term interest rates) It is no secret that US equities are grossly overvalued, from Warren Buffet to Stanley Druckenmiller to Ray Dalio, the smart money has made...
SPX index and Fed Funds below Core CPI index analysis
Going to 0 and beyond. One of the few charts that can go in the negative. Lower highs and lower lows for 30 years. Once the market catches wind of lower interest rates it can't get enough. It's a race to the bottom for all developed world interest rates. To full investment and then what happens? The real problem is the velocity of money keeps dropping with every...
Take notice how correlated the lending rate is to the rate of fiat dollars printed. All that money was printed at 0% interest. Now, rates are going up and the printing presses are cooling down.
FED FUND CONDOR AUG 20-OCT 20 VS NOV 20 - JAN 21
Outlined in the chart is gold's reaction to 3 fed dovish fed announcements 1. A end of "autopilot" rate hikes 2. A quarter point rate cut 3. A second quarter point cut Each of these decisions lead gold higher in the medium term. In the very short term, it has formed the same pattern. An initial dump in the price of gold, followed by a small cupping shape and...
Please have a look at the last time that the FED began lowering rates; they began with 25 basis points, and they ended at ZERO percent.
Back in March of 2019 I put this out there...and here we are, getting a rate cut today !
A few weeks ago we got some nice yield inversion in the US treasury market, just like we did in Canada. I'm thinking the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate stable around here before cutting when bad nGDP data comes rolling in.
When interest rate manipulation goes too far. This coming recesssion/depression looks like it could be a bit deep
Market curve turned decidedly parabolic after FED interest rate peak around 1981. The parabolic growth of the S&P500 Index and broader stock market over the past 28 years appears to correlate with progressively declining interest rates. Every major reversal (rate increase) in the rate decline has been followed by a stall or decline in the value of $SPX. The...
Curve play is a play on the cash rate etc Historic reversals and equities
Mar 2020 Fed Funds Futures vs Actual Fed Fund Rate... its a pricing a rate cut, as Mar 2020 Fed Funds Futures get below actual Fed Fund Rate
FED FUNDS CONDOR AUG19-OCT19 vs NOV19-JAN19 (FFQ2019-FFV2019)*100-(FFX2019-FFF2020)*100
Fed Funds Rallied up from 18% to 33% on the day with Fed rosengrens hawkish comments the only likely impetus. Imo DXY here at 95 mid has an easy 50bps of topside left in it if rates can hold here at 33%, UST also seen higher across the board with the bench mark 10y yield breaking pre-brexit levels. Long DXY, and shorting $yen on rallies is the way I intend on...
This is a follow up trade to my prediction of the top for the Dollar. Check related ideas for my previous forecast. We have a very good trade setup here and the target and expected ETA is on chart. The lackluster reaction to the Fed's rate hike and the current sentiment readings make me think that this trade setup is of high probability, making it an ideal trade...