The chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations...
The chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations...
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate...
In a fortunate turn of events, inflation has calmed. For equity bulls, more good news. Yield rates have probably peaked. To stop inflation, you must cool down a HOT economy. Overconsumption tends to increase prices. In an unfortunate (?) turn of events however, the markets haven't calmed down. Some charts suggest that the markets haven't felt at all the...
Circle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles....
We all remember The Great Depression. That is a lie. Very few who live today lived when this monumental event occured. After the Roaring '20s, a decade of parabolic stock market growth and explosive demand for stocks , the cash-out came. In the Depression, people were giving out stocks for free, burning the titles. Truly a desperate action by many. Demand for...
This chart is frightening. It suggests that SPY can become a modern-day example of Galloping Gertie, the famous Tacoma Narrows Bridge which collapsed from nothing more than wind. I have said it before, 2022 was the year when an Equity Crash didn't actually happen, while we were all talking about it. It is but a scratch. But with a bleeding chopped-off arm, how...
Yield Rates represent a percentage. How much would an investor get if they invested in a US Treasury Bond. A stable economy needs three things, at least according to the FED. - Low Inflation - Low Unemployment - Strong Economy Yield Rates are the ultimate weapon of the FED. By manipulating rates they stabilize the economy accordingly. They stimulate when they...
-- Prologue -- Crises don't come when everybody expects them to. I have said this over and over again, for the last year I've been in this platform. I don't take it back. Finding out the kind of crisis that will come, the time and the severity, is hard. Trading, investing, living, is hard... Some have called me schizophrenic. This is funny. When you say what...
The scale of what is happening cannot be understated. Massive amounts of money have been printed, then burned immediately. It is as if the FED is trolling us... Or we are being trolled by our own minds. Equities reflect the mental state of investors, big and small alike. The dilemma is causing headaches, it has reached a paradoxical state. No human, not even...
Money printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard. In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities. In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this...
Japanese Currency Strength is back to 1987 levels Japan is the main source of YCC for the USA buying down bond Yields If USA raises rates any more Japan will be in free fall collapse (hyperinflation) They need to pause at worst start reducing rates. My guess? Money printer is coming back and will come back fast to save the Yen, this is not just a "Asian...
Purple droplets indicate where CPI peaks (pink line) and green arrows point to the corresponding oil peak. Blue dotted lines measure where oil peaks to allow a reference point to S&P chart. Light blue is FED Funds rate.
MMT Says "PRINTING FOR THE PEOPLE'S ECONOMY" I don't think the people like 5% inflation. KEEP PRINTING!
The point of TradingView (and being a human/trader in general) is to learn from your mistakes. I did make some mistakes. Perhaps this idea by itself is another mistake. But I cannot do any different. I must speak out about what I see. For the past year I tried to understand the pressures that are pushing prices higher, equities lower. It is important in analysis...
This year has been very boring... Lot's of horizontal movement, not many interesting news. Well, except of course that "a couple" of banks went bust. But if I didn't tell you that, you couldn't tell where in this chart this occurred... SPX, and the market in general, has been too stubborn despite the importance of the events occurring. On the one hand, this...
I am not lying. I am completely disproving my latest idea, on how to short SPX. That idea went on Editors' Picks. And I am now killing it. I am not kidding, April Fools is for fools. I don't consider me or you a fool. So I am being serious. Chart analysis is not always straightforward. Pinpointing tops and bottoms is the ultimate bet for a trader. As most of...
Ordinarily, I wouldn't contemplate them... but these *are* extraordinary times. - G-Man A bank just went broke, oops! It was certainly something we expected. With money literally burning, these kinds of events are expected. So what might be ahead of us? The rate-hike schedule went relatively smooth sailing until now. But just last week something changed... When...