Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose...
We live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides...
"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are...
The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold...
Spoiler alert, there is a lot. Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously. An easy-to-explain chart. As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when...
Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it? But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23? And another question... have equities peaked? For the past year, bonds have been...
An updated view Pattern taken from reverse symmetry. Elliott Waves Stochastic RSI Oscillators The 12 Month oscillator pushes everything upwards. Since the 3M oscillator is at it's top, we expect a short drop until mid 2023. It will be short because of the effect of the 1M oscillator as well as the 12M one. Oscillators tell us that it is probable for price...
I have posted many times regarding volatility, especially the VVIX&VIX relationship. There are times when mechanisms need to activate to stabilize the economy, the psychology, the society. Recessions, wars, pandemics are periods that may justify such actions. It is wise for an investor to understand pressures and their direction. The motto "Don't fight the FED"...
Maybe this is a massive money supply flag. We have support on the ribbon. Stochastic RSI confirms it. I don't know if this even makes sense, since CURRCIR is a subset of M2SL. On the other hand, who would have thought that in 1990s currency in circulation would increase by 50% in less than a decade. Or is there a ceiling prohibiting more increase? Also look at...
Back in the 80s, we thought that by 2020 we would have an automated oven and flying cars. All we got is a money printer, and we liked it. We played with it a lot. And this year for Christmas, who wouldn't like some more printer ammo? Since high inflation cannot ensure social stability, we have only one option. Lower inflation. That is the motto of the FED, the...
I would like to do some qualitative analysis on VVIX/VIX, and it's behavior/effect on markets. We will try to pinpoint some "wave types". A. The most consistent/stable growth for SPX occurs in times of stable VIX and stable VVIX. Their ratio remains the same. B. At times of decreasing VIX and increasing VVIX, we have an unstable, impulsive upwards wave. This...
Oh yeah, inflation... Just how much though??? One of the main "benefactors" for inflation is money supply. Printing money fast and not managing it to create growth, is bad... unsurprisingly. For the last 2 years, an astronomical amount of money was printed. But have we seen it's effect? To figure out these HOT questions, we use charts. Opinions don't do us any...
Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting! I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments! As per my last analysis (attached on the chart) FEDFUNDS traded higher and...
The Fed money tightening policies are using interest-rates as a lever to fix a balance sheet problem. Higher rates feed right back into the CPI, initiating the doom loop. After the financial crisis of 2008, The Fed employed a policy action to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 0-0.25% for seven-(7) years, during which time the CPI fell. Post-pandemic...
CBOT:ZQ1! We are in a rising interest rate environment. But wait, which rate are you talking about? All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. But could you really borrow money at the Fed Funds rate? If not, why is it a big deal? Most of us deal with different types of interest rates, such as those for bank deposit, mortgage loan, home equity loan, auto loan, credit...
Bears and Bulls await for the "Great Reset" (or as the Fed might state: "financial accident") that will lead to the Fed Pivot. The question is where (and when) will the pivot occur? "Watch your step while peering into the abyss. The cliff edge is crumbling faster and is closer than we realize..."
The Federal reserve stepped in to control inflation by increasing interest rates. It looks like the decades long trend channel has been broken upwards. Fed reserve is definitely going above parameters, I bet even they didnt expect to go above. Im guessing deflation is coming followed by stagnation, I hope i'm wrong.
When capitulation arrives, markets will explode. Exploding the rampant fraud and exposing the ponzi like a pinata being popped, spewing candy out.