akikostas

akikostas Updated 

Markets are liquid. Liquids, by definition, move. Some of them have moved tremendously well. These liquids got so strong that they are now considered to be gasses. Unfortunately for them, gasses are not very dense. They are light and weak. Apple is the prime example of this important paradigm change. Until ~2005 Apple tried to strengthen and it magnificently...

akikostas Updated 

Speculative bubbles excite traders and investors alike. NVDA is the absolute winner of the AI craze. Craze is the sentiment of the market cycle peak. After craze and euphoria, fear and denial will inevitably flood our minds. It is nothing more than the never-ending cycle of the economy. A simple line drawn on a chart spells the ultimate demise for...

akikostas Updated 

The weakest minion can terminate the Apple dominion. Apples, like all fruit, are born to serve two purposes. To spread the apple species and to feed birds, worms and humans. The life of the apple is interesting to watch. It began as a tiny seed in the fields of NASDAQ in 1980, weighing at $0.39 (or grams). Now the apple has grown to be almost 800 grams. That...

akikostas Updated 

Crypto analysis is almost entirely based on models. Models that work, until they don't. 1st Law of Trading: Models and "laws" like the power law, stop working when everybody agrees on them. 2nd Law of Trading: The 1st Law is a paradox. 3rd Law of Trading: There are no laws. 4th Law of Trading: This statement is false. Aaaaand I broke AI. (Portal 2 would...

akikostas Updated 

SPX has been breaking new records the past few months. But with inflation also breaking new records, it is not the time to relief. As you will soon realize, SPX is not out of the storm for now. Inflationary pressures have caused a caving in profits. After inflation has (temporarily?) calmed, the broad market has recovered significantly. Gold, Equities and...

akikostas Updated 

Traders have made the ultimate mistake, they were caught sleeping on the steering wheel. And after missing the trend, they attempt to enter it again, only to realize that they have trapped themselves. A question arises: Were they sleeping or are they performing a suicide attack? SPX is like a sharp kamikaze plane. Perhaps of Japanese origin, closing in to Perl...

akikostas Updated 

Valentines day is usually a day of love. For TSLA, Valentines of 2024 was a story of hate. Markets go through cycles. They feel the absolute euphoria in the peak, and get suicidal in the bottom. When you tell them what they want, they treat you like a god. Some have certainly praised me. When you tell them what you objectively see, they despise you. Some have...

akikostas Updated 

There was the time, when one investor decided to invest in a single stock. That investor was one of the victims of The Great Depression. And they learned an important lesson, to split up their investment in multiple stocks to reduce risk. And so, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was born. MMT is an algorithm one can apply to reduce risk and improve profits. Mutual...

akikostas Updated 

Crypto is an experiment. A new way for illegal payments to be more accessible to the masses. Decentralization is a fancy way of saying that Bitcoin is digital black money. Black is the color banks are allergic to. Is Bitcoin strong enough to battle against Banks? To follow its paradigm, 23 thousand more coins have been opportunistically created. Each one of...

akikostas Updated 

In a fortunate turn of events, inflation has calmed. For equity bulls, more good news. Yield rates have probably peaked. To stop inflation, you must cool down a HOT economy. Overconsumption tends to increase prices. In an unfortunate (?) turn of events however, the markets haven't calmed down. Some charts suggest that the markets haven't felt at all the...

akikostas Updated 

Going against the norm. Modeling stock markets using non-normal distributions. That is the only way to take into account the massive volatility that markets can reach. arxiv.org Laplace Distributions manage to analyze prices better than normal ones. It is, as if, stock market is not normal, as in abnormal. As if it defies all physics. 2020 surely suggests that....

akikostas Updated 

Circle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles....

akikostas Updated 

We all remember The Great Depression. That is a lie. Very few who live today lived when this monumental event occured. After the Roaring '20s, a decade of parabolic stock market growth and explosive demand for stocks , the cash-out came. In the Depression, people were giving out stocks for free, burning the titles. Truly a desperate action by many. Demand for...

akikostas Updated 

This chart is frightening. It suggests that SPY can become a modern-day example of Galloping Gertie, the famous Tacoma Narrows Bridge which collapsed from nothing more than wind. I have said it before, 2022 was the year when an Equity Crash didn't actually happen, while we were all talking about it. It is but a scratch. But with a bleeding chopped-off arm, how...

akikostas Updated 

Our bodies tend to grow as we age. Our minds and skills also tend to grow as we age. Some skills however, never grow. A child may draw a line. It can be squiggly, but still, a line. It doesn't change much as we age though. An analyst can pretend to be a pro, just by drawing a single line. Crazy right? Two lines, one straight, one curvy. Both lead us to the...

akikostas Updated 

Every chart describes a story. Inflation can be tracked using producer-prices and consumer-prices. Equities are affected by consumer inflation, while commodities by producer inflation. Many of the worlds largest companies are selling services, not commodities. The ratio of the two on the chart above, shows that long-term production cost of commodities is...

akikostas Updated 

Don't judge a book from it's cover. Read on and soon, you will find out who the real winner might be. The explosive crypto mania was born because of Bitcoin. It is the reason myriads of alt-coins are now traded every day. From the countless of alternatives, one became strong enough to constitute an alternative to the coin that started it all. Ethereum...

akikostas Updated 

Yield Rates represent a percentage. How much would an investor get if they invested in a US Treasury Bond. A stable economy needs three things, at least according to the FED. - Low Inflation - Low Unemployment - Strong Economy Yield Rates are the ultimate weapon of the FED. By manipulating rates they stabilize the economy accordingly. They stimulate when they...