In 2021, as the US central bank and the Secretary of the Treasury continued to call rising inflation a “transitory” and pandemic-inspired event, the bond market declined. Bonds watched prices rise while the economists were pouring over stale data. Meanwhile, the Fed and government planted inflationary seeds that sprouted during the second half of 2020, bloomed in 2021, and grew into wild weeds in 2022. The consumer and producer price data began to flash a warning sign in 2021, with the economic condition rising to the highest level in over four decades. The Fed and the Treasury finally woke up. While the Biden administration was already “woke,” the data awakened them to a point where late last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted “transitory” was a mistake. However, there was no admission and self-realization that monetary and fiscal policies created the inflation, and ignoring the warning signs only made it worse.
The bond market was far ahead of the Fed and the Treasury, which should have been another warning sign. Consumer and producer prices have skyrocketed, and the central bank is using demand-side tools to address the economic fallout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation have only exacerbated the inflationary pressures, as they create supply-side issues making demand-side solutions impotent.
The Biden administration blames the rise in energy prices on Russia, but they were already rising before the invasion and sanctions. The shift in US energy policy to a greener path is equally responsible for record-high gasoline and other fuel prices.
At the end of 2021, a conventional 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage was just below the 3% level, and in less than six months, it rose to 5.5%. On a $300,000 loan, the move increases the monthly payment by $625, a significant rise. We are in the early days of an economic storm that began with the pandemic, continued with a lethargic Fed and government officials, and was exacerbated by the first major war in Europe since WW II. We have not seen the peak of the storm clouds gathering for more than two years.
A storm forecast from JP Morgan Chase’s leader
Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, called Bitcoin a “fraud.” A few short years ago, he said he would fire any trader “stupid” enough to trade cryptocurrencies on the bank’s behalf. As recently as late 2021, he said he believes Bitcoin is “worthless.” So far, he has been dead wrong on the asset class. The financial institution he heads replaced real estate with cryptocurrencies in late May, calling them a “preferred alternative asset.”
In his latest comments on markets across all asset classes, Mr. Dimon issued a warning. Quantitative tightening that will ramp up to $95 billion in reduced Fed bond holdings and the Ukraine war led him to tell market participants, “You’d better brace yourself. JP Morgan is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.” He began by saying, “You know, I said there’s storm clouds, but I’m going to change it…it’s a hurricane.” Mr. Dimon believes QT and the war create substantial changes in the global flow of funds, with an uncertain impact. The leading US bank’s CEO is prepared for “at a minimum, huge volatility.”
His forecast on cryptos aside, the warning is a call to action. There is still time to hedge portfolios and establish a plan for the coming storm. Volatility is a nightmare for passive inventors, but it creates a paradise of opportunities for nimble disciplined traders with their fingers on the pulse of markets.
Bonds are sitting near the lows
Quantitative tightening not only removes the put under the bond market that had supported government-issued fixed income instruments since early 2020, but it also puts downward pressure on bonds and upward pressure on interest rates further out along the yield curve.
The long-term chart of the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures highlights the decline to the most recent low of 134-30, declining below the October 2018 136-16 low, and falling to the lowest level since July 2014. At the 135-20 level on June 10, the bonds are sitting close to an eight-year low, with the next technical support level at the December 2013 127-23 low.
The Fed’s FOMC meets on June 14 and 15
The market expects the US Federal Reserve to increase the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points this week at the June meeting. The move will put the short-term rate at the 1.25% to 1.50% level.
The Fed remains far behind the inflationary curve, with CPI and PPI data at an over four-decade high and coming in hotter each past month. While the central bank determines the short-term rate, the bond market has been screaming for the Fed to catch up, warning that inflationary pressures were mounting. The bottom fell out of the long bond futures in 2022 as the Fed began to tighten credit. However, the Fed’s economists will only put the short-term rate at 1.50%, with inflation running at many times that level. A 75 basis move to 1.75% would shock the market, which is not a path the Central Bank wants to follow.
Higher rates are on the horizon
The Fed may have awakened, realizing it must use monetary policy tools to address inflation, but the central bank remains groggy and slow to adjust rates to levels that would choke off rising prices. The economists do not have an easy job as they face supply-side economic problems created by the war in Ukraine. Had they been more agile in 2021 and nipped the rising inflation in the bud with a series of rate hikes, the US Fed would be better positioned to address what has become a no-win situation. The war has caused energy and food prices to soar with no central bank tools to manage the situation.
Last week, gasoline rose to a new high, crude oil was over $120 per barrel, natural gas was over $9.65 per MMBtu, and grain prices remained at elevated levels. Rate hikes and lower bond prices are not likely to cause prices to fall as US energy policy, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation are supply-side issues that leave the central bank with few answers. Higher food and energy prices will keep the inflationary spiral going and will continue to push bond prices lower.
Expect lots of volatility in markets
The US and the world face an unprecedented period that began with the 2020 global pandemic. Artificially low interest rates and the government stimulus that addressed the pandemic were inflationary seeds. The pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks exacerbated the inflationary pressures. A shift in US energy policy increased OPEC and Russia’s pricing power in traditional energy markets.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has turbocharged the economic condition, making a solution challenging for the central bank. The current US Treasury Secretary, and former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, once said that monetary policy works together with the government’s fiscal policies. In the current environment, fiscal policy and the geopolitical landscape have become the most significant factors for rising inflation.
Jamie Dimon is worried, and the head of the leading US financial institution is battening down the hatches on his balance sheet for a storm. Even though he was mistaken about cryptos, we should heed his warning and hope he is wrong. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes, which are highly uncertain in June 2022.
Hedge those portfolios, and make sure you develop a plan for any risk positions. Expect the unexpected because 2022 is anything but a typical year in markets across all asset classes. Fasten your seatbelts for what could be a wild and turbulent ride over the coming months.
--
Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
- A storm forecast from JP Morgan Chase’s leader
- Bonds are sitting near the lows
- The Fed’s FOMC meets on June 14 and 15
- Higher rates are on the horizon
- Expect lots of volatility in markets
The bond market was far ahead of the Fed and the Treasury, which should have been another warning sign. Consumer and producer prices have skyrocketed, and the central bank is using demand-side tools to address the economic fallout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation have only exacerbated the inflationary pressures, as they create supply-side issues making demand-side solutions impotent.
The Biden administration blames the rise in energy prices on Russia, but they were already rising before the invasion and sanctions. The shift in US energy policy to a greener path is equally responsible for record-high gasoline and other fuel prices.
At the end of 2021, a conventional 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage was just below the 3% level, and in less than six months, it rose to 5.5%. On a $300,000 loan, the move increases the monthly payment by $625, a significant rise. We are in the early days of an economic storm that began with the pandemic, continued with a lethargic Fed and government officials, and was exacerbated by the first major war in Europe since WW II. We have not seen the peak of the storm clouds gathering for more than two years.
A storm forecast from JP Morgan Chase’s leader
Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, called Bitcoin a “fraud.” A few short years ago, he said he would fire any trader “stupid” enough to trade cryptocurrencies on the bank’s behalf. As recently as late 2021, he said he believes Bitcoin is “worthless.” So far, he has been dead wrong on the asset class. The financial institution he heads replaced real estate with cryptocurrencies in late May, calling them a “preferred alternative asset.”
In his latest comments on markets across all asset classes, Mr. Dimon issued a warning. Quantitative tightening that will ramp up to $95 billion in reduced Fed bond holdings and the Ukraine war led him to tell market participants, “You’d better brace yourself. JP Morgan is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.” He began by saying, “You know, I said there’s storm clouds, but I’m going to change it…it’s a hurricane.” Mr. Dimon believes QT and the war create substantial changes in the global flow of funds, with an uncertain impact. The leading US bank’s CEO is prepared for “at a minimum, huge volatility.”
His forecast on cryptos aside, the warning is a call to action. There is still time to hedge portfolios and establish a plan for the coming storm. Volatility is a nightmare for passive inventors, but it creates a paradise of opportunities for nimble disciplined traders with their fingers on the pulse of markets.
Bonds are sitting near the lows
Quantitative tightening not only removes the put under the bond market that had supported government-issued fixed income instruments since early 2020, but it also puts downward pressure on bonds and upward pressure on interest rates further out along the yield curve.
The long-term chart of the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures highlights the decline to the most recent low of 134-30, declining below the October 2018 136-16 low, and falling to the lowest level since July 2014. At the 135-20 level on June 10, the bonds are sitting close to an eight-year low, with the next technical support level at the December 2013 127-23 low.
The Fed’s FOMC meets on June 14 and 15
The market expects the US Federal Reserve to increase the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points this week at the June meeting. The move will put the short-term rate at the 1.25% to 1.50% level.
The Fed remains far behind the inflationary curve, with CPI and PPI data at an over four-decade high and coming in hotter each past month. While the central bank determines the short-term rate, the bond market has been screaming for the Fed to catch up, warning that inflationary pressures were mounting. The bottom fell out of the long bond futures in 2022 as the Fed began to tighten credit. However, the Fed’s economists will only put the short-term rate at 1.50%, with inflation running at many times that level. A 75 basis move to 1.75% would shock the market, which is not a path the Central Bank wants to follow.
Higher rates are on the horizon
The Fed may have awakened, realizing it must use monetary policy tools to address inflation, but the central bank remains groggy and slow to adjust rates to levels that would choke off rising prices. The economists do not have an easy job as they face supply-side economic problems created by the war in Ukraine. Had they been more agile in 2021 and nipped the rising inflation in the bud with a series of rate hikes, the US Fed would be better positioned to address what has become a no-win situation. The war has caused energy and food prices to soar with no central bank tools to manage the situation.
Last week, gasoline rose to a new high, crude oil was over $120 per barrel, natural gas was over $9.65 per MMBtu, and grain prices remained at elevated levels. Rate hikes and lower bond prices are not likely to cause prices to fall as US energy policy, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation are supply-side issues that leave the central bank with few answers. Higher food and energy prices will keep the inflationary spiral going and will continue to push bond prices lower.
Expect lots of volatility in markets
The US and the world face an unprecedented period that began with the 2020 global pandemic. Artificially low interest rates and the government stimulus that addressed the pandemic were inflationary seeds. The pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks exacerbated the inflationary pressures. A shift in US energy policy increased OPEC and Russia’s pricing power in traditional energy markets.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has turbocharged the economic condition, making a solution challenging for the central bank. The current US Treasury Secretary, and former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, once said that monetary policy works together with the government’s fiscal policies. In the current environment, fiscal policy and the geopolitical landscape have become the most significant factors for rising inflation.
Jamie Dimon is worried, and the head of the leading US financial institution is battening down the hatches on his balance sheet for a storm. Even though he was mistaken about cryptos, we should heed his warning and hope he is wrong. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes, which are highly uncertain in June 2022.
Hedge those portfolios, and make sure you develop a plan for any risk positions. Expect the unexpected because 2022 is anything but a typical year in markets across all asset classes. Fasten your seatbelts for what could be a wild and turbulent ride over the coming months.
--
Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.