QuantumLogicTrading
Long

LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long XAUUSD:

1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily.

2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level.

3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although risk-off assets on the year are still heavily bid up some 20% even at these levels thus a pull back may be justified - nonetheless for this particular strat trade this is less relevant given the tactical nature

Trading Strategy:

1. Sell XAUUSD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher.

Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Am I right in saying that trading this strategy this particular time would have resulted in net loss due to the very small daily bid candle? Plus the candle before you would have bought into and it dropped quite significantly.
Reply
I personally took profit on the next daily close.. when the first green bar is flat i take the next bar as profit taking has to come at some point, the first green bar just indicated the selling was stalling, the second was more what i was looking for. but yes this strategy can lose obviously but the winners are more than the losers - the same day/ week i took 500pips on usdjpy .

Reply
Hi QLT,
Just a Question here - So this is a long strategy, where we BUY at Market - If the market trades against us, we add x2 to the position, wait for the retracement and Target next higher close?
Why in the Trading Strategy section do you say Sell XAU? Thanks very much, just keen to understand if I get this or not,

David
Reply
HI David,

Yes sorry, the short is a typo - you buy Gold after the 6th red bar lower which was at 1268, then we either TP if we close on the daily higher OR we add 2x long if we close lower on the daily against us. Say if we closed lower from 3 days it would go - 1lot, 2lots 4lots 8lots but its very unlikely to, nonetheless thats why i stress to keep the first trades ultra small!

Let me know if theres anything else.
Reply
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