The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision.
September FED meeting
US fixed income and stock markets are preparing to lose cushion as Fed may announce the onset of balance-sheet cut at the meeting on Wednesday. Termination of reinvestment policy and a smooth shedding of securities means a complete switching off of the "rescue mode” which has been regulator’s state for about a decade.
The market practically ...
DXY has closed this month with a bearish candle and also closed dead-on the same price as the previous month's lows. This suggest strong bearish pressure and with the Fed rate decision today, NFP on Friday and increasing uncertainty around Trump's policies, we could see continued bearish price action for the dollar in the coming months. Today's US interest rate ...
FOMC rate hike and hawkish sentiment has seen some long standing supports broken. Fibonacci target 1.02 first then beyond parity towards the middle of 2017
a strong bearish close below 0.73700 will present a shorting opportunity for Aussie. a pull back with multiple rejections of Fibonacci will also provide good opportunity. see chart for targets
After FOMC yesterday dollar has now showed some expected strength. This market looks like it going short. I am currently stalking any opportunities to go short on this particular pair. An ideal scenario would be fro the market to pull back up to 0.71400 area where major resistance waiting in the form of Fibonacci and moving averages. if market can get up there ...
Hello Traders,
The market is in a range with price action lacking a firm direction and clearly waiting for a fundamental factor to drive it in either direction. The FOMC meeting tomorrow will be such a driver and we have two outcomes below along with our rationale.
Outcome 1 - Rate Hike and Bullish Press Conference - 65% Likelihood: We favour a bullish statement ...
Buy area coming in at around at 96 price level. Will watch for a bullish reversal here and aim to buy the USD against EUR or NZD, or maybe something else depending on price action at the time. USD long trade backed up by hawkish FED after this month's relatively upbeat FOMC statement.
Preparing for a Trump win
Following Friday and the FBIs decision to re-open the case on Hilary I have decided I am going to assume A Trump win, this is for several reasons:
FBI
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv3sc7jVYAAoTA0.jpg:large
1) After reading into it, the reopening of the FBI case implies one of three things imo - 1. They have found new significant ...
LONG USDJPY:
1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows.
USD risks are bid
1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 ...
Opec to cut or not to cut?
* I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.*
1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective.
2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to ...
Presidential Election - Trump wins - MXN more sensitive than USD, Yen to pick up the risk-off shift:
1. Positioning for a trump win is much more interesting than a hilary win but nonetheless both should be profitable at some level. My number 1 position will be SHORT MXNJPY for a number of reasons 1) MXN has been very sensitive to the USD election given trade ...
Long XAUUSD:
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level.
3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although ...
The $ and Fed funds remains flat on the day (Dec 56%) despite somewhat hawkish comments from Lockhart, and in particular putting November on the table.. though the market realistically has Nov priced fairly at 10% given a hike here wouldnt make much sense vs Dec. Fed Powell on the otherhand was much more neutral, offering little but more uncertainty/ data ...
USD has traded relatively flat following the slew of Fed speakers in the past 8hrs - despite Dec Fed Funds steepening aggressively from <50% implied probability to 56% probability of a hike. Perhaps more interestingly though, is that a fed hike has never happened in the past unless fed funds have priced 50% and recently we have traded below this figure which makes ...
We have seen some EUR strength and are approaching the 23.6 fib level but there is some traffic in the way of moves higher. The level to look out for would be the psychological 1.13 handle which is in close proximity of the 23.6. Keep an eye on is the fact that the EUR is overbought against many of its crosses so this may cause a pullback.
Fed Yellen Speech:
Yellen: Current Policy Should Help Economy Move Toward Goals
Yellen: Welcome Development That More People Seeking Jobs, Unemployment Measures Steady
Yellen: Household Spending Key Source Of Economic Growth
Yellen: Fully Committed To Achieving 2% Inflation Objective
Yellen: Recent Pickup In Growth, Labor Market Strengthen Case For Rate ...
USDJPY:
1. Price action immediately following BOJ this september was more than erratic but at the same time showed some consistency for those of you who can remember back to Julys performance - we moved instantly lower on the decision to 101 flat, before ripping 180pips higher to 102.8 to then lose most of the bids and trade back to the 101 base.
2. The BOJ ...
