QuantumLogicTrading
Long

LONG EURNZD: STRAT TRADE - 99.49% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL *

FX:EURNZD   Euro / New Zealand Dollar
Long EURNZD:

1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD             has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily.

2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m             and 2wk all above 1SD.

3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral stance where monpol easing looks to be coming to an end.

4. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.52 level, though not quite yearly lows (as in GBPNZD             ) but still a firm level which is more likely than not to attract some bids.

Trading Strategy:

1. Buy EURNZD             at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close lower from here. Start in small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower. TP is the next daily close higher.
Comment: EURNZD 2x Longs added on the 6th daily close higher to trade 0.22% higher currently
You say that there is a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5% yet on this chart (expanded to date) it does so three times. Is it best to trade the strategy when you get a sixth close lower and enter on the sixth lower candle?
Reply
on the screen i only see 6days happen once.. this trade was trading the 6th day lower, you can see the candle start for the 6th day. If you work out the cum probabilities for the last 16yrs of daily closes you will see what i mean.

If you are talking about the full date range then yes 3 times is likely to happen. the cum prob looks at the event of 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 day runs.. 1,2,3,4,5 are all more likely than 6 hence they make up the bulk of the 99% then 6+ make up the rest.
Reply
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